[spoilers] Pindicator and Regoarrarr - Bismark of Ethiopia

[regoarrarr]

Okay now the options, not all of which can be done

1) TF axe on the SE road
a) Move him into the city
b) Take the 33% shot at the C1 Shock chariot (which we will obviously lose)

2) TF axe in the east
a) attack the wounded shock CR axe at 94% odds.
b) Move towards the currently unguarded Manxsome Foe
c) Magically get a 2nd worker to road the "1t cot" tile at which point we would have odds (64%) on that shock chariot (which we would, of course, lose)

Man I'm starting to see why most people don't name all their units the same name

My original plan was to "clog the roads", moving SE Road TF axe NE-N to the "1t farm" tile, and the spear out of More Cowbell NW-NW. That would make him use 1 of his chariots on the axe out of the city. Hmm that might not even matter as he would still have his other chariot plus both the axes on our 2 axes. It's even worse though because he can use his shock axe to kill the clogging axe and then use his 2 chariots on our 2 axes

[regoarrarr]

The good news on all of this?

Ha ha ha ha there is none.

Well....
[spoiler]
Okay - if we somehow survive this turn, we are in decent shape to clear this and possibly even retake BB, if, as I mentioned before, we can stop reinforcements, which we probably can't

[/spoiler]

[regoarrarr]

Ooh ooh! another silver lining

If our capital is razed (and he'd have to raze it I think), then maybe the Palace will go to More Cowbell, which is where we want it anyways

[regoarrarr]

So a time of staring at the screen, and I think that we have to

a) move the SE Road TF Axe into the city and
b) whip a scout

If we assume that the wounded shock CR axe vs. our scout is 100% (yeah but your Shock promotion is worthless against our Recon scount bui - suck it!!! ), and if we assume that my combat odds spreadsheet calculations are correct, then that means that to take the city, he has to win battles at 88%, 72% and 35% odds, which gives him total odds of winning all 3 battles of

22.18%. Ugh that's a lot higher than I was thinking.

But seriously, as much as I love regoarrarring up the thread, are you going to be around to discuss in the next 35 minutes, or should I just do my best?

[regoarrarr]

And yes I know I'm going a bit nuts with the spoiler tags....

[pindicator]

Just got home. Honestly, with how lady RNG is spiting us I just want to attack out.

Nah, just do what you think is best; that way I can provide the lurker entertainment with my snarky reposes when Commodore continues to win all the coin flip battles

[regoarrarr]

Just got home. Honestly, with how lady RNG is spiting us I just want to attack out.

Nah, just do what you think is best; that way I can provide the lurker entertainment with my snarky reposes when Commodore continues to win all the coin flip battles

Obviously he's reloading....

[regoarrarr]

Step 1 - take out his wounded CR1 Shock axe



Flawless victory!!

[regoarrarr]

We ended up piling the axe into the city, and whipped the scout



Pindicator suggested for QoTM

besides, if lady RNG is gonna bend us over, i want it done on my terms

But the odds were against us there, so we did not attack out.

Also piled an axe, spear and warrior on the tile 1SE of the capital.

We baited one of Commodore's chariots with our worker, but I doubt he takes it.

I ended up finishing the turn with 4s to spare

[regoarrarr]

Luckily one of our 5 whip unhappies in the capital wore off this turn, so we're still only with 1 unhappy.

We'll see how unhappy they are when Commodore BURNS IT DOWN!!!!

Also 2 of our axes have 5% fortify bonus, so instead of 88 and 72% odds, it's 79 and 70%, which drops his overall chances of success from 22% to 19%, which he should be able to succeed on the 3rd or 4th reload...