[SPOILERS] swance bitten, twice shy

[aetryn]

ok, i have to go and don't have time to fully reply now but thank you so much! you and williams have gone a long way towards cooling me off over these last few turns

i also have some good news, if you like schadenfreude:



it might not have been a 50/50, but SOMEone had a very near miss on hinduism...

buddhism fell this turn as well. if we had gone for it instead of pottery as i was contemplating, we actually would have had it by one turn. but, you know, still not the best percentage play so i'm not too upset about missing out

Mjmd also spawned the universe's earliest great prophet this turn (!!)

Interesting. The question is whether MJMD got one of the first two religions. If he didn't, he's likely to pursue Monotheism so he can use the prophet for a shrine. If not, it may linger for a while longer.

[ljubljana]

Turn 58 - Zululand

re Mjmd - we know they did not get buddhism, as we don't have a KTB for it. but yeah, poly is an open question

demo stalking:



ginger has appeared with what looks to be a whip and production of a 4k unit..... constantinople lost 2 pop this turn, which is not 3 pop, which makes me concerned that they've whipped a 35-hammer unit this time instead of a settler.... gosh, what an unforced error it was to antagonize them well, too late to delay the settler in kirishima at this point i think. i guess we just have to hope our extra chariots and such are enough to hold this position until copper.... at least they haven't whipped in 3-pop ankyra yet which is rather what i'd expect if they were really planning to try to blitz down kirishima

or, it looks like a chop was used at the capital so maybe it is a double-whipped settler. but if so they still got a fourth real unit SOMEhow.....



double worker next turn, whipped settler in kirishima the turn after plus 2 chops coming in to hoshoryu's granary, which i will likely whip as well. Expansion Mode

planning to go for writing tech next in anticipation of a possible whipped library at kirishima in the not too distant future, but if there are other tech paths i should be considering please let me knowww

going to have to decide on a next build for keisho next turn though. we might have enough workers for now (heretical i know) - i'd really like a settler to go straight for the gold, but we would probably need to divert multiple chariots/future impi to escort it and we might not have enough. we can afford to divert a couple turns into some other build without really slowing down the gold settler tooooo much as with current timings it will still come out before the workers finish roading down there. or we can allocate our next settler to the southern copper site instead, which is much weaker and now lacks copper hookup as a justification but is at least less exposed and will help us extend our reach towards the gold in such a way as to make sure we don't expand down there before it can be defended



our scout is kinda stuck here, and i'd love to hear opinions about her fate... we want to chop the marked forest in mitakeumi starting next turn, and i do not really relish the idea of doing so without a sentry to the east while our neighbor is hostile and has chariots around. but the longer we do that, the longer she's not,uh, scouting, or more specifically racing east to contact ginger's neighbor on that side. do we think the downside risk of ginger chariots implausibly coming through those southern hills for some harassment/possible worker or city sniping is worth delaying this scout from doing her job? or another thing i guess we could do is transfer our scout from the GT border east since it seems pretty chill at the moment and we are much closer to scouting GT's neighbor than ginger's

just realized civ4 logs and displays my play time, so i can't hide my secret shame  sleepy and increasingly nervous about the precarity of the gamestate, as is the ljubljana idiom i guess. at least we're not GT of still 3 cities and no economic edge to catch them up from a slow expansion phase

[aetryn]

Ginger has 4 cities, the unit might have been a natural build out of one of the others.

I think at this point sentry duty is more important than neighbors, at least until we can signal peaceful intentions and see it echoed. When does Kirishima expand borders? I THINK we might get a trade connection with Ginger at that point, so might be able to defuse tension a bit at that point.

[ljubljana]

5 turns until Kirishima expands borders, i believe. yeah, i guess the question is whether river tiles that are half within your borders count for purposes of trade routes? and also whether they have hooked up ankyra to their internal trade network yet, although you'd certainly think so. but even if we don't, at that point we will have writing and can just offer open borders; i don't reeeeally want to do that as it sounds like it doesn't help our trade routes but would help ginger's, but maybe it's worth it to cool down the diplo situation...

edit: reviewing tarkeel's trade route primer i don't actually see any mention of open borders impacting TR value.... if that's the case i guess we have no reason to deny OB and would actually want it for ease of scouting

[aetryn]

5 turns until Kirishima expands borders, i believe. yeah, i guess the question is whether river tiles that are half within your borders count for purposes of trade routes? and also whether they have hooked up ankyra to their internal trade network yet, although you'd certainly think so. but even if we don't, at that point we will have writing and can just offer open borders; i don't reeeeally want to do that as it sounds like it doesn't help our trade routes but would help ginger's, but maybe it's worth it to cool down the diplo situation...

edit: reviewing tarkeel's trade route primer i don't actually see any mention of open borders impacting TR value.... if that's the case i guess we have no reason to deny OB and would actually want it for ease of scouting

It doesn't impact the value, but it does impact whether they are allowed in the city at all. I'm not saying you shouldn't do OB with Ginger - it might well be a good idea if we want to walk back the earlier aggression. But it will give him better trade routes.

I'd assume at this point they'll have hooked up Ankyra, or will in 5 turns.

Also, although rivers are technically between tiles, the tiles on the sides of the river count for trade purposes, so you don't need the entire river in borders, just a consecutive series of river tiles. I believe the tiles NE and then E of Kirishima will be connected to us via the river once they are in borders, and the tile Ankyra and west of it are connected to Ankyra for trade purposes, so if Ankyra is connected to his capital we should have a trade connection regardless of what's on the far side of the river. Assuming pre-Sailing you can trace a river trade route across borders, which I'm not entirely sure on.  (Side note: there's also some wacky interactions when you have tiles that are adjacent to multiple rivers, so sometimes you have trade a lot farther than you would expect)

[ljubljana]

Turn 59 - Zululand



caption



they have writing, and contact with Mjmd and greenline, of all people. so highly likely they are in the southwest - surely if they were GT's far neighbor they would have met by now. so this scout, who wandered off in the desert after meeting Mjmd precisely in case someone contacted us here and spared us from having to go both north and south, can now head northwest and feel reasonably confident that someone uncontacted is there, if the apparent map pattern holds up



can we talk about how, not only are our neighbors green and green, but one of them is light green text/dark green line and the other is the inverse of that?



working on it. next turn we start the grand southern road through them thar hills. i feel that, if we do gold city with this Takakeisho settler, impi + chariot is prooobably sufficient escort - how does that sound to you all? it at least beats any one wandering unit, and i doubt more would appear randomly in what is as far as we know an unscouted area. it is reachy to skip the southern copper site of course but the speed in which we a) get the gold tile worked and b) expand borders at the gold city has proven seriously crucial to the speed of our financial recovery in testing. i am willing to take some reasonable risks to shave a settler's worth of time off of that, i think



next turn is the micro-optimal time to whip this granary, yes? so next turn we will have 6/22 in the food box after the whip. then the granary will complete and we will have 10/12. then starting the next turn the granary will start doubling the food income, and there is exactly enough time to double 12 food which is half of the size 2 foodbox. is that right? or does the doubling start one turn earlier, on the turn the granary completes?



well, whatever happens, it's looking late to stop the copper hookup. turn 62 if we wait for the mine, 61 if we panic-settle on the copper itself. even if 4 chariots appear at kirishima next turn, a) we have 4 of our own units on defense and b) we should at least still have time to whip an impi at, like, mitakeumi lol

btw, what are the mechanics for units upgrading in queue? i would like to put some hammers into a warrior at kirishima next turn, turn 60, so that on turn 61 i could, if necessary, settle on the copper, have the impi upgrade in queue, and whip it that turn. is that going to work or would i need to wait a turn? (actually you don't really have to answer i'll go sim it)

[ljubljana]

btw, what are the mechanics for units upgrading in queue? i would like to put some hammers into a warrior at kirishima next turn, turn 60, so that on turn 61 i could, if necessary, settle on the copper, have the impi upgrade in queue, and whip it that turn. is that going to work or would i need to wait a turn? (actually you don't really have to answer i'll go sim it)

looks like it upgrades at the end of the turn we hook up the copper so i don't thiiiink this works. unless maybe we whip the warrior on the turn we hook it up...?

edit: whipping the warrior apparently DOES work, so i might sacrifice a hammer on kirishima's chariot (which is almost at the decay point...) to start a warrior t61 and enable this play

we are also going to need an escort for the southern workers soon as they start roading through the wilderness.... but of course i am really hesitant to reassign one from kirishima at this point

just to ask for a fifth time, double-moving into war is definitely illegal under the ruleset yes? ginger's been online for 30 whole minutes and i'm nervous lol (as though i don't take a literal hour for all of my turns)

[aetryn]

btw, what are the mechanics for units upgrading in queue? i would like to put some hammers into a warrior at kirishima next turn, turn 60, so that on turn 61 i could, if necessary, settle on the copper, have the impi upgrade in queue, and whip it that turn. is that going to work or would i need to wait a turn? (actually you don't really have to answer i'll go sim it)

looks like it upgrades at the end of the turn we hook up the copper so i don't thiiiink this works. unless maybe we whip the warrior on the turn we hook it up...?

edit: whipping the warrior apparently DOES work, so i might sacrifice a hammer on kirishima's chariot (which is almost at the decay point...) to start a warrior t61 and enable this play

we are also going to need an escort for the southern workers soon as they start roading through the wilderness.... but of course i am really hesitant to reassign one from kirishima at this point

just to ask for a fifth time, double-moving into war is definitely illegal under the ruleset yes? ginger's been online for 30 whole minutes and i'm nervous lol (as though i don't take a literal hour for all of my turns)

Yes, moving last this turn and declaring war and taking first half next turn is definitely not okay.

Looks good on copper. Once that's hooked up we and we have a few Impi out we should be pretty secure for a bit. While Ginger and GT have land to settle, they won't want to take on a foe prepared to defend. Next danger era will be when catapults come out - we do NOT want to be significantly behind there.

I agree with going for the gold site next if we need it, and yes, two units should be fine for now. It doesn't look to be highly contested given the size of the desert, and it's very unlikely anyone has a bunch of metal units wandering around out there to attack with.

[ljubljana]

re cats i don't thiiiink we'll be that behind. only superdeath has writing from what we can see, and my plan is literally to go straight to currency now (maybe with a fishing diversion). sims suggest early t90s for the academy if we go that route, something around t100 for currency. idk if that timing's good or not, but after that construction should be pretty fast, and worst-case of course we could pause expansion

[ljubljana]

turn 60 zululand

found a new mans we can intimidate



not sure if it's more effective to flash this chariot now and potentially deny scouting of the NW region (and more importantly hoshoryu's location), or wait until there's a settler and delay the settler. probably the former for "not pissing off every neighbor" reasons lol



ginger whipped again, but still not in ankyra apparently? guess they're saving pop for a settler like we were which is a good sign i guess. from the perspective of us not dying, if not that of us getting outexpanded into oblivion lol. but GT is showing a just delightful 7k spike - third barracks plus axe? axe plus whipped SECOND axe? i think our scout might end up here stuck here semi-permanently to make sure nothing's coming, esp given that the western scout should be clear to contact GT's far neighbor if there is one



copper city next turn, so looks like we're surviving long enough to get it hooked up. kirishima does noooot wanna finish that chariot but.... it loses a hammer next turn if i don't work on it, AND that costs us a turn on when it completes, so i guess it's ok. thinking about rerouting the southern chariot to escort workers to the south, but we have to see if any more gingery units appear natch