February 23rd, 2011, 10:44
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See, thats what I understood as well. And according to that, we do lynch someone who we do only know has a night role instead of someone we do know for sure is a wolf - at least if our Seer is not the fool.
Though IF our seer is the fool, then it could very well be that Selrahc is the real Seer. No way to know that right now, especially with Selrahc not posting. And thats exactly the reason I do have issues with this decision. From an analytical standpoint I would rather kill uberfish and either we know then, that he is a wolf, which does tell us that sunrise is the real seer and subsequently also ups the chance that Selrahc is a wolfish night role or it shows that uberfish is a villager in which case we know that sunrise is the Fool and subsequently it degrades the chance that Selrahc is a wolfish night role.
Add to that all that stuff I talked before (about voting patterns and stuff) and it makes less and less sense to take chances. Especially with the explanation that if Selrahc is the Devil we prevent that he does find the Owl. Thats first a 1 in 17 chance that he is the Devil and then a 1 in 16 chance that if he lives he would scan the right player to find the Owl.
February 23rd, 2011, 10:52
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Serdoa Wrote:Though IF our seer is the fool, then it could very well be that Selrahc is the real Seer. No way to know that right now, especially with Selrahc not posting. And thats exactly the reason I do have issues with this decision. From an analytical standpoint I would rather kill uberfish and either we know then, that he is a wolf, which does tell us that sunrise is the real seer and subsequently also ups the chance that Selrahc is a wolfish night role or it shows that uberfish is a villager in which case we know that sunrise is the Fool and subsequently it degrades the chance that Selrahc is a wolfish night role.
[strike] Selrahc[/strike]
uberfish
This makes the most sense of anything I've read today. The reward is equal, but the risk is much lower for lynching uberfish. If what I said a few posts ago can be explained by someone voting for Selrahc, please do it and I'll consider that, but until then, uberfish has my vote.
February 23rd, 2011, 10:56
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Selrahc is obviously not the real seer or he'd have claimed by now. Can we just kill him and come back to the question of my status tomorrow.
February 23rd, 2011, 11:03
(This post was last modified: February 23rd, 2011, 11:03 by Rowain.)
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Serdoa Wrote:From an analytical standpoint I would rather kill uberfish and either we know then, that he is a wolf, which does tell us that sunrise is the real seer ..
Wrong the fool recieves a random result so he can get it right sometimes.
(I'm sure I have posted this already  )
February 23rd, 2011, 11:06
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You are right with that Rowain - and you posted it. My bad for overlooking it.
February 23rd, 2011, 11:33
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I'm not the seer. I'm not a special role. If I had been I wouldn't have nominated myself for mayor.
I'm a villager. The owl is a lie. There isn't enough time for this to matter. But remember it. And go find the "Owl"
According to the only claimed seer, Uberfish is a werewolf.
According to an anonymous source, I should be voting for Gaspar.
I'll happily vote for either of these. They are certainly a much better shot than me. I just haven't been defending myself since there is so much crazy stuff... secret owl's, seer claims, random lying and revelations from Roland's camp. It is hard to know what to say.
90% of the time, when someone is caught out lying in games like these, they are a wolf.
A proxy role claim is fine. People should remember that from this game. If I'd been defending myself against the actual accusations from the start this day would have been a lot better for the village. That way Sunrise wouldn't have come forward.
Don't throw out data like candy! Even if I was the devil, I would be scant use to the wolves now. With everyone lining up to reveal their roles. If you leave the wolves guessing it is always better.
I object to being a sacrifice to the crazy claims of this day. Especially when there are so many layers involved in the accusations against me that I'm sure that it will end up costing us a villager.
February 23rd, 2011, 11:44
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haphazard1 Wrote:The trend was too rapid and too complete for anyone else to be an option, so why not grab the cover of the crowd? But the speed which with the pile developed makes me think Selrahc is a villager, and the wolves were only too happy to join the trend. It depends on whether you believe the owl role. If you do the rapid bandwagon makes as much sense as if a confirmed seer posted at the start of a day phase that he had just nailed a wolf with his ability.
haphazard1 Wrote:If I am wrong about Selrahc, then I am wrong -- just as so many of the Roland block were wrong yesterday about Meiz. They were certainly confident about their choice then, weren't they? I wish people wouldn't keep characterizing this this way, it's borderline disingenuous. For what I hope is the last time: whether or not the roland camp are wolves/wolf controlled, the Meiz lynch was an attempt at making the best use of limited information, and the outcome does not prove anything. The attempt to lynch selrahc is not the same thing. They have claimed a secret power role, and the only possibilities are that they have this role, that they are wolves, or that the owl is the fool.
Rowain Wrote:Really ? read their posts there is no sign of any doubt to be found. You yourself were so certain of Meiz's guild that you even used a completly false statement to justify your vote! Can you explain? I've still not read all of the Day2 posts, but as I recall I only claimed that Meiz was my most likely suspect.
Selrahc Wrote:I'm a villager. The owl is a lie. There isn't enough time for this to matter. But remember it. And go find the "Owl" If you're a villager as I said I will reveal the identity of the owl.
February 23rd, 2011, 11:47
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Lynch Votes:
2 = Gaspar: Haphazard1, MrNiceGuy
12 = Selrahc: Roland, uberfish, MJW, Kyan, Sareln, Gaspar, Lewwyn, sunrise089, Irgy, Ug the Barbarian, Dantski, Rowain
1 = Roland: Selrahc
1 = uberfish: scooter
No Votes:
Serdoa
Summary of Changes:
-
Sequence of Events:
[noparse]
1) Haphazard1: Voted for Gaspar
2) Ug the Barbarian: Voted for uberfish
3) Roland: Voted for Selrahc
4) uberfish: Voted for Selrahc
5) MJW: Voted for Selrahc
6) Kyan: Voted for Selrahc
7) Sareln: Voted for Selrahc
8) Gaspar: Voted for Selrahc
9) Selrahc: Voted for Roland
10) Lewwyn: Voted for Selrahc
11) Sunrise089: Voted for Selrahc
12) Ug the Barbarian: Switched to Selrahc
13) Irgy: Voted for Selrahc
14) Dantski: Voted for Selrahc
15) Scooter: Voted for Selrahc
16) MrNiceGuy: Voted for Gaspar
17) Rowain: Voted for Selrahc
18) scooter: Switched to uberfish
[/noparse]
February 23rd, 2011, 11:47
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Selrahc Wrote:According to an anonymous source, I should be voting for Gaspar.
Right... because obviously a villager would choose to anonymously pass information on through the #1 werewolf suspect.
February 23rd, 2011, 11:54
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sunrise089 Wrote:Can you explain? I've still not read all of the Day2 posts, but as I recall I only claimed that Meiz was my most likely suspect.
here you go (bolded the important part)
sunrise089 Wrote:Meiz is first on that list as he voted to save sandover and was opposed to scanning mjw. Contrary to your post Meiz was all for screening MJW. It is extremly funny that his wanting MJW scanned brought him on Lewwyn's Bad-list and killed him and here you are damning him for the opposite behaviour.
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