Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Hmm. I was pretty active in IMs and PMs in day 1 and 2. A couple things that stuck out in my mind... first, Cyneheard was careful to warn about information security, keeping the sharing to a minimal number of people. Ironic how this has gone down once the information security broke down.

The other thing is that when I was chatting with Roland, he was quick and aggressive to try and ask my opinions, but wouldn't tell me who the seer was, nor who the seer saw - even though he claimed to know both. At first I wrote it off as trying to protect his information as Cyneheard had claimed. After today's debacle I don't think that's a very appropriate write-off.

So today we're being given another one-or-the-other choice, just like we were given in day 1 and day 2. There is one major difference between day 1 and 3 that is influencing my vote. Can anyone spot the difference? It's significant enough to make me not want to vote for Selrahc. And yet I don't want to vote for Roland. Like MJW, I class him as a severely misguided villager, and one who causes more harm than good on balance.

But I'd rather target a wolf. And I still have misgivings against Gaspar. So there we go. If I'm in the minority again like yesterday, I just hope that the majority is right this time. Actually, no matter which side I wind up on, I hope the majority is right.

[sunrise089]

Might as well put this out there since my role got revealed without my permission:

Yeah, I'm the seer. I've made two seer thing targets in this game. On day 1 my seer request was received by fire&ice after 4:00pm and he denied the request. One day 2 I scanned uberfish, wanting someone to trust to discuss things as the obvious person to trust, the baner, did not fill me with confidence. Uberfish scanned as a wolf.

Yesterday I was approached by the owl, roland, etc, as they reported. I've not seen any lies in their recent posts, though roland originally claimed to the the seer in order to protect me (I'm not sure why since the supposed devil scanned me, but whatever...). Much of what the owl bloc said made great sense, and I said I'd go along with their vote for selrahc. However I did not trust the bloc itself without evidence and did not confirm my seer role to them nor tell them the results of my own successful scan. This was in part because they were casting such a wide net, which is useful when they have great info like a guaranteed wolf, but also does things like get the masons killed.

So here's my puzzle: why is uberfish trying to get selrahc lynched? I'm guessing he's just trying to save his own skin after seeing so many votes for selrahc already. But there you go...that's all I've got.

[sunrise089]

Simple proposal:

Lynch Selrahc. If he's the devil lynch uberfish. If selrahc isn't then the owl bloc is lying, and lynch roland and friends. If by crazy series of coincidences I'm the fool and there really is an owl then you still get selrahc.

[Lewwyn]

Wow that absolutely sucks that F&I denied the request.


EDIT: Oh and I agree with said proposal. That works out great only 3 WW's left to find if all info is true

I also believe there is no Fool role. I think having a fool with 6 WWs would have been too much for the balance of the game.

[Serdoa]

Lynch Votes:
1 = Gaspar: Haphazard1
12 = Selrahc: Roland, uberfish, MJW, Kyan, Sareln, Gaspar, Lewwyn, sunrise089, Irgy, Ug the Barbarian, Dantski, scooter
1 = Roland: Selrahc

No Votes:

Serdoa
MrNiceGuy
Rowain

Summary of Changes:
-

Sequence of Events:
[noparse]
1) Haphazard1: Voted for Gaspar
2) Ug the Barbarian: Voted for uberfish
3) Roland: Voted for Selrahc
4) uberfish: Voted for Selrahc
5) MJW: Voted for Selrahc
6) Kyan: Voted for Selrahc
7) Sareln: Voted for Selrahc
8) Gaspar: Voted for Selrahc
9) Selrahc: Voted for Roland
10) Lewwyn: Voted for Selrahc
11) Sunrise089: Voted for Selrahc
12) Ug the Barbarian: Switched to Selrahc
13) Irgy: Voted for Selrahc
14) Dantski: Voted for Selrahc
15) Scooter: Voted for Selrahc
[/noparse]

[uberfish]

Well I guess Sunrise is actually the fool then because I'm not a wolf.

[Lewwyn]

Hmm. I was pretty active in IMs and PMs in day 1 and 2. A couple things that stuck out in my mind... first, Cyneheard was careful to warn about information security, keeping the sharing to a minimal number of people. Ironic how this has gone down once the information security broke down.

Hah, Its the only way I think. AT this point we're playing a shell game the rest of the way. And actually in the short term if everything pans out we'll be able to lynch 3 WWs in 4 days. That is pretty spiffy. Meanwhile the Owl and Seer can continue to post their scries without having to worry about not being believed. Provided of course that the next couple lynches prove true. In which case its up to the baner to protect the info gatherers as long as possible. Once the Owl and seer are dead we will begin looking for WWs the hard way. Post anaylization and such. All this means is that I can stop spending 8+ hours a day on this game until the Seer and Owl are killed.

[Serdoa]

Lynch Votes:
2 = Gaspar: Haphazard1, MrNiceGuy
12 = Selrahc: Roland, uberfish, MJW, Kyan, Sareln, Gaspar, Lewwyn, sunrise089, Irgy, Ug the Barbarian, Dantski, scooter
1 = Roland: Selrahc

No Votes:

Serdoa
Rowain

Summary of Changes:
-

Sequence of Events:
[noparse]
1) Haphazard1: Voted for Gaspar
2) Ug the Barbarian: Voted for uberfish
3) Roland: Voted for Selrahc
4) uberfish: Voted for Selrahc
5) MJW: Voted for Selrahc
6) Kyan: Voted for Selrahc
7) Sareln: Voted for Selrahc
8) Gaspar: Voted for Selrahc
9) Selrahc: Voted for Roland
10) Lewwyn: Voted for Selrahc
11) Sunrise089: Voted for Selrahc
12) Ug the Barbarian: Switched to Selrahc
13) Irgy: Voted for Selrahc
14) Dantski: Voted for Selrahc
15) Scooter: Voted for Selrahc
16) MrNiceGuy: Voted for Gaspar
[/noparse]

[Roland]

This was so much easier, and better, when all I had to go was gather information and analyze it. Things went downhill the moment I took my eyes off my real suspects and started following a group mentality.

Mr. Nice Guy:
I'll have to check the logs, but I don't ever remember telling you I knew who the Seer was. I don't think I denied knowing who the Seer was, but I don't recall claiming knowledge of him the last time we talked. Aside from that, you'll recall it was you who were equally aggressive in asking my thoughts on my own suspects - as well as your suspects, and I spoke my mind pretty freely and honestly with you.

Sunrise089:
I wanted to talk to you last night. I TRIED to talk to you before this all went to hell. You either were too busy or were purposefully ignoring me. Either way, I couldn't vet anything by you, and no one else was online. So, I was stuck - alone. I talked with Lewwyn for about an hour or so, after he came on, and we decided the best thing to do at that point would be to just come clean about it. I don't claim it was the smartest move, but what would have been worse - continuing a failed charade? As I've said (and now proven), I'm a terrible liar. I'm just not cut out for it. So here we are. You can be angry if you like - I won't hold it against you - but there's nothing more to be done about it now.

Lewwyn:
Thanks for helping me out last night. I tried to tell everyone to wait until we had talked to you about this first, but of course no one listens to me, so I went along with it and tried my best to play my part. I failed miserably, and you helped me through it. I still feel you and I made the right moral choice - coming clean - even if it turns out it was the wrong game choice.

Everyone Else:
Blame me if you like. I signed up for being a martyr, although I sure as hell didn't expect all this. Nothing I say or do from this point on matters anymore. If I could do it all over again, I'd do many things differently - starting with Meiz - but there's no changing the past. At this point, I'm so far out of my "comfort zone" I don't know what to do. I'd almost feel better if everyone just lynched me - at least then I'd have the peace of death. And if I'm wrong, or even if I'm right, if that's what the Village decides I'll go quietly. I have nothing left to gain or lose anymore. My one hope is that I didn't completely ruin everything - in the game or out.

I don't feel I can add anything worthwhile to the discussion. I'm sorry - I wish I could. I just don't. So blame me, hate me, lynch me. I'll accept it all, and quietly. I just don't have anything left to give at this point.

[haphazard1]

OK, finally got caught up on the thread again. And now, everything stinks like two-week-old fish!

All these claims of Seers, mouthpieces, Owls, alliances, whatever -- I don't believe most of it.

Here is a counter-theory:

Roland is a villager, who thinks he is being the front man for the Seer/Masons/Owl (if there is such a role). But actually he is being influenced by the wolves and used as their tool. They saw his Wall of Text wipe out their comrade Sandover on Day 1, and realized if they they could aim him at villagers his reputation from Day 1 would provide them a lot of cover.

So Roland led the charge on Day 2 to lynch Meiz, who turned out to be innocent. Now they have him aimed at Selrahc, knowing that when Selrahc also is revealed as an innocent that Day 4 will see Roland lynched as well. This plan has already been stated openly -- kill Selrahc and if he is innocent then kill Roland -- by Dantski, Irgy, Rowain, and Sunrise. (Note that I am not accusing those four of all being wolves, although I suspect some are. The logic is obvious enough, but serves the wolves' plans.)

Three days in a row of villagers killing their own, plus the wolves killing at night (unless they get unlucky against the Baner). That would put us on Day 5 with 8 villagers and 5 wolves, with the wolves firmly in control of the game.

Who is the wolf influencing Roland? It is the guy who convinced him on Day 1 to switch his vote away from Sandover after writing such a strong case against him, who was saved by Roland pushing hard against Meiz on Day 2. Who also happens to be my top suspect for fur-n-fangs, as I have noted for the past two days: Gaspar.

Is the above theory true? We won't have any proof until the end of day, when it sure looks like Selrahc will be lynched. But to my eyes it is at least as plausible as all these claims and counter-claims about power roles, alliances from Day 1, etc.

I don't see much chance to convince people to lynch someone other than Selrahc today. But if he does turn out to be a villager, I hope people will keep in mind that following with a lynch of Roland is what the wolves would like to see happen.