I get an impression he thought the vig kill comment to be the biggest argument against him. He wanted to underline that there is a clue where he draw the conclusion, but didn't want to spell it out to avoid revealing vig. It's clumsy but so was his play in last game.
I'm going to make another attempt at data analysis, promise it's better than last game! I've looked through all lynch tallies from day 1, to see who else was at risk throughout the day and when the switches occurred. I've also noted down all posts with votes for uberfish, to recognize timing and arguments used. I decided to leave out the first 3 tallies as nothing much was happening and I didn't want too much data overload.
Catwalk post 145 (long, look it up if you want to reread)
zakalwe post 217
Quote:I've been thinking while making and eating dinner. My hunch on Uberfish being a wolf is growing stronger. That quote of his that I included in my previous post, where he constructed an apparent contradiction, was a huge scumtell for me personally, and really set my alarm bells ringing. It was exactly the kind of comment that I correctly called him on in WW5.
Sure, a villager Uberfish could possibly try this gambit, though it seems very strange. But looking beyond that, he isn't really acting as a villager. Knowing how intelligent he is, his reasoning has generally been poor.
In his gambit post, the part about not wanting to play wolf again rang true to me. So how would he react to being a wolf for the third time in four games? Not by ragequitting, perhaps, but by trying a gambit, for fun? Possibly. We know he is devious and can pull off gambits, as he proved in WW5.
As Ichabod pointed out, when Uberfish "revealed" his gambit, he listed three kinds of suspicious behavior he'd be looking for, which together cover all possible behaviors. He then listed four suspects, without giving any reasons at all. When pressed for specific reasons, he said everybody should think for themselves. When it comes to articulating the reasons for suspecting people, he has done a poor job.
My suspicion towards Uberfish is also compatible with TT being a wolf, since Uberfish did not include him on his suspect list. That is curious, since he later emphasized how TT and I reacted similarly. So why was I on his list of suspects, but not TT? For that matter, why was anyone on his suspect list? We have only been invited to speculate, so we can fill in our own reasons.
I'd be very interested to hear what others think of this. (Seeing Injera's post in the preview, I'm guessing he won't like it.) Am I the only one besides Catwalk who is thinking along these lines? Anyway, I want to follow my intuition here so I'll go ahead and vote Uberfish. As noted, TT is my current fallback.
scooter post 230
Quote:3. I'm voting for uberfish. The case against him is not airtight by any means, but it's day1, so this seems as good a chance as any.
Basically, despite what conclusions you draw from his "gambit" - his move makes a lot of sense as a werewolf actually. Consider this scenario:
Uberfish realizes he's a wolf yet again. The wolf email thread gets going, and he tells the other wolves that he's going to mix things up a bit, and explains his post he's going to drop in the thread. He tells the other wolves to more or less lay low. They can't all stay silent, but if they make comments on uberfish's post, make sure they are generic ones. The results of such a gambit would be a variety of reactions - some would believe him, some maybe not, some would possibly get mad at a quit, etc. Then, he could reveal the "gambit" and cast suspicion on a bunch of villagers that reacted in more noticeable ways. It's easy to come up with generic criteria that matches a few villagers. He came up with 3, and they were basically the 3 possible ways to react to it 1) believe it and push to lynch him = eager wolf, 2) don't believe it = wolf with knowledge, 3) wait and see = wolf afraid to commit. I mean, that's basically the only real ways you CAN react to it right??
So really, it's a shockingly convenient opening play for a wolf. I do think the case could be made that uberfish may just be a normal wolf without powers, as it's less of a risk - however a wolf is a wolf at this point.
Also, it really fits with the uberfish wolf style. I've played as a wolf with uberfish twice, and I've seen him play wolf at least one other time, and he's always happy to try something crazy. I'm pretty sure I remember once our wolf team had to talk him out of role-claiming seer or something crazy like that because he was a little too eager to do so and it wasn't necessary yet. So really, why not try a gambit like this? He's basically tried everything else. If it works, he could be wildly successful, dumping a bunch of suspicion onto innocent villagers (possibly a power-role or two if he's lucky), and getting others to mostly trust him. If it fails, meh, who cares, was worth a shot and it was fun.
FWIW, I still don't believe for a second the theory that he's a wolf who was serious in that post and the wolves talked him out of it. If Gaspar did that, I might believe it (), but not uberfish.
So that's about all that makes sense to me.
Meiz post 232
Quote:The attack on Zakalwe from uberfish's part sounds so far fetched for me to see him as villager. I'd say desperate if it was anyone else than uber
I can see the line regarding me as an attempt to play the soft tender emotional side of me . Sorry, not buying it, uberfish
The way you left TT out of your suspects (as Zak noted) makes me think that TT is guilty as well.
Jkaen post 234
Quote:Still find TT suspicious, but my worry now especially with no seer is we will have this uberfish trick hanging over us for ever. If he is a villager the wolves would be crazy to eat him, and we have no other way of clearing his name.
If we end up lynching him it doesn't really tell us much. I believe TT would react like that even if he (TT) was a villager and zak has the excuse of the strange play to all back on so we can't conclude anything.
If uberfish is a wolf, it helps zaks case slightly, but there is so much time for him to flip vote again it doesn't make him at all safe to me.
Typing this out I have become less convinced of TT's guilt. It was far too headstrong and OTT, but playing in 2 games with him I don't think its that out of character.
I think annoyingly we have no choice but to clear this uberfish cloud hanging over us and allow more discussions to develop that we can draw better conclusions from. Uber, sorry if you are innocent, if you had stated it was all a joke I may have hoped we could move on, but I fear you are now too easy a place to hide
MNG post 247
Quote:uberfish=\bad at werewolf. When uberfish=villager, uberfish=\bad villager.
Injera, you summed up the other three posts I was going to quote in one simple statement.
Quick summary before I take my daughter to the park:
uberfish>TT>Rowain in my suspicion list.
Sareln post 252
Quote:I'm glad to have heard from Twinkletoes, and am happy to switch off him at this point. I'm not sure enough of anyone to push a new name, so I guess I'll vote Uberfish to do a 2 vote swing from TT to Uber. That way it starts to build some protection against late swings.
TT post 253
Quote:Right now, with the lack of a Seer and noone else presenting enough of a case to be a WW in my eyes, I think that leaving the uberfish question hanging would leave a cloud over our discussions for future lynches.
Though I am not 100% sure on his guilt, we need to be able to focus fully on future lynches so I vote uberfish for the gallows.
Serdoa post 268
Quote:Thanks. And as I should make my vote count (and I doubt we'll have another target anyway as long as uberfish doesn't come up with a great post)
uberfish
Not 100% sold on him tbh but he probably knowed that he paints a target on his back with his gambit. And the only other suspect I have is Rowain who won't gain traction anyway.
I won't present my own take on it yet, wanted to put out the information first and let people form their own opinions. Please let me know if I made any mistakes.
Or well, noone seems to be active today. We don't have much time left, and we haven't gotten very far.
The tallies lead me to suspect Twinkletoes. When the bandwagon took off, only him and zakalwe were under any real suspicion. There was pretty heavy suspicion against TT on most of day 1, and it seemed to evaporate in favour of a "let's save that for later" attitude which was then never followed up on. Jkaen's and Sareln's switches from TT to uberfish in particular stand out to me.
If Erebus was a villager, I think there'd be more votes on both me and him by now. Right now many other suspects are at risk, if we're both innocent it'd be a standard play to blend in and toss more suspicion on both of us. I find it highly likely that one of us is a wolf, and I'm quite certain I'm not one. I'm keeping my vote on Erebus, will also vote TT if there's support for that.
Quite contrary, I'd say the silence makes me think there are either 2 villagers or 2 wolves up. Since I suspect both parties, I'm inclined to the latter, but I could be persuaded on the former if someone really believes that. At the moment though I think one of Catwalk & Erebuss is on just about everyones list.
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
I suppose that's also an option, but is it a likely one? There've been many suspects over the day, I don't think the wolf team would let two wolves rise slowly during the day with this many to choose from and this little activity. Why do you consider two wolves to be more likely than one wolf and one villager? As for two villagers, I think we'd both have more votes if that was the case.
Well, I am active but looking at the last tally and seeing that 3 people still haven't voted even that we are 5,5 hours from days end is somehow hitting my motivation pretty hard.
Anyway, for your point
Quote:If Erebus was a villager, I think there'd be more votes on both me and him by now. Right now many other suspects are at risk, if we're both innocent it'd be a standard play to blend in and toss more suspicion on both of us
Do I understand it right that you think there should be more votes on you and him if you both are innocent because that would make it safer for the wolves? If so, look at the tallies:
- 3 people are not voting at all (Ichabod, TT, Jkaen)
2 of them have pretty much checked out of this game already imo and if they are wolves (what I suspect as explained before) it makes sense not to come here and vote before it gets even later, making sure they can influence the vote like they want. And if asked, well, they didn't have time earlier, had to make a decision in a split-second and oh well, what a shame it hit a villager.
- 3 are neither voting for you nor Erebus (Erebus, Meiz, myself)
2 of them (Meiz and I) are regarded innocent by most. For myself I can tell you that I think you both are innocent. I mean, think about it. You both are suspected by some. And you both push to lynch the other. What is the most probably thing happening if we lynch one of you and he is a villager? Yeah, exactly, people who suspected the other one will see that as another reason to push for his lynch. Great for the wolves, bad for us. Basically, if one of you is a wolf, I would expect a push on someone else or just the passive defense which zak asked for.
Oh, and having written that, I realize that that is exactly what Erebus did. You were his best bet to get off the hook. But he moved the vote away from you, making it much more possible that he get lynched. I have to admit I didn't realize that, because I was happy that my scooter-vote gets traction and wanted to ask now that zak and you vote for scooter too. But thinking about all that, what do you do as a villager on the block in such a situation as we have it? The most villagerish thing to do is stay on the other most probable lynch-target, because you know that you are innocent so lynching you would be a loss for certain. And being on the block yourself, you have to look for self-preservation. And not state
Quote:I'm suspicious of Catwalk, but not completely certain, I think Scooter is a safer bet.
I can't believe I didn't realize that this makes no sense as villager. You are suspicious about someone. That one is together with you on the block and the race is 5 vs 4 in votes. And instead of trying to save an innocent (yourself) you move your vote away to make it a 5 vs 3 vs 3? With 3 votes still to cast? Feeling lucky much?
Serdoa Wrote:I can't believe I didn't realize that this makes no sense as villager. You are suspicious about someone. That one is together with you on the block and the race is 5 vs 4 in votes. And instead of trying to save an innocent (yourself) you move your vote away to make it a 5 vs 3 vs 3? With 3 votes still to cast? Feeling lucky much?
You're right, that is odd. Erebus does look quite good up there, but I'd really like us to replace Catwalk with scooter.
Move on to Erebus Meiz. That makes it 7 on him. I'd hope that Ichabod or Roland will switch to Erebus as well as what I fear most right now is that we have a 7vs7 at the end and the double-voter is used.
I'll be on around lynch time to change votes if necessary. Don't know if I suspect scooter more than Erebus, though. What are your arguments for scooter, in a condensed version?
