Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[Jkaen]

Attempting to lynch the narrator won't do much for you this game. Just sayin'.

You do seem to have a suspiciously good knowledge of what the wolves are doing

(ok so I forgot to edit the middle number of posts list)

[Serdoa]

Ok, now more seriously: I really am suspicious of Roland. He normally is very eloquent and even gives you 5 sentences answer when you yourself wrote one. And still his answer to this long post from Mardoc is:

That has got to be one of the most straw-reaching posts I've seen in any of the three WW games - and I should know, because I think I made a few of my own.

I'm not saying I don't suspect one or two people on your list Mardoc, but your whole argument is so circumstantial it's just flat-out full of holes.

I applaud you for your efforts, but honestly, I can't say I find your supporting "evidence" any stronger than a house of cards.

It might be understandable that Roland discards Mardocs post, but doing that by simply stating "it is full of holes"? That does not coincide with his normal style. I would rather assume that Mardoc was not that far from the truth and that at least 2 people out of his list are indeed wolves and that Roland is another one, trying to save them. Therefore Roland

[Meiz]

Mardoc, thanks for the post. While most of the content made me literally smile (people at the office are looking me weirdly btw.), it screams to me as writings of an inexperienced WW player. So despite what I said at the start of the day, [strike]Mardoc[/strike].

Fortunately we have plenty of time left, so now I just need to find another suspect.

[Irgy]

I guess the next logical thing is to try and rip Irgy's approach to me being a wolf apart?

Feel free

Hypothesis 1: The wolves will have spread there votes out evenly across targets
Response: I see no reason for this, from what we know about WW2, the wolves voted independently of each other. I guess logic says with so many on MJW there is a good chance of one being a wolf, but you could just as well takent he suspicous Cull run votes to select your wolf list from. So I will consider this arbitary

For what it's worth, this is because of my general policy of prefering to punish bad votes. I talked about it last game, and sometimes I forget that I haven't mentioned things that I do in this game. It's funny really because I was a wolf last game so you might not listen to anything I said there anyway, but as I say I was playing villager on everything but the Roland vote.

Basically, MJW is known to be a villager, while Cull, Pocketbeetle, Lewwyn and so on could still be wolves, so a vote on MJW is worse. That's why I pick his list. I realise I argued for voting for MJW myself and now I'm punishing people who did

Hypothesis 2: A wolf would hide in the middle group
Response: I can see some logic in this, but bear in mind the way you chose the 3 groups was fairly arbitary, 1 more post from Selrahc for example would place him in that group with me too. But I guess this part his minor weight

The ends of the range I selected were a little arbitrary, but from memory you were near the middle of it anyway Post counts are a silly thing, that I don't want to over-use anyway, but the point is you've posted just enough to stay off the too-quiet-radar, and just little enough to avoid any attention. Nothing wrong with that, it's good play for someone on either team really, it's just that it's my estimate of what the wolves would most likely mostly be doing.

Hypothesis 3: Of Serdoa or Jkaen it makes sense to vote Jkaen.
Response: The reason you give for this is you know more about his personality.... care to enlighten us what this means, and how it makes him less wolf like than me? again fairly arbitary.

I mean I've ded-lurked Serdoa in FFHPBEM2, read his signature story, remember him from WW2 and can actually remember a post or two that he wrote this game. You I don't know from a bar of soap. So, later in the game, I'll have an idea if Serdoa is acting unusually, whereas you I won't know the difference. It's a small thing, but that's what it is.

So in resolution, I am willing to concede there is a reasonable chance that somebody in the list Meiz, Sareln, fire&ice, uberfish, Serdoa, Mardoc, Jkaen,
Bruindane, Sandover. is a Wolf

Sorry, what's this list based on?


I did you the service of looking up your posts and actually re-reading them. What I can gather is this:
Lots of roleplay, a shortage of significant content. Seems like a nice guy, and fairly switched on. Fits the profile of an innocent new player quite well. At the same time has a perfect wolf cover - no-one interested in voting for him as he's done nothing to draw attention. Either a good, though not game breaking wolf, or a valuable villager with a level head. A little like me in WW2 really All in all the most suspicious thing is the conspicuous silence, no one defending or bandwagoning. That might be a function of my methods for picking him though, they're not really wrong but they don't really prove anything, so what is there to say?

I'm not really selling my case here particularly I'm sure, but there it is. If I find someone better to hassle I'll move on.

[Lewwyn]

It might be understandable that Roland discards Mardocs post, but doing that by simply stating "it is full of holes"? That does not coincide with his normal style. I would rather assume that Mardoc was not that far from the truth and that at least 2 people out of his list are indeed wolves and that Roland is another one, trying to save them. Therefore Roland

Well, while I believe Roland is suspicious, I do not believe that this is really proof of it. Mardoc's post WAS flimsy, circumstantial and barely even worth responding too. (Sry Mardoc, wild theories won't fly). As such I don't think Roland needed to expound much more, or discredit it more. So I don't believe thats a reason to suspect him. I will however say Roland is on my list, and a vote for him is always good on principle. :neenernee

That said I agree with Meiz. Mardoc's post is just too obviously a villager trying too hard. So I will alsoo take my vote of Mardoc. I will instead move to another person on my list, Pocketbeetle, due to his lack of posts before the lynch and his growth of posts after. I also wanted to vote for him during the first lynch but as I have said earlier my choices ended up between Cull and MJW. Rowain has proposed a plan and also voted for pocketbeetle. As he is on my suspected innocent list, I"ll follow his lead on this one.

[Jkaen]

Sorry, what's this list based on?

That was your middle group (including narrator!)

[Jkaen]

As the fingers started pointing towards the tailor [strike]MNG[/strike] for being suspiciously quiet all this time, Jkaen heard the Vinter declare that he had a cunning theory, that he would be happy to explain if people would just help tie down Pocketbeetle so he couldn't run away as it was told.

Interested to hear more theories, the herbalist helped secure the stablehand before turning back to Rowain with a questioning look

[zakalwe]

Ok... where to start today. Actually I think I'll start here:

Attempting to lynch the narrator won't do much for you this game. Just sayin'.

A rare occasion where that smiley is actually appropriate. I see the discussion is starting to get a bit heated today, as is to be expected. So before I jump into it I'd just like to give a nod to the narrator and say that this is shaping up to be a really fun game. I think we made the absolute right choice to ban out-of-thread communication, and the role-play really helps to ease up the mood. Our chances for winning may be looking a little bleak at the moment, but I'm definitely enjoying myself.

Roland, I'm warming up to you today. Your "house of cards" analogy seems quite accurate for Mardoc's theories, although I tend to agree with Irgy (if I understand him correctly) and have a slightly different take on it. If it *is* a house of cards then it's essentially a more viable theory. But if you can remove or replace one suspect and easily adapt the theory to fit, then it indicates that the theory may be too vague.

I have some experience in this, having launched a "grand wolf theory" on day 2 of WW1. Throughout the game, I kept adapting the theory to fit the facts and roles that were revealed, and I never had much trouble making things fit. It's hard to give up on a baby like that, and as I have mentioned, you subconsciously want to be right. As a disclaimer I'll have to add that my own subconscious is likely to be working hard to discredit Mardoc's theory; since I failed so miserably at constructing a day 2 grand wolf theory, my ego would take a crushing blow if Mardoc actually pulled it off.

So anyway, I guess the question to ask is whether or not this theory seems like a plausible defense strategy for a wolf. I'm not sure; on the one hand, he easily wins the "most specific post of the year" award, while it would be "sufficient" to just point at another suspect or two. On the other hand, it could be a good way to cast a wide net, accusing 5 other players and seeing what sticks, without seeming to do just that. Also, if Mardoc is a wolf, I'd expect some of those 5 to be wolves as well, in preparation for the eventuality that he does end up getting lynched. So for the moment, I'm inclined to keep shaking this tree and see what else falls out.

Sincere apologies for a string of posts - I would edit this in to the previous post, but I'd like to avoid breaking rules... I'd just like to make one request to the wolves. If Bruindane is a villager... Please kill him last ok? His pictures are great (I literally lol'd at the last one), and if he's a villager, I'd like him to continue them for the remainder of the game. If he's a wolf, please let us know so we can lynch him?

This from one of the guys who is calling out Selrahc for trying to distance himself from the wolves? Also, I point out that Irgy made a slip, but leave it be after he posts a very credible explanation (for future reference, "it simply slipped out" is the natural explanation for a slip; I think a wolf would go for something more creative) --- and look who jumps at the opportunity to start a new thread of suspicion. Makes me wonder.

That said, what I do find slightly suspicious about Irgy is his methodology for catching wolves today. He portrays himself as a logical thinker, and then pulls out an arbitrary excerpt from the post count list and says that's where the wolves are likely to be found. Easiest way to "cook" the evidence, ever.

I don't think I figured out Fire & Ice was the Seer in WW1 until he was killed. :P

Like I said, you're now alright in my book.

I do have some more suspects lined up, but I'm happy to watch how the current discussion plays out for a while before "derailing" it further. Sorry if this gives off a Twinkletoes vibe (Baner, do NOT protect me ), but it seems there is no shortage of suspects currently.

Looking back before hitting submit, that's a lot of smileys for one post. I am in a good mood - I just sold my house yesterday. If my good mood should turn out to be infectious, I see no harm in that.

[zakalwe]

Cross-posted with 6-7 other posts...

[Lewwyn]

Cross-posted with 6-7 other posts...

Yeah tell me about it, been happening all day. And not just during my day either. This game has a healthy blend of people from all timezones, so this is a round the clock post fest.

I would please caution people to realize this. I've already had to explain myself 3 times in this thread. I don't simply stop posting because I have nothing to say, I stop posting because I'm doing things like sleeping lol. I usually post the most during the evenings when I have more free time(like now). Tonight though, I have to go be a judge for my students debate tournaments. Basically I'll do tonight what I do in class, just without being paid for it. Just can't turn down those puppy dog eyes when they ask me if I'll help them out. In any case I have these types of things happen all the time so I "disappear." Other times I have full afternoons and evenings free so I'm all bored and posting on here all day. I think the only reason everyone gets all suspicious when I'm not posting is because when I am posting, I'm posting a lot. Anyway keep that in mind people. I'm consistent throughout even if my posting times are at different periods of frequency, blame the flexible but oddly timed blocks of activities.

This is just so everyone knows and will stop calling me out when I suddenly "stopping posting" and "get quiet".