[SPOILERS] Chevalier Mal Fet and Marcopolothefraud lead a Soviet Down Under

[marcopolothefraud]

The world is officially at war.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

The world is officially at war.

Interesting! This could be very good news or very bad news for us - if one side conquers the other outright then we need to bury the hatchet with suboptimal really quick and go for a knockout before they get their new conquests online, but if the war turns stalemated or mutually destructive then we're golden. 

It's interesting that ljubljana was the one to declare war, not the Archduke, despite his military deficit. Best guess is that he saw Archduke's warchest, he knew that frigate upgrades were incoming (we know he didn't have Cartography yet on his turn, and we can predict about 10 upgrades based on his gold levels), and decided to go for a first strike. Ljubljana is out of gold, so this is probably as close as the strengths were going to get before Press Gangs could start to equalize the difference (he didn't have Exploration when I checked last turn, I don't think). 

So, how would I fight this war? 

If I'm Kaiser, I don't. I have no modern units, no gold, and no niter. My own military is pathetically small and I've invested all my hammers in new theater square cities on the southern continent, so I'm sitting this one out. This, uh, is a strange choice, I think, since it means Japan is giving up its +5 coastal bonus AND the +10 crusade bonus they grabbed. In fact, Kaiser has spent very little faith on missionaries at all thus far, and for all that he's Japan he's made next to no investment in holy sites - his faith income is a paltry +20 per turn, less than 10% of Russia's even though the districts cost the same for both of us. Anyway, Japan is a military non-factor, so it's England vs. Norway and Phoenicia. 

Now, Woden is technologically backwards, but I could still contribute, if I were him. I have lots and lots of cheap longships and SURELY I've been spamming those out since they're basically free (~20 hammers). If Russia can manage 24 galleys even after getting ~10 of them blasted to ruin by jongs, then I can muster 30+, right? Well, no, because we can see his milscore. But anyway, what longships I have can make a difference. Obviously I don't fight England head-on with his 10+ frigates (I think on the order of 13 or so, actually) and 10 caravels, that would be stupid unless he's coming straight for my cities. Instead, use what longships are meant for: raiding. I can scatter them like pearls all around the English and Japanese islands - I would have spent the last 15 turns doing so since obviously we knew this war was coming. Then, on my turn, I'll start swooping in and burning and pillaging whatever I can. There's tons of improvements, harbors, Japan's lovely campus, etc, all available. Japan has a tiny navy and Archduke wants to concentrate everything on the front. If he diverts ships to hunt me down, he'll manage to get some longships - but those ships aren't attacking Phoenicia. And if the longship manages even a single pillage before it gets sunk, then it's more than paid for itself. If Archduke ignores me, then his entire coast is getting burnt out and the builders he sends to repair it will be kidnapped. That's what I'd do, as Norway. Naturally I expect Woden to zerg his longships straight into the English fleet, like last time. 

If I'm ljubljana, I go for the heaviest first strike I can muster into the English fleet. Attrition favors me, not Archduke - he'll never get a fleet as strong as this as easily as this again. I have the advantage of maneuverability (Cartography) and initiative, and no caravels - yet. So I try to blast as many frigates as I can in the first strike, and throw biremes at galleys before they can upgrade. If I get a clear path, then there's something to be said for suboptimal's death ride - I try and burn as many English cities as I can and draw him after me, because, like I said, a long war favors me. If I can survive England's opening rounds, I'll quickly be able to gain the upper hand. Tactically Ljubljana has the toughest challenge of anyone here. 

If I'm Archduke, obviously I need to ignore Ljubljana's bait as much as I can. I fight the fleet, yes, but my priority is making sure that at the end of the day most of Phoenicia is wrecked and in no state to build ships to stop me. Hypothetically, if we both lost our fleets but our cores survived, I will lose that war. If we both lose our cores, but our fleets survive, well, we both probably lose the game but I think Japan can beat Norway straight up. So, in general, fight, but prioritize going for Ljub's cities over defending my own. Use this initial wave ot blast through as much as I can, and then, uh, work out what to do about Russia later. 

I'll think about how we should respond over today and take my turn after work.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Turn 126

My screenshots got all jumbled on upload, so I'll try to disentangle them - I normally report in order of my screenshots, which are taken in order of how I play the turn. So this might be a bit more confused than usual. Also, note that in about a month the quality of my reports will drop dramatically as I move to Korea and my reporting time falls off 90% from my current single status. 

Anyway:




How underwhelming. Dams do nothing for me, apart from I guess General-Admiral Graf Apraksin, which is one of only like 4 Russian cities even to sit on a river, and is the only one on a floodplain. Buttress is nothing more than a stepping stone to Printing (due in 6) and Mass Production beyond. Printing will be nice, since coupled with my alliance with Marco (due on turn 128), I shall get a +8 combat strength bonus over equivalent Indochinese units (unless, duh, they have their own military alliance and printing - but here their weak science screws them). Once Magellan arrives, well, now my caravels are fighting at +13 versus THEIR caravels, so hitting 40-80 damage per hit and taking only 13-21 in return. Oh, and they'll be faster, due to the Great Lighthouse. Oh, and there'll be more of them.

Guess who spent all his faith on SOMETHING OTHER THAN A JONG last turn? 

Does...does sub even know taht the war is still happening? Or did his attention wander after he got all his ships sunk? 

Anyway, basically in the next 10 turns I'm going to net a +13 strength boost, I'm going to assemble 12 galleys, 4 frigates, and 4 caravels right off Sub's coast, and then their navies either fight (and lose, probably) or I take Shikishima and sail for his homeland (while spewing out another wave of frigates and caravels and beginning to faith-purchase an army out of Shikishima for the invasion of Sakhalin). 

The next step will be a spy, for a further +3, cementing the Printing advantage since I imagine sub will have negated that by then. I might also inadvertently capture an Indonesian trading post at some point, but eh, whaddayagonnado. 

Start the turn in the south:




The barb galley redlined my caravel, but this is the last fight and then he can promote and heal up in the city. So we smash it:






Caravel is left at 14 health, but the man at arms is ready to begin the assault on the camp itself next turn and Magellan is immediately transferred to Ushakov, where the fleet is about a five turns' sail north. 

Next, Second Fleet begins Operation Jumbuck, the reconquest of Australia's capital:






3 frigates attack for ~67 wall damage and 15 city hp, while two chariots join with Australian land forces to besiege the city. Sub has a sword in place, which could combine with the wall attack to take out one of the besiegers, but would leave the city wide-open to reprisal. By my projections, Russian units could retake the capital on turn 128, or we could let the Aussie man at arms recapture on turn 129, gambling that it would trigger Marco's bonus but allowing sub a move on the interturn. Up to you if you want to take that chance, Marco - at worst if we failed somehow we'd just capture the city on my turn 129 anyway. 

I'd keep your man fortified where he is, as long as he can reach the capital - he's on defensive terrain and would resist jong fire better there, in case sub tries to shoot at him for whatever reason. 

The single surviving jong follows the script laid out for him:




At 6 spaces per turn, it's going to take him almost literal centuries to get home. On your way, sir! 

Checking in on First Galley Squadron:




Russian intelligence assets report more movements of niter within Chinese borders, and our spies now estimate that there are 3 Chinese frigates on the table. That warrants a degree of caution, and GalRon1 groups up in this little bay here. They are joined by the lead elements of First Frigate Squadron and Third Galley Squadron:




Next turn, I will have concentrated my 12 frigates, 1 caravel, and 2 frigates and can risk battle again, but I don't know if I should probe north again towards the enemy coast, northeast and try to catch more quads in transit, or even contemplate a lunge to the west and try to ravage the Chinese coast. I think I'll be passive, actually, gathering my strength here until all the modern ships are up. Once I have 4 frigates and some caravels, I'll be willing to make the assault on Shikishima - the walls and jong inside will be able to sink a frigate, but the walls should go down in only 2 turns, and the city itself not much longer. Meanwhile, the spare caravels and galleys can keep the Chinese frigate squadron from interfering. So, the city should go down with the loss of only 2 frigates or so, and I have the jongs, surviving frigates, and caravels to drive back the Chinese. Yes, that should be doable. 

Meanwhile, the Fourth and Second Galley Squadrons are assembled in deep water outside of Have a Good Time:




Recon spots an enemy galley patrolling near the harbor. If we attack while it's present, sub would be able to consistently fire on my galley on the harbor and then occupy it with the galley, preventing pillage. We'll hold position here and see if sub wanders off - worst case we can be patient until the frigates get here to join the attack in ~15 turns, the harbor's not going anywhere. While we cool our heels, a few galleys continue mapping and surveying expeditions in the area. We find the rest of Krasia and a young Japanese colony of Oasis of Dawn - I suppose this is the Krasian desert, then. That must be Anoch Sun in the fog up there. 

Let's see...Svalbard sees my warrior continue patient barb-suppression operations:




I can't spare the gold to upgrade him, so as long as I don't encounter serious trouble a warrior he shall remain. My gold will go to Caravel upgrades at Shikishima or HC->Knight upgrades on the island itself. 

Abroad, Woden accepted my alliance (more on the Raider - Central Powers war later), so I take the chance to defog his capital:




(W)Odin is a great trade route destination with our alliance and his campus:




60 gpt and 3 science, nearly doubling Russia's income! We'll get new traders routed this way asap. I have 1 more lighthouse completing next turn, and 3 more available for builds as soon as the ships are out. I will fill out my routes to Woden as rapidly as I can, then send the spares to Kaiser - Milne gets +16 gpt and +1 faith from my eastern bays. 

Overview of the east/Fuji Bay:




Central Russia:




And the west/Svalbard:




Overview of the Australian front:




Good times. Now to analyze the opening moves of the great war on the far side of the world!

[marcopolothefraud]

I think we should give Sub the interturn and try to get my Man-at-Arms to reconquer Demak Sultana.

How do you plan to ambush and destroy the lone Indonesian Jong? Your great writer can't keep up, so you'll soon lose visibility of the Jong and need to rely on the "flight path".

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Got it. We'll give sub the interturn. If he attacks out with his swordsman, then I should be able to kill it and then he's really got nothing he more he can do.

As for the jong, we're not going to ambush it - it'll eventually stagger around to the area of China, but that's a round-the-world voyage and will take him 10 turns or so, by that point I'll have a full on fleet in the area.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Okay, so, neither player seemed to suffer a dramatic drop in milpower this turn. All that happened was that Writing On the Wall changed hands for I believe the 4th time. So, ljubljana declared war on the first turn he could and seized that city-state. It must be somewhere north of the Irish Sea since it's between Phoenicia and England but sure isn't Geneva. Possibly off England's north coast? Anyway, I can't imagine the city-state is worth all this bloodshed, but one or the other power knew war was coming and they kind of accepted it. 

Archduke upgraded 1 frigate and I think 8 caravels on his turn, and his income fell by 50% to 111 gpt - I'll be getting that much once my trade routes come online the next two turns, so that's good news, and my military is of a rough parity. On the whole, then, I think we're in good shape, as we lead in total cities, districts, and pop, we lead in research, are 2nd in culture (China has built a 50% culture edge and is growing - but culture won't win you the game...), and are fast approaching 2nd in GPT (right now we trail England, Phoenicia, and China, but I expect that to change). To say nothing of faith. 

Oh, right, the war. Anyway, I still think ljubljana's best chance is to go for a slugging match with England and draw as many ships into action as he can, while Archduke needs to get past the fleet and hit Ljubljana's core before Cothons start to rectify the imbalance of forces. Norway should avoid direct combat and go for pillages and naval raids. Otherwise with milscore hardly budging it looks like everyone's still feeling each other out around the city-state.

[marcopolothefraud]

:/

good to know I can contribute to the war, with my fleet of...2 quadriremes and 3 galleys.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Once we kick the Indonesians out, the best thing to do is to devote your production to settlers via Colonization. You won't be able to contribute to the next phase of the war, but what I want to do is give you some upgrade gold once you hit Cartography, and have your caravels come with my frigates. We want to hit Brussels with those to liberate it and trigger x2 production. Once the cities and districts are back up in ~30 turns, we rebuild the Australian military in full.

If you can find places to squeeze out the production, maybe via a Harbor at the Blueprint, then starting to build out a modern Australian fleet capable of hitting a Japanese city would be excellent - I'd project it going for Krasia or Milne while Russia stretches the defenses thin.

Also, don't act like you haven't contributed thus far! Australian galleys slowed down the jongs just the same as Russian ones did, more so even, and without their contribution we wouldn't have been able to stop the jongs where we did. Sure, you got wiped out doing it, but it's still a win - Australia will bounce back while the other teams pound on each other.

[marcopolothefraud]

Absolutely. I checked last time, and the Blueprint can hypothetically make 11 turn Settlers. (And of course, we should multiply all numbers by 2/3 because I don't have the Colonization card yet). College Dropout would unfortunately create ~20 turn settlers, but MBDTF will have very high production once its Holy Site is back online, and make Settlers even faster than the Blueprint.




I think I'll refound Rodeo, Low-End Theory, and MMLP. I don't think Aquemini will ever be worth it, especially since MBDTF is growing taller by the day.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Hm, the Aquemini HS would be worth +14 hammers/turn. We can negate the cost of building it since all the hammers would be organic to the city, so from a civilization-wide perspective they're 'free.' So we would just need to look at MBDTF's commitment of hammers to see how long it would take to repay -those.-

Australia has built 8 settlers, so the next one should cost 320, 240 with colonization. To repay 240 hammers with a 14 hammer HS would take 240/14 = 18 turns. The HS itself would cost 209 hammers (assuming no discount), which would be another 15 turns. So, on the whole, Aquemini would repay its own settlement costs approximately 18 turns after you finish the Holy Site, and it'd repay the cost of its own site 15 turns after that. Hopefully MBDTF would acquire that forest in the meantime, so you wouldn't even need to invest gold - just work the forest, as before, until we get the holy site into Magnus range, which is 115 - so invest 95 hammers, which admittedly would take a while. Probably 15ish turns working the lumber mill and growing onto the plains hill to the south (I don't think you could transfer the cattle pasture), so the whole timeline for a profitable Aquemini comes out to ~40 turns after settlement. We'd need to make sure Japan or England or someone didn't come by to burn it down again in the meantime, which would send all that up in smoke...(literally)...

After it's doen, though, you'd have an excellent, Russian-level shipyard, and with MBDTF and MMLP be able to quickly build a strong navy in this area.