Okay, well, I sincerely appreciate all of your reassurances 
. Now to try to make TAD pay...uh, somehow 
.
Turn 122 - Phoenicia
Today's big news comes from an unexpected source: Oracle Bones, whose Cothon finishes to apparently add just enough beakers that Cartography is coming a turn early, namely next turn! That could be a real coup in terms of strategic positioning (if we go for Akkad) or simply enabling a northern attack to be viable at all. I immediately pull all the biremes back for mass-upgrades, leading to this:
I also beg you for all of your gold, and would appreciate you sending me your income turn by turn as it comes in for a little while too, at least until you need to upgrade frigates. When that time does come, I will do the reverse, but I think for right now we need as many caravels and frigates with as high a combat strength as we can possibly scrounge together to give this first strike some prayer of success.
Now that we're getting Cartography early, I think your next turn is the right time to send TAD a last-chance DoF offer, since it will arrive just as they see me spend our entire joint treasury on caravels. That is, if we're still going to do that...I do think it's the best play from an "odds to win the game" perspective (sub's war is really going to turn against them as soon as CMF's fleet shows up), but I also understand if the prospect of punishing TAD for their transgressions with eternal war is too compelling to pass up.
A few more domestic things: I finish the IA at Cuneiform, which starts a trader. The spy heads to the former Mohenjo-Daro as the most remote city from the front lines, and will take 5 turns to establish there (the same as for any other TAD city except WotW, which would apparently take 7 turns? No clue what the heck is going on there...). I get a governor title, and take Surplus Logistics as the most immediately helpful to the war effort - that's a weird thing to say, but I think it's true, Victor 1 will be pretty useless since TAD can easily just go around whichever city we put him in. Victor is way stronger on land maps, and would be strong in Writing on the Wall, but I think here the incentives don't really favor him as much. I do use the trader in Abjad on a 4f/4h route to Cuneiform to speed the walls along and grow the city onto its hammer tiles for caravels.
All the cities that finished builds this turn (and there were a fair few) start biremes for just this next turn, to put boosted hammers into caravels while we still can (before the 4t interim between Cartography and Press Gangs). Next turn, I'll start Limes walls everywhere, even on the east coast, since I don't want suboptimal getting any ideas, and because I wouldn't be able to boost the hammers if I put them into ships anyways. TAD has done the same in their eastern cities, of course, which I assume will finish just in time to significantly complicate any attempt at a flanking move to the north.
Here is the TAD situation. I think the fact that they've used literally all of their niter this last turn, in conjunction with some still-unupgraded quads at cities right on the border with us, indicates that they're not planning to make a big investment in caravels, and will instead use all those galleys as a meat shield for their frigates. Is that good for us? I don't know...unboosted galleys will melt like wet paper in the face of GA caravels and frigates. On the other hand, it will take a turn to make that happen, which will give TAD a chance to first strike and effectively trade Ancient ships for my Renaissance ones. I think it's a good plan tactically, and am not sure how to engage it besides to use my own biremes and your longships as meat shields against TAD's and hope to trade those off efficiently against the TAD galleys so our Renaissance ships can go in for the kill. On the other hand, on a pound for pound level I am way more scared of any caravels TAD might field than I am of the frigates, which our blob of Embolon caravels should counter just fine unless they manage to concentrate their ships in one place.
I really don't know about this northern attack though, honestly. We don't really know how many ships TAD has up there compared to in the south, and if I were TAD, I would respond to such an attack by trying to stalemate the main Phoenician fleet up north and then throwing all the southern ships at Norway where the Phoenicians can't effectively intervene. I don't know how we could fend something like that off with the limited number of ships we would then have in the area. Maybe the better move is to try to engage one half of TAD's fleet as it tries to make an offensive move or join up with the other half, so that we at least don't have to fight them on their own turf with defensive terrain on their side and a hail of city fire to worry about. That would favor a first strike at Writing on the Wall, and then attacking the ships as they try to move into position to retake the city. If they take too long to do that, I could then occupy the island choke point to the south and try to stall for time until we get Press Gangs in place and can outproduce them.
...at least, I hope we can outproduce them. I don't know what their development is like, but I have to imagine we should be able to, even though +50% hammers isn't really a huge advantage (with Press Gangs' +100%, that's just a 5/4 hammer advantage over TAD). I am at least working almost all of my domestic hammer tiles now, with the last few set to come online over the next 20t with border expansions and the traders at Abjad and eventually Linear A/B. Here's hoping that will be enough. Depending on how many domestic TRs I end up with, I might have Cuneiform break from ships for the IZ (which will be doubly-discounted from the usual discount and Phoenicia's ability) even if war is still ongoing, +3 hammers at the capital plus one more in every city with a TR could pay for itself very quickly. Everywhere else will spam ships until we win or die, duh, except perhaps for the last few lighthouses to get more TRs and give Demotic something to do (right now its plan is to do the market next for, yes, another TR).
edit: I hate to say this, but...I wonder if I should just bite the bullet and swap to Oligarchy after we get to Press Gangs, or maybe even next turn. I'd lose 300 beakers and 150 culture, which is bad but of no real military relevance, and 150ish gold (after my gpt craters from all these upgrades), which is just one caravel. I would also lose 3 turns of Press Gangs, which is the biggest loss since it means building caravels at +50% speed rather than +150% speed. It really could be worth it, though, as we are utterly reliant on our caravels to win this war for us and +4 strength on them all would be hugely significant. I somehow forgot to add "no Oligarchic Legacy" to my list of biggest unforced errors this game, but I now feel extremely confident about slotting it in as a firm #2. Honestly, that one policy is just so significant for military success in Civ6 (as I think this game pretty convincingly illustrates), and I can't imagine a future scenario in which I'd ever want to build the AH in any other government going forward.
. Now to try to make TAD pay...uh, somehow .Turn 122 - Phoenicia
Today's big news comes from an unexpected source: Oracle Bones, whose Cothon finishes to apparently add just enough beakers that Cartography is coming a turn early, namely next turn! That could be a real coup in terms of strategic positioning (if we go for Akkad) or simply enabling a northern attack to be viable at all. I immediately pull all the biremes back for mass-upgrades, leading to this:
I also beg you for all of your gold, and would appreciate you sending me your income turn by turn as it comes in for a little while too, at least until you need to upgrade frigates. When that time does come, I will do the reverse, but I think for right now we need as many caravels and frigates with as high a combat strength as we can possibly scrounge together to give this first strike some prayer of success.
Now that we're getting Cartography early, I think your next turn is the right time to send TAD a last-chance DoF offer, since it will arrive just as they see me spend our entire joint treasury on caravels. That is, if we're still going to do that...I do think it's the best play from an "odds to win the game" perspective (sub's war is really going to turn against them as soon as CMF's fleet shows up), but I also understand if the prospect of punishing TAD for their transgressions with eternal war is too compelling to pass up
.A few more domestic things: I finish the IA at Cuneiform, which starts a trader. The spy heads to the former Mohenjo-Daro as the most remote city from the front lines, and will take 5 turns to establish there (the same as for any other TAD city except WotW, which would apparently take 7 turns? No clue what the heck is going on there...). I get a governor title, and take Surplus Logistics as the most immediately helpful to the war effort - that's a weird thing to say, but I think it's true, Victor 1 will be pretty useless since TAD can easily just go around whichever city we put him in. Victor is way stronger on land maps, and would be strong in Writing on the Wall, but I think here the incentives don't really favor him as much. I do use the trader in Abjad on a 4f/4h route to Cuneiform to speed the walls along and grow the city onto its hammer tiles for caravels.
All the cities that finished builds this turn (and there were a fair few) start biremes for just this next turn, to put boosted hammers into caravels while we still can (before the 4t interim between Cartography and Press Gangs). Next turn, I'll start Limes walls everywhere, even on the east coast, since I don't want suboptimal getting any ideas, and because I wouldn't be able to boost the hammers if I put them into ships anyways. TAD has done the same in their eastern cities, of course, which I assume will finish just in time to significantly complicate any attempt at a flanking move to the north.
Here is the TAD situation. I think the fact that they've used literally all of their niter this last turn, in conjunction with some still-unupgraded quads at cities right on the border with us, indicates that they're not planning to make a big investment in caravels, and will instead use all those galleys as a meat shield for their frigates. Is that good for us? I don't know...unboosted galleys will melt like wet paper in the face of GA caravels and frigates. On the other hand, it will take a turn to make that happen, which will give TAD a chance to first strike and effectively trade Ancient ships for my Renaissance ones. I think it's a good plan tactically, and am not sure how to engage it besides to use my own biremes and your longships as meat shields against TAD's and hope to trade those off efficiently against the TAD galleys so our Renaissance ships can go in for the kill. On the other hand, on a pound for pound level I am way more scared of any caravels TAD might field than I am of the frigates, which our blob of Embolon caravels should counter just fine unless they manage to concentrate their ships in one place.
I really don't know about this northern attack though, honestly. We don't really know how many ships TAD has up there compared to in the south, and if I were TAD, I would respond to such an attack by trying to stalemate the main Phoenician fleet up north and then throwing all the southern ships at Norway where the Phoenicians can't effectively intervene. I don't know how we could fend something like that off with the limited number of ships we would then have in the area. Maybe the better move is to try to engage one half of TAD's fleet as it tries to make an offensive move or join up with the other half, so that we at least don't have to fight them on their own turf with defensive terrain on their side and a hail of city fire to worry about. That would favor a first strike at Writing on the Wall, and then attacking the ships as they try to move into position to retake the city. If they take too long to do that, I could then occupy the island choke point to the south and try to stall for time until we get Press Gangs in place and can outproduce them.
...at least, I hope we can outproduce them
. I don't know what their development is like, but I have to imagine we should be able to, even though +50% hammers isn't really a huge advantage (with Press Gangs' +100%, that's just a 5/4 hammer advantage over TAD). I am at least working almost all of my domestic hammer tiles now, with the last few set to come online over the next 20t with border expansions and the traders at Abjad and eventually Linear A/B. Here's hoping that will be enough. Depending on how many domestic TRs I end up with, I might have Cuneiform break from ships for the IZ (which will be doubly-discounted from the usual discount and Phoenicia's ability) even if war is still ongoing, +3 hammers at the capital plus one more in every city with a TR could pay for itself very quickly. Everywhere else will spam ships until we win or die, duh, except perhaps for the last few lighthouses to get more TRs and give Demotic something to do (right now its plan is to do the market next for, yes, another TR).edit: I hate to say this, but...I wonder if I should just bite the bullet and swap to Oligarchy after we get to Press Gangs, or maybe even next turn. I'd lose 300 beakers and 150 culture, which is bad but of no real military relevance, and 150ish gold (after my gpt craters from all these upgrades), which is just one caravel. I would also lose 3 turns of Press Gangs, which is the biggest loss since it means building caravels at +50% speed rather than +150% speed. It really could be worth it, though, as we are utterly reliant on our caravels to win this war for us and +4 strength on them all would be hugely significant. I somehow forgot to add "no Oligarchic Legacy" to my list of biggest unforced errors this game, but I now feel extremely confident about slotting it in as a firm #2
. Honestly, that one policy is just so significant for military success in Civ6 (as I think this game pretty convincingly illustrates), and I can't imagine a future scenario in which I'd ever want to build the AH in any other government going forward.
in 5 turns to buy the tiles for my encampments and will need another 160 a few turns after to upgrade a frigate. Then, depending on how the war is going, I might need what I am earning to upgrade some berserkers to increase the defensive strength of my cities and some crossbows for defense.
