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Roland Wrote:Are you trying to make a point with this? I mean, honestly, as much as I enjoy your little pictorial quips, in this case it's just confusing more than humorous or witty. Care to elaborate?
Essentially novice was nominated not by wolves, in some byzantine plot. Of course novice may have been opportunistic. We lack so much information, but this is relevant with novice being up as a lynch candidate.
Originally snipped a rambling idea, so sorry for the confusion.
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Jkaen Wrote:Oh, I just realised I meant to add that the fool shouldn't reveal himself, even though the role is now meaningless. Initially I thought if they came out and we could match their behaviour to somebody who thought they were a seer it would be one less suspect. but then i realised that it would mean the wolves would know one less villager was the baner which is the only power role we still have to protect
Roland Wrote:I do agree with JKaen, though - the Fool should stay hidden, as even though he's almost useless, it does eliminate that person from being considered the Baner, thus, ever-so-slightly decreasing the odds of the Baner being found.
Why should the Fool stay hidden? The Fool is a villager now. I could come out and claim that I'm the Fool now, but who cares? Here, I'll demonstrate:
scooter Wrote:I'd like to announce to you all that I have a role in this village. My role is villager. I've been trying to decide when the best time to come out is, and now seems like the right time.
There. Replace the word Fool with villager if you want, but it carries the exact same weight. The Fool doesn't need to stay "hidden" per se, he just needs to just play the game, because he's a villager now, and any person claiming to be the Fool is exactly that - they are a fool - because their claim means jack squat at the moment, and it sure as heck won't mean anything to a werewolf. 
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Wrong. lets say there are 9 villagers and 1 baner. the werewolves have a 10% chance of guessing the baner.
If its now 8 villagers, 1 baner and 1 known fool the wolves have a 1 in 9 chance of guessing right.
Its pretty basic maths and I am suprised you are discrediting it
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scooter Wrote:The Fool doesn't need to stay "hidden" per se, he just needs to just play the game, because he's a villager now, and any person claiming to be the Fool is exactly that - they are a fool - because their claim means jack squat at the moment, and it sure as heck won't mean anything to a werewolf.
Actually, roleclaiming the fool has a function - either someone else (the real fool) will know you're lying, or they won't. If you're lying, the real fool has little to lose by outing you, and fake outing you would be a risky move by a wolf. So role-claiming the fool can help confirm your villager status.
I don't know if you can follow that, but I guess what I'm saying is that if the fool finds himself being bandwagoned, roleclaiming makes sense.
I have to run.
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Jkaen Wrote:Wrong. lets say there are 9 villagers and 1 baner. the werewolves have a 10% chance of guessing the baner.
If its now 8 villagers, 1 baner and 1 known fool the wolves have a 1 in 9 chance of guessing right.
Its pretty basic maths and I am suprised you are discrediting it
Roland the wolf would it ignore it completely. Nothing stops the baner from coming out and saying they are only a villager.
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scooter Wrote:Why should the Fool stay hidden? The Fool is a villager now. I could come out and claim that I'm the Fool now, but who cares? Here, I'll demonstrate:
There. Replace the word Fool with villager if you want, but it carries the exact same weight. The Fool doesn't need to stay "hidden" per se, he just needs to just play the game, because he's a villager now, and any person claiming to be the Fool is exactly that - they are a fool - because their claim means jack squat at the moment, and it sure as heck won't mean anything to a werewolf.
Well, technically no it doesn't. See novice's and JKaen's points on the subject. Claiming to be a Villager is not unique - everyone does that. Claiming a specific role (i.e. the Fool) puts you on the block; if you are the Fool, you just eliminated one possibility from the 'Wolves pool to be the Baner, and if you're not you just outed yourself as a liar. Both scenarios, if the person is a Villager, are undesirable. I don't think that's very hard to understand.
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Remember last game - Kyan came out and claimed to be the second mason after the first mason got KO'd. Know what the funny thing is? None of the wolves really believed it, it was the villagers who got fooled. My point is that if someone claims fool, it means nothing because no one can ever verify it for the entirety of the game until they are dead. Think about it.
Let's say player A is getting bandwagoned and he is the fool. He goes "wait guys, I'm the fool so I must be a villager!" No one can verify this ever. A wolf then pipes up and goes "um, guys, he's lying, I'm the fool" and then who are you going to believe? No one can ever verify it, so as far as I'm concerned, I will not believe anyone who claims to be the fool, because it's a painfully easy wolf tactic, because no one can ever prove it until they are dead. Worst comes to worst, one person will know he's lying, but who cares?
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I dont seem to be explaining this right.
The wolves have 10 targets they only know are not wolves. 1 of which is a baner. hence a 1 in 10 chance of randomly lynching the baner
If the fool claims then there is 9 targets who may be the baner hence a 1 in 9 chance of hitting the baner.
There is to my mind no reason in this entire game the baner should ever announce who he is
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Jkaen Wrote:I dont seem to be explaining this right.
The wolves have 10 targets they only know are not wolves. 1 of which is a baner. hence a 1 in 10 chance of randomly lynching the baner
If the fool claims then there is 9 targets who may be the baner hence a 1 in 9 chance of hitting the baner.
Yes, I get this. My point is two-fold:
1. Why do you think the werewolves would believe a fool claim? That would actually be a clever baner move - the baner claiming to be fool. In WW2, we didn't completely believe Kyan when he said he was the second mason, because his claim was irrelevant and un-provable. Turns out, he wasn't.
2. What makes you think a fool claim is not a wolf? It would be a painfully easy tactic to execute by a wolf.
In conclusion, claiming to be the fool is irrelevant and a waste of a post.
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Jkaen Wrote:Oh, I just realised I meant to add that the fool shouldn't reveal himself, even though the role is now meaningless. Initially I thought if they came out and we could match their behaviour to somebody who thought they were a seer it would be one less suspect. but then i realised that it would mean the wolves would know one less villager was the baner which is the only power role we still have to protect
 people you do realize I claimed the fool from the begining anyone else who wants to be the fool needs to kill me first. Seriously I am the village fool.*
I found that hilarious and though I should point it out.
*[SIZE="1"]Being the village fool does not mean I am the real fool.[/SIZE]
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