Posts: 2,390
Threads: 20
Joined: Oct 2011
Turn 11 came in. It looks like we may be in some serious trouble here:
![[Image: Civ4_Screen_Shot0002.jpg]](http://s7.postimage.org/4xdfmm35n/Civ4_Screen_Shot0002.jpg)
After killing our scout, that lizardman promoted to combat II. I ran a few sims in worldbuilder. It looks like our defending warrior in Hyll gets something like 65% odds. In Evermore, the situation's worse; something more like 35% odds (once we actually build a warrior there, that is); that's taking into account the extra culture defense (Evermore gets the third ring next turn) and
the possibility of building a palisade. As near as I can tell, the lizardman will choose its target randomly; in my sims, it sometimes went for the close city with the defender, sometimes for an undefended city further away.
So it looks like there's a nonzero chance that my farmer's gambit will lead to an early elimination (or at the very least cripple me). I switched Hyll from building a worker to building a warrior (due in 3 turns), and switched Evermore to working a plains hill to finish its warrior faster (due in 2 turns).
In other news, we finished a farm (which isn't being worked) and started another one. Also, lost our western scout to the griffon.
Posts: 2,390
Threads: 20
Joined: Oct 2011
Turn 12 came in. Good news and bad news (for real this time).
The good news is that that C2 lizard went NW: it's marching on Hyll, rather than Evermore. Still a dangerous situation, so I switched Hyll to working 2 plains hills to finish a second warrior. Evermore can breath a little easier, so I switched back to working the floodplains and grew it to size 2.
The bad news is that more barbs are on the horizon. There's another lizardman 1 tile behind the scary one, and a barbarian warrior one tile behind that lizard.
Those are unpromoted, so they're not so big a threat. Really wish I had some spare warriors, though. It'd be nice to be able to afford to go on the offensive and pick up some xp (at least on the barb warrior), but it looks like that may be too dangerous at our present levels of military.
Posts: 2,390
Threads: 20
Joined: Oct 2011
Turn 13 has come and gone. Here's a screenshot from EOT:
![[Image: Civ4_Screen_Shot0010.jpg]](http://s17.postimage.org/b1tqgsjov/Civ4_Screen_Shot0010.jpg)
As you can see, the barbarians are at the gates. A lot will depend on whether or not that lizardman kills our fortified warrior. According to my test, it has
32.2% odds to do so. If that happens, Hyll will surely fall. If not, we ought to be able to hold, and maybe get some promoted warriors out of it.
In other news, we're still lagging far behind everyone else. It looks like Ellimist got another hut tech, putting him at over twice our score. 
Posts: 17,809
Threads: 161
Joined: May 2011
Oi. That's going to be a pretty tense fight. Game rides on this, actually. No sign of greenskins looking to capitalize on the barbs?
Posts: 2,390
Threads: 20
Joined: Oct 2011
No idea what Ellimist is up to. Demos say he has positive GNP now, but I think that's from working some commerce resources rather than losing some of his archers (power hasn't changed). No sign of him by our borders, so we can only hope he hasn't found us.
Posts: 2,390
Threads: 20
Joined: Oct 2011
HidingKneel Wrote:No idea what Ellimist is up to.
Scratch that.
Yell0w Wrote:Even though large tracts of our Soil and old and famous Cities have fallen or may fall into the grip of the Goblins and all the odious apparatus of Clan rule, we shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength, we shall defend our Nation, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender.
It looks like Ellimist is gunning for Yell0w first. I wouldn't have guessed it, but it makes sense on several levels:
a) Aside from Ellimist, he's the big-dog right now, at least score-wise.
b) Centaurs are mounted units which receive defensive bonuses, which can be built without stables. I'd say that makes them the earliest effective counter to Ellimist's archers. Yell0w's also in a good position to get to them quickly, by virtue of a).
c) The PYFT factor. Turn pace actually been really good in this game; we've managed a turn a day with only one exception so far. But Yell0w's typically got the save for at least 12 hours a day (once more than 24 hours). It's possible that turn pace might pick up substantially if he's eliminated.
Not sure how this will play out. I think a) is due to some big cities, which might be in a good position to churn out warriors to hold Ellimist off. Hopefully the conquest will at least cost Ellimist a few of his archers. Unfortunately, those which do survive ought to come out highly promoted, so he'll be able to just roll over whoever is next on his list.
If Yell0w goes down, Ellimist will almost certainly lose peace with the barbs. This could be very bad for reasons mentioned earlier. But it'll also force him to defend territory in a way he doesn't have to right now. And if he decides to hang on to Yell0w's cities: that'll be a lot of distance maintenance on top of what he's already paying for his troops, plus more troops he'd have to take out of circulation to defend them. So all is not lost, quite yet.
Hopefully Yell0w can slow him down in time for someone else to develop a counter; I'm guessing HBR is a high priority for Kyan right now. If we manage to survive the next turn, I'm thinking crafting-mining-archery is a good tech path after calendar, given the situation. I may have been too quick to dismiss archers earlier; they should defend at around strength 10 in hill cities, and Ellimist's not likely to put cover on his troops. Plus, you, know, Gilden.
Posts: 2,390
Threads: 20
Joined: Oct 2011
Turn 14 is in. And.... nothing. The lizard waited for reinforcements. And it seems that reinforcements are on the way:
![[Image: Civ4_Screen_Shot0011.jpg]](http://s17.postimage.org/7ifvtkjvz/Civ4_Screen_Shot0011.jpg)
That's fine by me; gives me more time to build defenders and accumulate fortification bonus.
In other news, we finished a second farm by Evermore. Ellimist's power went up a little bit, and Yell0w doesn't seem to have lost a city yet.
Posts: 2,390
Threads: 20
Joined: Oct 2011
Turn 15 arrived with an epic battle:
![[Image: Civ4_Screen_Shot0000.jpg]](http://s15.postimage.org/gwxxz6ozv/Civ4_Screen_Shot0000.jpg)
As you can see, our odds were even better than I thought. For all the good it did us. 
More barbs on the horizon. I count five of them now, two lizardmen and three warriors. We haven't lost yet, though. There's still a warrior fortifying in Hyll, and I completed another one at the end of turn. I also sent the warrior from Evermore (completed last turn) north to help with defenses. The situation isn't good, though. We're probably dealing with a C3 lizardman next turn.
In other news, Evermore grew to size 3 this turn, and will be at size 4 in two more.
Posts: 17,809
Threads: 161
Joined: May 2011
Wow. Um, let's roll dem bones, I guess? Looks like the GM, at least, is providing a nice growth boost.
Posts: 2,390
Threads: 20
Joined: Oct 2011
Less the GM than the fact that I'm working 3 floodplains (2 of them farmed).
Catching up in population a little.
Looks like there's a 25% bonus vs. barbarians in that calculation that I didn't know about? Anyway, it's not over yet. Unpromoted barbs will probably attack next turn, and it's unlikely that we'll suffer casualties. Maybe we'll even be able to pick up a promotion. And an undamanged defender should still get roughly 50% odds against a C3 lizard, even without the fortification bonus.
|
