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Ah impossible to keep up with these crossposts. I have to go teach, so I can respond to everything I'm already late, but two things.
scooter Wrote:4. Lewwyn (iffy about this one, but so much surrounding him just seems really odd, and it's confusing that he's totally out of the spotlight now after being involved in some mildly strange things yesterday)
scooter Wrote:4. Lewwyn - only reason he's on this list is his unorthodox day 1 coupled with him dropping off the radar today for unknown reasons.
I went to sleep after the seer-kill, I went to work in the morning. I played my PBEM turn and write up, I ate lunch, I just check in here again, and now I have to go teach again... I don't see how I'm avoiding posting. And I can't control others not putting the spotlight on me. Shine baby Shine!
Gotta run. I'll post more after work, okay? 
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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Roland Wrote:Oh. My. God. Bruindane, I literally laughed out loud at that one. Thank you. Good thing I wasn't drinking! I would have shot Sprite out my nose all over my big wide-screen monitor. :P
In line with my previous post, could you elaborate a bit on why each of those people are on your list?
Glad you liked it 
Irgy put pressure on Fire & Ice on Day 1 at a time when I thought it was obvious he was non-power role villager and thereby setting up a wolf-less MJW vs Fire & Ice vote off. He voted for MJW.
Mr Nice Guy was part of the MJW voting block and doesn't post a lot. Now I do agree with Irgy above, that post counts have a tenuous connection with being a wolf. However, I'd rather be wrong on low post villager than a high post villager.
Selrahc is a well meaning <censored> if he's a villager. Sorry, but that's how I feel. He essentially telegraphed that he wasn't the seer/baner/mason to the wolves and since he had an identical vote/comment footprint with Bobchillingsworth he might have been hit instead (which I suppose was his intent). He voted for MJW.
Gold Ergo Sum basically had a non-vote against Sandover. Now I understand he's busy which puts him in the same category with Mr Nice Guy.
Sandover was so incredibly aggressive in hunting "wolves" day one, that I thought he must be a non-seer/baner role villager. Nobody bothered to check the wolf hunter's credentials, except a "safe" vote from Gold Ergo Sum.
Now I am not accusing anyone right now except Mr Nice Guy, who hasn't answered my query regarding Irgy's fur.
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Roland Wrote:Actually, the only reason I haven't put any pressure on JKaen yet is because he's new.
Personally I don't put any stock in that thinking. Well, a little, but it's basically a last priority for me. But we're all different, aren't we. Nice to actually hear a reason from someone though.
scooter Wrote:I was most certainly not doing that. I am often annoyed by that kind of thought line, so I do my best not to do anything like that. The advice you gave was objectively bad advice (definitely not opinion), and to me, the only benefit in writing something like that is to subtly deceive the baner. Obviously you could have simply forgotten about the void-role like you said, but from knowing you behind the scenes of last game, it's definitely not your style to totally forget about a role - you were pretty on top of things last game.
You know what, you're probably right. Given the voider there was no merit to my statement at all. For what it's worth, I'm intelligent but absent minded. I won't often make a logical error, but I will make bad assumptions and certainly forget things from time to time.
scooter Wrote:Honestly Irgy, I am well aware that most of what I wrote is pretty "eh" in terms of concrete-ness, especially the contradiction. I'll concede that. Honestly, I feel we have nothing solid and the game is spinning out of control a bit, and it's very annoying... This being a villager thing is much more difficult than I thought . Despite the fact that I admit the evidence on you is iffy, I still don't see a better option. If you can come up with some better evidence on someone else, then I am very open-minded right now because I'm pretty confused as to who to lynch at the moment.
Well our opinions on the subject have converged by the sound of it. How dull
As for evidence of someone else, I'm not likely to be able to help you. This is still the evidence gathering part of the game, not the evidence having or evidence using, so to speak.
Speaking of converging opinons:
Roland Wrote:Oh no, I agree 100%. I'm just saying that it really doesn't matter who he protects, in the end - it's literally a pass/fail situation, depending entirely upon whether or not the 'Wolves figure out who he is. Which sucks for us. As for protecting the 'Wolves target, yes - but just how do we know who that is? We can speculate all day long about who they'll choose and why, but bottom line is they can always just pick someone at random. For all we know, that's how Bob died - random guess.
I guess I was trying to say that our Baner has to be extremely lucky in figuring out who their target is going to be, AND hope they don't find him. It's bad enough trying to guess who they might target, but he can't take the safe road and just protect himself. I mean, I understand he's still valuable, but it's entirely chance-based at this point - which is frustrating, if only because we're in the same boat in trying to find the 'Wolves and we're obviously struggling. I guess I just don't see the Baner as being in any better a situation than the rest of us, and the additional unenviable position of knowing that should they ever find him, he's as sure a goner as anyone else. That Void Wolf really knocks the wind out of our sails.
Well I'd agree with all that. The worst thing is, with an odd number of players, we don't gain another safe-lynch from just one baner success. We do gain a better majority on each day that we have one, and a confirmed villager for a little while, but we need two successes for an extra lynch mistake's worth of leeway, and that's particularly unlikely.
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And none of what I posted actually gets us anywhere for today. Did you know, this page, the entire previous page, and half of the page before have not a single vote. We need some more action guys! Except I don't really want to change my vote yet, none of the other options are appealing that much to me at the moment and it's not yet time to start picking votes that "count" by jumping on one fo the vote leaders.
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...right, caught up now, and I envoke the Lewwyn defense (I was asleep). If it helps people work out hidden motives I am in Cairo (GMT+2)
Now the problem with me posting in depth discussions is that most of the back and forth seems to go on when I am in bed, hence comments such as:
"I would expect the void wolf to target the werewolf target each night, so the baner should protect somebody else"
"It's pretty unlikely that the wolves would all gang up on day 2 to vote for a single person"
have already been made by others.
I guess the next logical thing is to try and rip Irgy's approach to me being a wolf apart?
Hypothesis 1: The wolves will have spread there votes out evenly across targets
Response: I see no reason for this, from what we know about WW2, the wolves voted independently of each other. I guess logic says with so many on MJW there is a good chance of one being a wolf, but you could just as well takent he suspicous Cull run votes to select your wolf list from. So I will consider this arbitary
Hypothesis 2: A wolf would hide in the middle group
Response: I can see some logic in this, but bear in mind the way you chose the 3 groups was fairly arbitary, 1 more post from Selrahc for example would place him in that group with me too. But I guess this part his minor weight
Hypothesis 3: Of Serdoa or Jkaen it makes sense to vote Jkaen.
Response: The reason you give for this is you know more about his personality.... care to enlighten us what this means, and how it makes him less wolf like than me? again fairly arbitary.
So in resolution, I am willing to concede there is a reasonable chance that somebody in the list Meiz, Sareln, fire&ice, uberfish, Serdoa, Mardoc, Jkaen,
Bruindane, Sandover. is a Wolf
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Jkaen Wrote:So in resolution, I am willing to concede there is a reasonable chance that somebody in the list Meiz, Sareln, fire&ice, uberfish, Serdoa, Mardoc, Jkaen, Bruindane, Sandover. is a Wolf
Attempting to lynch the narrator won't do much for you this game. Just sayin'.
Blog | EitB | PF2 | PBEM 37 | PBEM 45G | RBDG1
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Gold Ergo Sum Wrote:Holy crap, Rowain has 50+ posts. I would've never guessed. He seems to be running pretty below the radar for such activity.
Posting the tallys does inflate my pc. I guess if you substract ~10 you have my real postcount. Besides as Selrahc pointed out it is the content that matters.
Speaking of the Tally:
Lynch:
4v: Mardoc ( novice, Meiz, zakalwe, Lewwyn )
3v: Mr Nice Guy ( Jkaen, Bruindane, Fire & Ice )
2v: Pocketbeetle ( Rowain, Mardoc )
2v: Selrahc ( Ichabod, uberfish )
1v: Jkaen ( Irgy )
1v: Lewwyn ( Gold ergo sum)
1v: sandover ( Cull )
1v: novice ( Mr Nice Guy )
1v: Irgy ( scooter )
5 Not voted:
Selrahc, Serdoa, Sandover, Pocketbeetle, Roland
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Sareln because clearly without him the wolves would have nobody giving them a stage
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Dear villagers:
Looking at the current lynch count makes me sad. We are far too spread around making it very easy for the wolves.
I come here to ask you to support my idea of lynching Pocketbeetle. I have a theory about some wolves and I would like to test it.
No, I can not guarrantee that he is a wolf - I'm not an omniscient, infailable oracle but imo he is the best target we have.
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There's so much junk in this thread. Useless theory this, useless theory that. All words. We need action.
I want to lynch Novice. Yes, our dear major. I know, I had a major vote on him for a while. I moved it to Rowain once I realised who he really was, though. At that time it was too late in the day to really do something about it, but today is another day!
For those of you disbelievers, let me remind you that this is the guy who so forcefully tried to fish out our baner:
novice Wrote:Worst baner ever.
Sandover out.
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