Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[uberfish]

Well, I think you're basically saying the same thing. If I'd spammed the thread a dozen more times you wouldn't have looked at me.

Complete nonsense.

Because my posts were pretty content full.

No they weren't, they were meta posts that didn't contribute to finding wolves. Saying that "multiple bandwagons are good" then not being interested in actually discussing the innocence or guilt on the alternative bandwagons. You could make 20 more meta posts and you'd still be suspicious.

I don't think wolves and seers should be acting the same at all.

Bob apparently does, and was killed because of it. Ironically, he'd probably be one of my suspects if he hadn't been night killed, since his behaviour - which was the same as yours - fit entirely with "wolf hiding under the radar."

[uberfish]

One thing that is bothering me, though, in terms of strategy, is how often (presumed) villagers are willing to point out strategies that help the wolves that they might not have noticed. I put together a post with some statistical analysis a little earlier and ended up choosing not to post it out of fear of providing advice to the wolves. At what point does being a little too clever in a post become a liability to the village?

If you're trapping in the hope that someone will incriminate themselves, it might be a good idea not to reveal your entire case early. Otherwise, it's safe to assume wolves are capable of coming up with any wolf strategy villagers could come up with

[Jkaen]

Hmm, just re-read Rowains post asking for support on PB, and by first reading I thought it infered he would reveal his grand plan should people vote onto Pb before the lynch.

Now reading, it seems I may have misinterpreted that and he is asking us to lynch PB with no explanation why what so ever. I am a bit less comfortable about that.

[Bruindane]

The village square was again busy when Zakofonix arrived. The atmosphere was tense but (apart from an "inspired" herbalist running around in circles over by the stables) people were being somewhat civil, in mutual recognition that nobody could be trusted. Zakofonix had been reflecting on this as he walked, and on how everybody was bound to look suspicious in one way or another. Sensing that people might be in a receptive mood, he now sat on the edge of the well, preparing to speak up. A few people paused to watch him; encouragingly, nobody was covering their ears just yet. Zakofonix proceeded to raise his voice and recite a few lines.

The vintner likes to wine and dine
but he may be fermenting your mind
The elf is always a bit too emphatic
to really be called diplomatic

The farmer has no need for a scarecrow
but still he prefers to lie low
The tailor suits his own needs
too bad the snoop is out of leads

The farmhand may seem a little too keen
if you know what I mean
The stablehand as a matter of course
ought to be hung like a horse

In anticipation, Zakofonix waited for the villagers' response.

[Bruindane]

Hmm, just re-read Rowains post asking for support on PB, and by first reading I thought it infered he would reveal his grand plan should people vote onto Pb before the lynch.

Now reading, it seems I may have misinterpreted that and he is asking us to lynch PB with no explanation why what so ever. I am a bit less comfortable about that.

[strike]Mr Nice Guy[/strike]
Pocketbeetle

[uberfish]

Interesting move towards Novice, I thought he was suspicious on the first day too. However Novice's late switch to Cull is consistent with his belief that MJW was innocent, so it would be wise not to read too much into that. I think it's better to look for wolves amongst the group of MJW voters. It's a good place for wolves to hide and they thinned it out by killing Bob, making it more likely that anyone remaining in that group is a wolf (Monty Hall type logic.)

[Meiz]

For me personally, day 1 was all about hunting wolves based on low amount of posts with low content. Definitely easy, as there were several candinates that fit this description. At the end of the day, my possible wolf list included Cull, Mr. Nice Guy, Jkaen and pocketbeetle. It was only after I read the whole thread again, that Mardoc's name was added to the list as well. I did not expect that all of them are wolves, but I thought it highly likely that at least couple might be.

The method above does not work that well on day two, as stated by previous posters as well. It would be really stupid for a wolf to stay as one of the lowest posters, after the numerous hunts on day 1. Therefore my day 2 thought was to just focus on low content posters. So for today, I planned to drop Mr. Nice Guy, pocketbeetle, Cull and Gold Ergo Sum from my vote list. I'm not saying that I believe them to be innocent. I just think it's a good idea to look for fresh targets. I could always return for them later.

Out of the list of 5, that left only Mardoc. This was actually the most confident vote of my whole WW history (that being early death of WW2 and this game ). He then posted his grand theory, which I almost ignored completely, but I think it deserves more attention from me. After all, his theory actually helped me to lessen my suspicion against him.

Quite frankly, I think that the theory and his conviction for it is ridiculous (and I'm trying to say this softly) . My immediate thought was, that there is no way a wolf would post a message like that . I'm still trying to figure out how those quotes relate to any of his accusations. Best part for me is the quotes that made him suspect the band of 5 originally. First there's mine and Lewwyn's reactions after Bob was killed, and then he quotes novice's comment "worst baner ever". The conclusion:

At the point, I was surprised, and a tad concerned - does it really make sense for the people targetting me to therefore be wolves? Of course not! And yet, here they are, sounding smug about killing the Seer and trying to pull the Baner out into the open to finish the job.

Oh man, I don't know how to defend myself... .

The best post of this thread so far deserves some more spam:

I literally crack everytime I see it Thanks for that.

So my own conclusion was that Mardoc is an inexperienced villager. But I have not ruled out the possibility that he might just be an inexperienced wolf.

---

So who should I vote for today? Well, I already explained the method I was going to use for day 2. I'll admit that I had missed this one suspect entirely, but uberfishes and Ichabold's messages pointed me to the right direction. I have gone through Sehlracs posts once again, and those are convinced me that he is a possible wolf target, worthy of my vote, Sehlrac.

[Lewwyn]

My theory can survive Cull being innocent, since he's been a recipient of aid but not much a giver of it. It can maybe survive Pocketbeetle being innocent. If any of the other three are innocent, then my whole theory comes crashing down.

I would be prepared for it to come crashing down because I'm definately innocent.

If we can't muster enough votes but one of my other suspects is high on the list, I'll vote them instead.

[STRIKE]Pocketbeetle[/STRIKE]
novice

Wait... Why? We've just started adding votes to pocketbeetle. I'm voting for him, Rowains voting for him, Jkaens voting for him, Bruindanes voting for him. You switching off as the pressure has begun to build is mighty suspicious. Almost like you voted for a wolf fellow and when you saw the pressure coming switched to someone with less votes. What happened in the thread and what you are saying/doing does not add up!

[novice]

Busy day for me today, I'm stuck back at page 49 or something. We still have 24 hours until nightfall, right?

[Lewwyn]

Busy day for me today, I'm stuck back at page 49 or something. We still have 24 hours until nightfall, right?

Yep just over that. I had a packed day too. Just spent four hours judging debates...