Erebus Wrote:Well I'm home, posting a bit before heading to bed.
I've tried defending myself, and everytime I do I apparently dig myself into a deeper hole, so I'll move on.
I don't find this very convincing. If you dig yourself a deeper hole, try harder. I've done a poor job defending myself as well, didn't mean I stopped trying.
Quote:My issues with Catwalk are two fold, 1) He seems to trying to live in Zakalwe's shadow. Here's something fun, go through each of Catwalk's post and if you have a newer browser and hit ctrl+F type in Zakalwe in the find field and hit highlight all. 8 of the 10 posts I checked on Catwalk had him mentioning Zakalwe at least 3 times, that's only counting BY NAME. You all talk about Zakalwe's ego and tunnel vision, shouldn't you be more concerned about someone sitting by himself and helping to convince him he's always right?
Being that zakalwe was the only one who agreed with me about uberfish at first, that's hardly surprising. I think you're making up statistics to bolster your argument. As for whether or not zakalwe is innocent, I don't know. He doesn't seem wolf to me, I can't say for certain he's innocent. I agreed with Serdoa earlier that lynching a quiet villager does less harm than lynching a talkative and analytical villager (as Gaspar said, sometimes even bad theories are useful). And wolves tend to be less analytical than villagers IMO. For that reason, MNG seems innocent to me. He's missing the target by voting me, but he's putting in a lot of effort to both analyze and present his findings in a userfriendly manner.
Quote:2) The post where I noticed his defensive nature was Post 428. Towards the end of the post he seemed to be overly apologetic towards Roland, only maintaining his belief that Uberfish was a legit lynch and Zakalwe is innocent, pretty much his only two tangible arguments he's made.
So first I'm suspicious because I stick with my guns and now I'm suspicious because I change my mind when presented with a good defense? uberfish had no defense, he almost wanted to hang.
Quote:
Another issue I'm having, is that the votes on me look a hell of a lot like the bandwagon that formed on Uberfish at the end of the day one.
This sounds wolfish to me, you're basically saying "some people voted for uberfish and they were wrong, now they're voting me so they have to be wrong again! don't wanna die plz"
Quote:Someone mentioned that if I hang and am a villager they'd suspect Zakalwe (an unvillager like sentiment to say the least). However, I'd like to request if I'm proven villager take a hard look at Scooter.
I agree with this much, scooter is definitely a suspect.
a) My energy was wasted trying to protect myself, it was better off spent looking at other people. I'm sure most of the people who read what I posted yesterday would agree.
b) Zakalwe wasn't the only one, only the most vocal.
c) I'm not making up statistics as I told people exactly HOW to find the information I claimed, it's actually quiet fun, and I'll show you.
Starting day 2:
Post 386 - 5 times
Post 387 - 3 times
Post 397 - 0 times
Post 404 - 6 times
Post 428 - 3 times
Post 429 - 2 times
Post 503 - 5 times
Post 511 - 8 times (though most were quotes of me).
I'm not making this shit up. It's not my fault that you are in love with Zakalwe.
I've seen more then one vote on someone for "snuggling" up to Zakalwe.
It's dangerous how closely you've tied yourself to him. Whether or not your a wolf. Because if either of you are, the village will assume both of you are.
You've been leaning on him and throwing his name around as if it'll give your arguments some weight.
Don't claim I'm making stuff up just because you might not see it.
After having slept I am at least a little bit less frustrated. I tried to ask myself why we see such an - imo - akward game right now. Basically Ichabod pointed to it, you suspect someone but often shortly after there comes a post from that person and you start to question yourself. You go and reread the postings of that player and ... feel he could very well be innocent. Somebody commented on my innocent list to be fluid and thats exactly the reason for it. Also I do play a little different since last game as I realized that keeping an innocent list is much easier then trying to find wolves. Mostly everyone will talk sometimes in a suspicious way, you can't help that. Be it because you are frustrated (like I yesterday) or that you are hungry, tired or whatever and rush your post. But posting in a way that feels villagerish is much harder.
Having said that, lets get back to my initial question: Why do we see such an akward game? I think it is because most of our wolves are inactive. It is normal that we go for people who are talking, leaving the quiet ones alone. EVERY WW-game since we started them here has shown that you can get as wolf to Day 3 or 4 without talking all that much. Yes, some players will suspect you. But normally there are always villagers who state that people should not be voted off just because they do not have time. It is the fear of hurting someones feelings I guess. And then you always hear "We can come back later for them". Well, if our wolves all have not much time, it gets harder from day to day to come back to them.
Now, whom do we have as inactive:
TT
Jkaen
scooter
Others don't have that much posts (Ichabod) but the content speaks for itself. Injera has lately also made the jump to my "rather innocent"-list. Oh, before I go on, I should explain that list I guess. What I do is keeping an Excel-table with the names of all players. The dead ones are listed seperately in the top rows with their alignment. The living ones are listed below and I have in every column several cells in green with villager and orange with wolf which I drag to the respective player according to my feelings. Making that with several columns gives me the possibility to move the roles around because I am not always sure on someone. Obviously for some people I always have the same alignment in every column. Thats when someone gets in my "innocent-camp". It's when I can't think of any reason for him to be anything else then a villager. Maybe thats not helpful for you guys but I thought explaining what I do might help understand me better.
Ok, back to the game. I suspect (and I am not the only one) that we find some wolves within those 3 players. And that is probably also why we don't get anything going, why we have votes going back and forth without having one clear direction. Because everyone posting somehow does sound in line with how we expect him to post. Some we don't know that well (Erebus, Injera, catwalk) though. Injera I can't comment on tbh, I don't know nothing about him. catwalk I feel sounds like the catwalk from last game. Erebus on the other hand I can agree that he sounds like he is panicking. Could he be a panicking wolf? Yes I think he could as from last game I got a different impression for him. I didn't think he would panick as easily and also I feel his comment about "if you lynch me because of my mistake, so be it" to be off. Why would you not write something along the lines of "I made nearly a mistake there, don't do the same by lynching me!"? I don't know how to explain that, but that whole sentence sits wrong with me. It is simply not what I expect a villager and not what I expect Erebus after last game to play like.
And what do you know, in the meantime of me typing this (for nearly 2 hours now what nobody will believe when he sees that small text...) he starts to defend himself differently, by instead trying to go for the next best target and the only one realistically by now having enough votes. At least that is more believeable.
I wanted to vote Erebus now, but after those last posts I instead go with the train of thought I had above and vote:
scooter for now
Hopefully some people join in so that he will get some heat.
I just can't get past the thought of the bandwagon on Uberfish yesterday, and just how bad an idea it was. Not to mention the fact those involved seem completely unapologetic about it. Without a seer we have to rely on other power roles to determine who the wolves are. This includes wolf roles too.
All lynch votes should be close. The top two suspects need to be on the block together, side by side. We need to force the wolves to use their double-vote. Sure we'll probably still get a mislynch, but it wouldn't be as bad as the one we had yesterday. Really everyone who jumped on that bandwagon after about the 6th vote should be ashamed of themselves.
A mislynch today leads to an 8 vs 5 vote tomorrow. Another mislynch leads to 6 vs 5 vote on day 4. Is that really where we want to be on Day 4?
Watch the tallies, keep an update list of peoples suspects and don't allow anymore landslides. Especially if Serdoa is right and we have a horde of inactive wolves that can just come in and sit there votes right next to yours.
We might want to spoiler all our vote messages with an updated tally to keep from stupid landslides from happening again.
I just updated a tally and I think it's fine like this. A 5 - 4 vote is ideal, as it'll force a double vote on Catwalk to save me if I'm actually a wolf. Not to say I don't wish it was someone else on the block.
There is one caveat to what I said above. You need to be REALLY sure about your suspects, because having two innocents on the block means a double vote could get two innocents killed. (one lynched by the double vote, and the second the next night on the person saved by the double vote).
Well this'll be a close game regardless. I'm suspicious of Catwalk, but not completely certain, I think Scooter is a safer bet. Hopefully my insomnia allows me to wake up in time to catch the vote before the lynching tomorrow.
I've been following the thread from my phone in between other things so I'm reasonably caught up. I don't have a lot of time to post right now, but I want to get some thoughts out before the deadline is looming too close.
After his initial wolfish post, MNG has regained some of my trust during the day. With Erebus, it's rather the opposite. I still find him very suspicious. If I cannot get sufficient support for lynching him, or if he conjures up a more credible defense, I could see myself voting for Scooter. I don't have an issue with his activity as such, but I get the feeling he is watching closely, due to the timing of some of his posts. When he posts, he also seems caught up. If he were busy, he might struggle more to keep up with the thread, which is moving pretty fast at times, with some big, hard-to-digest posts. Maybe all he really needs to stay caught up with is an email thread.
In the past, I have sometimes told players that the best defense may be to mount an offense on someone else. Particularly when someone seems disengaged or uninterested in chasing wolves, as was the case with Kuro in the previous game. But personally, I want to see more "passive" defense from Erebus at this point, not more accusations. I am already satisfied that he has or appears to have independent thoughts about who the wolves may be. But I don't think he has provided a satisfactory explanation for his own behavior today. (There's nothing specific from day 1 that I want him to explain.)
I think his behavior today is consistent with a wolf trying to frame Sareln, getting called out for trying to do exactly that, panicking, trying some strange gambit with a fake semi-claim, and finally trying to gloss over his previous mistakes by going on the offensive. I don't think his behavior is consistent for a villager, so I want Erebus to explain how it is.
Specifically, what was your motivation for fake-editing that line of text? Did you want to deliberately send a message that you knew something important, and therefore leave the "I'll lay all my cards on the table" part of the sentence? Or did you genuinely believe the deadline was looming close and changed your mind at the last minute about potentially compromising a villager power role? And if so, why did you not remove the entire sentence, since you had realized you had another 24 hours? I don't think you have adequately explained this at all, and I got the impression you were wavering between (at least) two incompatible versions of events. To condense it: why would you be in such a rush about posting anything, once you realized you had another 24 hours?
Keeping my vote on you, Erebus. I will be back on-line later tonight. If you're a villager, I hope to see some convincing explanations to my above questions by then.
Funny thought came to my mind seeing that two of my biggest suspects (scooter and TT) painted suspicion against me. I'm like a poor man's Zakalwe . I feel I'm good at projecting my innocence and I'm trying to come up with original observations, but the execution part of this might be lacking. I don't feel my accusations are taken in the same seriousness than for example Zakalwe's or Ichabod's (and I understand that). And it seems like I can't explain my thoughts as well as I'd like, after seeing Ichabod's and Roland's messages of "something" being odd with my play . But my point is, I'm much easier person to attack than for example Zakalwe is. When I read scooter's and TT's accusations against me, I don't think they hold much merit. But I can understand why a wolf would select me as their target. The accusations I'm referring to:
scooter Wrote:Moving on. Meiz - I'm curious... Why do you blast me for raising my eyebrows at Erebus and the vig comments, but not Serdoa who basically just said the same thing as me? Is it because I'm an easy target with some suspicion and Serdoa is a difficult target since me mostly believe him to be innocent? Your comments that I'm not playing as well as I could - well see my above explanation. You blasted me for my Uberfish post and claimed I lifted it all from someone else... which is 1) ridiculous and 2) highly ironic since your line of argument against me has already been used by other people, so you aren't exactly breaking any new ground yourself there. In fact, you seem to stick to easy targets, which is a pretty typical wolf thing to do. Just sayin.
Twinkletoes89 Wrote:Meiz was the other who seemed to have problems with Lewwyn and maybe he was getting to close to the bone with him (and Sareln) and so they silenced him before he could get traction? I would also say that I have the impression that his posting so far has been more 'parroting' than original though, normally quoting someone else and agreeing with them or developing their ideas'. Would be a pretty good way of covering his behind.
Not saying that suspecting me is stupid and you're a wolf if you do that. I have no problems regarding Roland's and Ichabod's doubts against me. But I do think that scooter and TT found excuses to attack me, instead of honestly finding something odd and then voicing their doubts.
My "problem" with Erebus is that he has a natural ability too look like a bad wolf . I suspected him for the most time of WW5 and was quite convinced that he was an amateur wolf. And surprise, he was a villager there. I feel like he is repeating the same in this game. One of his early messages popped out to me, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....stcount=96
Honestly, would a wolf say: "The only way to get anything useful out of this ploy would be to see Uberfish's actual role. I believe he is a villager, but confirmation puts the information sifted into an easier analyzed form."
Injera said it well, half of his post say villager and other half says wolf. But it was the exact same in WW5.
. I feel I'm good at projecting my innocence and I'm trying to come up with original observations, but the execution part of this might be lacking. I don't feel my accusations are taken in the same seriousness than for example Zakalwe's or Ichabod's (and I understand that). And it seems like I can't explain my thoughts as well as I'd like, after seeing Ichabod's and Roland's messages of "something" being odd with my play