[SPOLERS] yuris125, Pitboss 71. The battle Warrior of Light is unlikely to win

[yuris125]

Thanks! I thought it was interesting that it was the same event (Cover to melee units), which triggered on the turn I completed the archer. Given that games with events are underexplored, and I went for unusually early Archery this game, maybe it's worth checking if the event is tied to that. If it's a coincidence, it's a remarkable one

[yuris125]

News from this turn - Thoth adopted slavery. Commodore is the only other player running slavery, and he revolted ages ago - I saw a score decrease from him as early as T19. Look forward to reading about his opening after the game, it seems unusual

Someone founded Hinduism Taoism, judging by score increases Commodore was the only one to research a tech last turn, so has to be him

[yuris125]

Problem




This right there is Thoth's freshly founded city. It is in my direction (only 6 tiles from my capital), and with Thoth being creative, it will put pressure on my 2nd city. Moreover, as I posted before, this is the best direction for me to expand in

Looking at the power graph, Thoth currently does not have a unit capable of defeating an archer




Thoth's only big power jump so far is BW research. Archery is a 6k power points tech, Thoth definitely doesn't have it. I don't see any evidence of units stronger than warriors on this graph

So... do I try to kill this city? I honestly see no reason not to. With Thoth being cre/pro, I'd say I'm heavily incentivised to kill it before it becomes a problem. I have the unit in the area. And with the other neighbour being behind so many hills that he can be considered a natural ally (inasmuch as Superdeath can be an ally), I don't think spoiling relations with Thoth is a big deal. If this land is the best expansion direction for both of us, a confrontation was unavoidable in any case

So... how about ruining another Thoth's game, with an even earlier archer attack than in 68?

[yuris125]

I think next turn I will peek at Thoth's city with the workboat, and if as I suspect it's defended by a warrior (if at all), I will have to go for it. I truly have nowhere to go if I don't contest this land, after the planned 2nd city I have room for maybe 2 filler quality cities down south, and that's it




There's some potential on the northern coast with the bananas, and maybe in NE there's a food source in the area with ivory and even more gold, but none of those are immediate prospects. Especially with bananas being jungled. I could go IW sooner rather than later, it's an 11 turns research, which is not too bad for this stage of the game, but probably should at least pick up Writing and get a library up first




I won't feel good doing it, but Thoth has my graphs, he has to know I have Archery, and while it is a bit unlucky for him that my archer is in the area, he knows where my copper is - he has to expect my 2nd city to go in this direction. So me having a unit there can't be unexpected. And he knows where my capital is and how close to it his city is. Feels like he knew it was a risk, and if I'm right in my graph reading, it's not going to work out

My biggest reservation against razing this city is that I'm not immediately gaining anything, while ruining any potential for collaboration with Thoth. He likely will have time to come back and resettle this city with better defences if he wants. But because of his traits and his lack of military at present, I feel I have to inflict this setback on him now if I can

I promised thought dumps in this thread, well there you go

[Tarkeel]

I promised thought dumps in this thread, well there you go

It can be lonely dumping your thoughts into the void, but we are receiving and appreciating it

[yuris125]

And I appreciate you lurking and reading these dumps!

Thoth's city is indeed defended by a warrior. However, it is on a hill, making an attack worse than a coinflip




Don't think I should take it, when the archer is my entire military. But depending on where my horses are, I may want to build a couple chariots after the settler

On the other hand, I might have to let it be. I don't like this city, wish I knew earlier that this was a chokepoint, but with my early focus being on taking full advantage of a double gold start, I wasn't going to be able to compete for this spot. Could just be a "can't win them all" situation. Although this city will always be a point of tension between us

[yuris125]

Considering Stonehenge in the 2nd city to defend against Thoth's cultural pressure (plus looks like free border pops will be very important on this map). Will see if it's still available on T50, when I get 3rd ring in the capital and can claim the stone

[Jabah]

I understand you need culture to get the copper and wheat and Stonehenge obviously has plenty of other benefits , but are those 2 plain tiles (shared by your and Thoth's city) really worth fighting for ?

[yuris125]

Tiles themselves? No, absolutely not. I think territory is worth contesting, so that Thoth can't reach my city from his territory with his 2-movers. Thoth and I are almost certainly set to fight over this city, so I think tactical freedom will be important

The real question is whether it's worth investing worker turns into improving and connecting desert stone, which I can't even work. That is truly questionable, and from some simming I did this morning while waiting for Thoth to play, the answer is no

What I could do is go for Judaism, make my 2nd city holy, and contest the territory this way

That said, my workboat moved further west and saw the borders of Thoth's capital, and his city is only 4 tiles from it. Can't even accuse him of being overly aggressive / overextending with this plant. Also, insert complaints about how much greener Thoth's land is

Horses




Looks like the 3rd city will need to go further south, possibly S of the wheat - this way I don't have to pop borders in the 2nd city to connect copper

Workboat is now moving back and will explore north along the coast, see if there are expansion prospects there

Also, Thoth's international relations have been rocky (remember I was considering declaring on him as well)

[yuris125]

Ok, emotional reaction "this opponent made a play I don't like, how do I show them my displeasure in the most annoying way" is out of the way. Let's talk strategy

Lay of the land is pretty clear by now. South is my only viable expansion direction; there are vague prospects in the north, on the other side of the desert, but no prime locations as of yet. East is completely unusable




In the south, the second city's location is set in stone. Ideally the 3rd one goes S of the copper, and the 4th S of the horses - if there's one more food resource in vicinity of the horses. I think coastal tiles will be good enough to work in this game, and Dutch want coastal cities in general; unfortunately N of the horse would be under too much pressure from Thoth, and the fish is a lost cause, so fingers crossed S of the horse is viable. Then I have a spot with a few workable tiles NW of the sheep. That's the extent of my expansion prospects

The land is barren, and not irrigatable in any way. I said a few posts back that the tile W of the southern gold was riverside, unfortunately the sim session this morning made me realise that it's not, the river is too short. The screenshot above confirms it (no commerce on that tile after the forest is chopped). The two rivers in my area are both fully surrounded by hills, I cannot irrigate from them. There's no roundabout way like Serfdom farms to make these plains useful

So basically tech advantage I will get from a double gold start is the only thing going for me. And I need to take advantage of it in the early game, before others outscale me. The way I see it, this start pushes me towards early aggression with superior units. As for which units, I see 3 options - swordsmen on galleys, horse archers, or a Construction beeline

Now here's the problem. When it comes to the question "who do I attack?", there's only one answer. Superdeath is a dozen tiles away, behind rough terrain; even if I attack him successfully, integrating his land would be a nightmare. Others are even farther away. Maybe my workboat finds something as it explores in northern direction, but so far there's no viable targets there. So far it looks like, if I'm attacking someone in the early game, it has to be Thoth. Question is, did he explore enough of the land around me to know this as well?

I still have time to choose the plan; at the moment I favour swordsmen on galleys. Probably going IW after Pottery to see where iron is; there's no rush to research Writing, as I won't be able to slot a library in the capital until at least T50 - it has to work on workers and settlers. Or could still go for Judaism - kinda need to deny Thoth the 2nd ring of his city, so that he doesn't see my attack too early. Except this time it would be a well thought out research for Judaism, not an emotional reaction