a) the case on CMF from SD
b) the case on GKC from naufragar
And I mean literally that I don't see the case as in "What is your case actually?". I mean be as upset as Rowain about my case on him, but at least I give reasons. pindicator gives reasons on Meiz, even if I would not vote for Meiz today, if you don't actually present a smoking gun pindicator. GKC made a post on naufragar, stating his opinions on his play so far at least.
But those two? SD made his vote, reason: CMF stayed on me at the end. And after that just one more post, non-committal. He alludes to reading more to make a more clear vote, but with just 6.5 hours remaining before end of Day, when is that going to happen?
naufs case on GKC basically seems "Serdoa is a wolf and protects GKC" together with a "GKC tries to set me up", that's not really much either imo.
So, these two I don't like, with nauf being suspicious to me since Day 1 (as everyone knows...). Insofar
#5: Joke
#39: Requesting information why I don't want to vote Lewwyn.
#44: Renewing his question as I didn't fully get it the first time.
#143: Just chiming in, no content. Says he will re-read the 15 pages before commenting. (9:47)
#144: Votes SD, because of SDs vote without reason and without giving reason when asked (10:10)
Also Rowain is good because he asks questions and forces people to talk
scooter is also good because he forces people to talk, but could be wolf (notice the difference despite nearly identical description of behavior)
I also have to point out that re-reading 15 pages in 23 minutes seems quite fast. Was the start though, so maybe possible.
#152: Time constraints discussion with Cyneheard
#193: nauf feels town to him, stays on SD because SD hasn't yet commented and he wants to keep the pressure on
#195: Feels the need to clarify that he wants SD to participate but with no guarantee that he will change vote if SD does
This does sound like a wolf that wants to keep all options open. Not that he keeps his options open, but that he writes it down so he can point back to it and tell people that he stated that from the beginning. Covering his bases.
#260: game-theory / explanation towards SD
#261: vote for Bob, because Bob should know that his play will get him lynched
#301: Reaction to pinds vote on him, that boils down to "How dare you, I have no time for this right now" and the explanation that yes, his votes were not well thought out.
#307: He stays on Bob, because Cyneheard has more content in his posts
#332: Comments on Charriu pointing out the same I do above about post nr. 301. That comment boils down to "He is wrong, I did do stuff, all accusations against me are baseless" - looking back up, that is different to before when he admitted his thoughts were not well thought out but he had time constraints. Now instead the attack is baseless. Which of the two is it?
#340: ....
I don't have time left for the rest. Conclusion: That all does not look too good, low content, contradictions...
#5: Joke
#39: Requesting information why I don't want to vote Lewwyn.
#44: Renewing his question as I didn't fully get it the first time.
#143: Just chiming in, no content. Says he will re-read the 15 pages before commenting. (9:47)
#144: Votes SD, because of SDs vote without reason and without giving reason when asked (10:10)
Also Rowain is good because he asks questions and forces people to talk
scooter is also good because he forces people to talk, but could be wolf (notice the difference despite nearly identical description of behavior)
I also have to point out that re-reading 15 pages in 23 minutes seems quite fast. Was the start though, so maybe possible.
#152: Time constraints discussion with Cyneheard
#193: nauf feels town to him, stays on SD because SD hasn't yet commented and he wants to keep the pressure on
#195: Feels the need to clarify that he wants SD to participate but with no guarantee that he will change vote if SD does
This does sound like a wolf that wants to keep all options open. Not that he keeps his options open, but that he writes it down so he can point back to it and tell people that he stated that from the beginning. Covering his bases.
#260: game-theory / explanation towards SD
#261: vote for Bob, because Bob should know that his play will get him lynched
#301: Reaction to pinds vote on him, that boils down to "How dare you, I have no time for this right now" and the explanation that yes, his votes were not well thought out.
#307: He stays on Bob, because Cyneheard has more content in his posts
#332: Comments on Charriu pointing out the same I do above about post nr. 301. That comment boils down to "He is wrong, I did do stuff, all accusations against me are baseless" - looking back up, that is different to before when he admitted his thoughts were not well thought out but he had time constraints. Now instead the attack is baseless. Which of the two is it?
#340: ....
I don't have time left for the rest. Conclusion: That all does not look too good, low content, contradictions...
How do you assess Adrien now?
Same assessment. I've looked at all other posts that happened since I left off, and none of them are any more input. It's all one or two-liners, which I understand that time does not permit to more. But those one and two-liners are also just observations without conclusions.
If I had to choose right now between him and basically anyone else, it would be him. With the notable exception of naufragar and SD. naufragar I think I don't need to explain and SD because at least with AdrienIer there are posts, even if they lack content and thoughts. With SD there is not even that.
(September 2nd, 2020, 19:13)Cyneheard Wrote: Was my second post with platitudes? Uh, yeah? If he's being earnest, then the platitudes might actually be helpful because he's struggling to understand the point of day 1 - trying a different way to explain things because obviously it wasn't working whether because he's not getting it or he's choosing not to get it.
Who do I have a read on? It's hard because there's been a lot of quiet people, and I'm trying to be respectful of time outside the game too.
Obviously willing to go back to pind, whose early wagoning felt off to me and I haven't seen much from him since.
We've got a few people who really haven't said much today. And Bob's barely added anything this evening except a too-earnest "lynch me if you will" that we've all noticed.
Serdoa and Rowain are both people I always struggle to read. I'm not seeing anything different about them from what I seem to remember. Lewwyn, you're as usual flooding the boards with everything and I think on balance it's helpful.
Gaspar's tunneled on me a bit, and when he has he's basically just said "you're suspicious because you are" and that's it, hard for me to be objective.
I'm trying to understand why I'm suspicious at the same time as GKC when we're trying to tell superdeath the same thing. The biggest difference is that I moved my vote to SD but GKC explicitly didn't change his - so what? Every post is an opportunity to change a vote.
You keep saying quiet people quiet people, maybe I'm mistaken, but there's been a great amount of activity in this thread, almost hard to keep up, and everyone has at least 7 posts. That's enough to make even a vague judgement on anyone, and I don't understand your repeating of this line.
I disagree Gaspar, the post wasn't really apolegetic in tone, it just seems a bit strange given Cyneheard's own silence/parrotting earlier in post 10, 70.
Also, the "love-fest" between Gaspar and Lewwyn continues? I don't like this aggression against cyne without detailed reasoning - perhaps I'm too noob to understand
Also, Cyne, with so many votes on SD, why do you feel the need to put a further vote on him? Any other avenues you wish to pursue?
This is actually defending Cyneheard, don't know how I missed it in the first read. Then the heat picks up, I'm providing reasons to vote Cyneheard with pretty much exact reason he's stating on the first line, yet he never considers going back to his early suspicions.
Yes that is one the posts where you put dirt on cyneheard but still you never put your vote on him. You kept it on naufragar until you moved to Bob.
That is a very classical wolfmove. Throw some accusations on one fellow wolf so that if you ( that seemed a bit more likely early on) or him get caught you have a nice distance.
I called this out about you in my very first vote: you’ll play with effort and go into great detail about all sorts of players, but when I asked specifically about GKC today (in-game day), you say
(September 5th, 2020, 08:16)Serdoa Wrote:
(September 5th, 2020, 08:01)naufragar Wrote:
(September 5th, 2020, 07:30)Serdoa Wrote: With the way I view naufragar (wolf) I think it could be that Cyneheard tried to deliberately save naufragar from being lynched. That's why he took a clear stance on him (and GKC as another newbie to make it not obvious) while being wishy-washy on everyone else, that's why he defended him and that is also why he did never answer me at the end.
Serdoa, what's your read of GKC?
None, neither town nor wolf. I like some of the things he wrote in regards to you though. But in general, I'm more inclined to question / vote for you, scooter, AdrienIer, Comm, SD (the latter still not really playing and skating by).
When talking to Commodore, I said that there was likely at least 1 wolf among the five living players that voted for Bob (Commodore, Scooter, Adrien, GKC Superdeath). Do you disagree? What keeps GKC off your radar?
(September 6th, 2020, 04:50)Serdoa Wrote: naufs case on GKC basically seems "Serdoa is a wolf and protects GKC" together with a "GKC tries to set me up", that's not really much either imo.
I’m not whining about GKC setting me up. I’m claiming that he consistently and repeatedly lets his accusations outstrip the facts and he makes up the difference with winks and nudges. You, brother, try to set me up but I don’t accuse you of hiding behind wishy washy language. You don’t have to agree with my point, but I don’t believe you didn’t understand it, especially after:
(September 6th, 2020, 04:18)Serdoa Wrote: I feel you are very crafty with words here scooter. I can't explain it in English unfortunately, but the way you worded these questions towards me is... odd. You ask questions, but it feels as though you actually make an observation or conclusion already with it. As if you condemn me, but without saying it.
and
(September 5th, 2020, 01:28)Serdoa Wrote: And that is what I try to point out the whole time, it is just extremely hard for me to do, as I have to translate my thoughts first. nauf does that all the time, he changes what was written or the obvious meaning that was given, but just slightly enough that it is hard to explain how meaning or writing was altered without writing a wall of text that probably no one wants to read.
In my case, you think that constitutes enough for a wolf vote. In fact, it’s what made you vote for me at the beginning, but now you can’t even comment on what GKC is doing?
(September 6th, 2020, 04:18)Serdoa Wrote: While this was not written about me, I felt it a little. I still think my theories are valid, but I'm sorry nauf, I think some of those points might indeed be true about me as well and I probably have read everything you posted with a veil of "he is a wolf for certain" on my eyes. I will try to be fairer in my assessment and also take counter-points to you being a wolf into account.
Reading this and then seeing you vote for me in the next post broke my heart.
I’m not as glued to my computer over the weekend as I am during the work week. Also the hour before the deadline is Sunday brunch time where I’m from. I’ve got no problems with an Adrien vote, doubly so if my name starts climbing the lists. I think it’s too early to give up on GKC. Low vote tallies all around. I think GKC can make the climb, so I’m keeping my vote on him.
(September 6th, 2020, 02:24)Rowain Wrote: If Adrien is a wolf then pindi is cleared and both Meiz and GKC should be under scrutiny.
Rowain, I’ll hold you to that last part. (But feel free to skip that step and hop back on GKC.)
Taking another look at day 1 votes. This is a list of events as well, so putting it unders spoilers. I bolded my stronger conclusions.
Lewwyn is the first to make the attack, #254 (and the followup posts). Adrien votes Bob and goes to sleep, which on re-glance I'm giving a null read. The attention against Cyne is still low. Lewwyn then sidetracks to Bob, and Gaspar puts attention back to Cyneheard a bit later (#272). Lewwyn has already mentioned to Bob he'd rather vote Cyneheard but is trying to get info out from him.
Scooter chimes in (#274), suspicious for Cyneheard's low-hanging vote and hoping to hear more.
Gaspar reinforces his suspicion against Cyneheard, #277
GKC's attention is on Cyneheard (#279). Distancing or not? I'm currently leaning more towards no.
Anyway, I would say the attention and suspicion on Cyneheard is quite high at this point, so wolves should be feeling a bit of pressure.
superdeath answers to Cyne (#281) and votes Bob. Still think it's more likely Cyneheard needed to make a concrete vote to appear active, and chose an easy target of superdeath. But do note this read is all based on what Cyneheard did, and we need to keep looking what superdeath does.
Commodore is very much on the fence in his post (#282), though preferring Bob. "Cyneheard is responding very strongly to what looks like a single vote". Can't really read this one way or another, null.
I think it's noteworthy that he does not comment on Bob or Cyneheard on why they would be town or scum. This is why I've referred his attack as narrow earlier. He is making the connection through Adrien's play though. As soon as Commodore was pushed, Adrien votes superdeath. And as soon as Cyneheard gets attention, Adrien votes Bob. But he is not opening up on why Cyneheard is scum, and therefore making Adrien's vote a potential save move.
If Adrien is a wolf, Pindicator is a very insightful player. Or, Pindicator has too much info which allows him to make these connections as he would already know Cyneheard's role (and start the layout already in his earlier post of prodding Adrien's view on Cyneheard).
Continuing the events, I think my push for Cyneheard (#294) adds very much pressure for wolves.
Charriu questions commodore (#297) and does not mention others.
Rowain votes Cyneheard (#299). One could argue this is the point where wolves are safe to start distancing, but for now I'm giving a small town lean for rowain for this push, despite him switching in the end. It pushes the attention towards Cyneheard.
But more notably this goes for Serdoa's vote (#304). He votes Bob, then realizes he's just putting 10th vote on Bob. I think it's pro-town move to not just pile on Bob's bad play, but instead push another suspicious player up as a lynch candidate. This just reinforces my feeling for Serdoa as town.
The votes are now:
Bob (7): Commodore,scooter,El Grillo, AdrienIer,Lewwyn, SD,GKC
SD (4): CMF,naufragar,Charriu,Cyneheard
Cyneheard (4): Gaspar,Meiz,Rowain,Serdoa
AdrienIer (1): pindi
Lewwyn (1): Bob
Adrien chimes in (#307). "Ok I got to reread Bob and Cyneheard, I'm staying on Bob. Cyneheard had some good posts looking into people, Bob basically hasn't." Now this is suspicious, because Cyneheard's posts have not had much content. Adrien does not analyze why people are suspecting & voting for Cyne, but instead takes a very "policy lynch" stance.
Serdoa start to dig deeper into Cyneheards posts (#309).
And then naufragar piles agaisnt Cyneheard (#312). "I'm content enough to vote Cyneheard, partly for the reasons others have mentioned (odd interactions with Superdeath, early weaker posts), partly because I suspect wolves pushed Bob and want to jump off to leave village holding the bag, so getting Cyneheard up there might provoke a reaction." You can see the voting tally above, so his vote puts Cyneheard as a very real lynch candidate. Occam's razor says he is more likely town for this push.
Commodore is not interested in the current piling against Cyneheard (#315). So to me that signals he's not interested in digging what the Cyneheard voters are about, but is instead content to keep voting Bob. I do find this suspicious.
CMF is very much on the fence (#316) and keeps his vote on superdeath. The action itself is suspicious but his posts today made me put him quite firmly in the town camp. It fits with the unsure feeling all town has on day 1.
Lewwyn pushes Cyneheard even with Bob #318. This aligns very well with his original thoughts on Cyneheard, so I don't think he's doing a wolf gambit.
Rowain switches away from Cyneheard and to Lewwyn (#320). I've talked about this before, very suspicious move in itself (and enhanced with the lack of his own input on why Cyneheard is wolf), but still leaning more town on him based on rest of his play.
Pindicator post I do find wolfy (#324). He is still focusing on Adrien and not taking a firm stance on why Bob or Cyneheard should be lynched, or if one of them looks town. There is minor shade thown against Lewwyn as well, potentially hoping Rowain to keep pushing in that direction.
Charriu's post falls into the same bucket (#327). The vote itself is very potential move to save Cyneheard. And like Pindicator, he doesn't take any stance on Bob vs. Cyneheard. Both of these are posted in a time when Adrien is not a serious candidate for the lynch. I feel like at this point town should be taking a close look on who's on top and give their comments and preferences on them.
And no, I'm not damning people for looking for their best lynch targets 2 hours before the deadline is up. But with the light of knowing Cyneheard was a wolf, the lack of contribution to that discussion is suspicious to me.
Adrien switched his vote to Pindicator and has today used it in his defense, as the switch put Cyneheard closer to lynch. I think this is a null tell, as he always had the option to go back (which hi did in the end as well).
In the end Pindicator did comment on the Bob votes (#367). No mention of Cyneheard though.
(September 6th, 2020, 07:36)Lewwyn Wrote: Historically, Scooter isn’t a good wolf, he’s a great wolf.
His wolf play is also notoriously annoying one, forcing me to keep banging my head against him through most of the game and failing miserably to convince others. Not seeing that here.
(September 6th, 2020, 07:36)Lewwyn Wrote: Historically, Scooter isn’t a good wolf, he’s a great wolf.
His wolf play is also notoriously annoying one, forcing me to keep banging my head against him through most of the game and failing miserably to convince others. Not seeing that here.
I feel like I’m taking crazy pills for the last day because no one is listening about scooter being a wolf...
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
Reading this and then seeing you vote for me in the next post broke my heart. 
