Because at least a few people chimed in that novice's play in WW1 was exemplary, and thus they trusted him to be an impartial person (if he's a Villager, of course), and the fact that I didn't (and still don't) trust the alternative (Rowain). No one else made a serious run for Mayor, or at least no one else got any traction for their bids, so it was really a choice between Rowain and novice, and between the two I trust novice more. You could call it the lesser of two evils, if you wanted, because I don't have any first-hand experience with novice, but I do with Rowain. Maybe I'm letting my experience in WW2 color my judgment here, but the fact that Rowain's sticking to the same strategy as before is enough for me not to trust him - although that alone is, as I've stated, too meta for me to want to lynch him over. So, that left novice, and I still feel comfortable enough with that vote. I don't think the 'Wolves wanted Mayor, but of course I've never been a 'Wolf so my experience on that end is very limited.
Honestly, my vote isn't going anywhere, and I can't really get into the mindset that the top 3>my sandover vote in terms of how likely wolf they are. I forgot who said this, or something like this, but either pb is a really quiet villager with no special role or is a cautious wolf OR is a special role and he learned from ww1. I think that it is that he is a cautious wolf. Somewhat of a gamble, but...
pocketbeetle
IMO, Mardoc's theory for me, Lewwyn, etc being the 5 wolves seems a bit far fetched. Like someone else said, some of your guesses are probably true(thinking pocketbettle for ex), but honestly at this point its just a guessing game atm.
Cull Wrote:Honestly, my vote isn't going anywhere, and I can't really get into the mindset that the top 3>my sandover vote in terms of how likely wolf they are. I forgot who said this, or something like this, but either pb is a really quiet villager with no special role or is a cautious wolf OR is a special role and he learned from ww1. I think that it is that he is a cautious wolf. Somewhat of a gamble, but...
pocketbeetle
IMO, Mardoc's theory for me, Lewwyn, etc being the 5 wolves seems a bit far fetched. Like someone else said, some of your guesses are probably true(thinking pocketbettle for ex), but honestly at this point its just a guessing game atm.
Actually Cull, I've been thinking about Sandover since Day 1, and I'm not alone. Bruindane had his eye on him, too. I'm not one to cast my lynch vote early, generally speaking, but I've been thinking all day about joining you before the end - especially since I'm not 100% comfortable with any of the top 3.
So, Bruindane, what makes Selrahc more suspicious to you than some of your other candidates, like Irgy, or Sandover?
Bruindane Wrote:It would be a very clever strategy for a wolf to have a huge count but very little accountability. Vote for me, instead of saying you should vote me.
Round and round we go. If you think your theory has that much weight, why hold back? I don't have anything to go on in voting for you, except for the very fact that you don't give much to go on. The fact that you consistently add very little to the discussion isn't helping me not to suspect you, nor is the fact that it seems like getting you to post your thoughts is like pulling teeth, but neither of those convince me you're a 'Wolf - just not as helpful as I would hope.
Bruindane Wrote:I have no idea what it is. He didn't post it, which makes it much more credible that it might work.
edit: fixed quote box
And this makes absolutely no sense to me. As far as I can tell, Rowain's theory is that pocketbeetle is a 'Wolf. At least, that's why he's voting for him. Based on that, you now switch away from pocketbeetle to Selrahc, claiming you don't suspect pocketbeetle, yet you do suspect Selrahc? If you suspected Selrahc, why did you bother voting for pocketbeetle in the first place? "To keep pressure on him," if I read it right, yes? Now that suddenly pocketbeetle was one vote away from Selrahc (and equal to novice), you decide to switch off without an further explanation (relying on your short post from earlier as your sole reasoning) and bring us to a 3-way tie? In what way does that help the Village, may I ask? Where I'm sitting, it looks like an easy way for the 'Wolves to subtly push towards a Villager lynch with hardly any way to track it. At least when it's only two candidates it's easier to trace it back and figure out who's the probable 'Wolf from it.
Bruindane Wrote:My vote will matter if I cast it on Selrahc. There's nothing concrete on any of my suspects.
We have 16 hours left, more than enough time to get momentum behind a vote for Sandover. There's nothing to say your vote won't matter just because it's not on one of the top candidates at that current moment, and to think otherwise is naive - or perfect cover for a 'Wolf.
I honestly don't get you Bruindane. I suppose if you are a 'Wolf you'll be found out eventually, but frankly I'm finding less reasons to consider you a Villager by the minute. I don't know. Maybe I'm just wasting my energy on this right now. Probably am. At any rate, I want to hear what Selrahc has to say in his defense, because even though I have my own reasons to suspect him they're rather frail, in my opinion. In that sense, I don't find that voting for him would make my vote "matter" any more than it would if I voted for, say, Gold Ergo Sum.
Roland Wrote:I honestly don't get you Bruindane. I suppose if you are a 'Wolf you'll be found out eventually, but frankly I'm finding less reasons to consider you a Villager by the minute. I don't know. Maybe I'm just wasting my energy on this right now. Probably am. At any rate, I want to hear what Selrahc has to say in his defense, because even though I have my own reasons to suspect him they're rather frail, in my opinion. In that sense, I don't find that voting for him would make my vote "matter" any more than it would if I voted for, say, Gold Ergo Sum.
@ Roland, I think we can agree that we each other's posts befuddling.
My methodology involves analyzing votes cast, so they are important to me. There are 16 hours left, I might change my vote again, but at least there will be trail of behavior that I find informative in others.
Selrahc Wrote:Just on the general baner discussion.
I'm thinking the baner should never protect themselves. With the void wolf in play, the wolves would be able to void and kill the baner in a single night, and with the seer gone they have no reason not to do that. Until the void wolf is lynched the baner is far better off protecting other people.
It's not that simple, becaues if the baner never protects himself then the wolves increase their chances of a successful kill by targeting two different players with kill and voider. I'm trying to find the Nash-equilibrium at the moment, it's surprisingly complicated though. When I do, I'll publish the baner's Nash-equilibrium strategy, which is of help to the baner but, surprisingly, of no help to the wolves (because the baner following the strategy leaves the wolves' choices as equivalent, and if he doesn't follow it then I haven't enlightened them in any way as to how he plans to differ from it). I won't publish my working, because it would reveal the wolves' optimal strategy.
If anyone else honestly thinks they can do it then feel free to either outrace me to it or confirm my result. If you think it's straightforward though you probably don't know what you're doing.
Selrahc Wrote:then that means that anyone who claims fool is innocent or a wolf.
Wow! That's good to know, that cuts out those other possibilities... um... er... maybe secret possessed role fool claims? I know what you actually meant in context (essentially that at most one innocent will claim fool) but this was too funny to let slide
Roland Wrote:Because at least a few people chimed in that novice's play in WW1 was exemplary, and thus they trusted him to be an impartial person (if he's a Villager, of course), and the fact that I didn't (and still don't) trust the alternative (Rowain). No one else made a serious run for Mayor, or at least no one else got any traction for their bids, so it was really a choice between Rowain and novice, and between the two I trust novice more. You could call it the lesser of two evils, if you wanted, because I don't have any first-hand experience with novice, but I do with Rowain. Maybe I'm letting my experience in WW2 color my judgment here, but the fact that Rowain's sticking to the same strategy as before is enough for me not to trust him - although that alone is, as I've stated, too meta for me to want to lynch him over. So, that left novice, and I still feel comfortable enough with that vote. I don't think the 'Wolves wanted Mayor, but of course I've never been a 'Wolf so my experience on that end is very limited.
Bruindane Wrote:@ Roland, I think we can agree that we each other's posts befuddling.
My methodology involves analyzing votes cast, so they are important to me. There are 16 hours left, I might change my vote again, but at least there will be trail of behavior that I find informative in others.
Alright, I suppose we can agree to that.
As for your methodology, I agree that analyzing votes is important. I tend to try for a foundation based on exactly that, and supplement it with post content, style, etc. Basically, a hybrid, if you will - I try to look at all factors, and come to a conclusion based upon them (although, admittedly, this can be more difficult than simply playing the numbers by voting results; certainly more tedious). I'm also not one to jump on anyone early, preferring to take as much time as is available to weigh in and see how things progress before deciding where to put my vote. I don't tend to like moving my vote around, despite my reputation from the last game, so I tend to take awhile to vote.
To each their own, and all that. I have no problem with your goals. It was just a curiosity, but I appreciate you taking the time to explain a bit.
Well, this post contains my reasons to be voting to lynch Selrahc. I'll try to explain them as best as I can. I'm pretty tired right now, so I apologize early for any mistakes in spelling and comprehension.
My suspicions against Selrahc are mostly based in some contradictions that I've found in his posts. I cannot deny, though, that the fact that Selrahc is an experienced Mafia player, an active poster in this community and a very smart guy contributed to my conclusion. It's a metagame thing, but I cannot avoid it.
So, on to the post analysis:
Selrahc Wrote:
The sign above the shop said scribe.
And sure, there was a lot of copying down involved.
Selrahc however, knew that this was the tip of the iceberg. He was without a doubt the most important person in the entire town, despite the bare grudging acceptance that they all seemed to give him.
Brainwork was not accepted as important in the village. The view across the rest of the village was that the important thing was getting the horses milked, or the shop swept or whatever it was these people actually did. They couldn't see the importance of paperwork.
And so he was forced to step in. He was a lawyer. An accountant. A general mental dogsbody, keeping track of the variables in the village.
It was so important. He'd seen already a dozen conflicts over land and jobs that had been easily defused by his records where once they would have resulted in long running feuds and public brawling.
And it was even more important now. Without his records the heart rending task of identifying the bodies from the recent tragedy would have been even more difficult.
Basically, he was running the town. He was the administration, the legal system, the primary means of contact to the outside world, and the property surveyor.
And despite all this they just didn't get it. They thought he just wrote letters, and spent all his day practising the curly bits on the words. They looked down on him.
Pen Pusher. Scribbler. Write-slave. Others besides.
Well neven in this time of crisis he could see opportunity. When the new mayor was elected he'd push as many of his duties as he could onto that unlucky chump. See how he liked it. Maybe Selrahc could get some recognition around here.
And if Selrahc was really lucky he could get enough free time to finally get back to the assignment that the Guild of Scriveners had posted him here for in the first place.
Meiz MJW
Obviously subject to change.
I'm really hoping these three votes don't cause MJW to crack and reveal himself to the thread. Or enact one of his theories that a villager under pressure should lie his arse off to avoid a lynch.
This is Selrahc first post. Important thing to add is that he voted against MJW without giving any proper reasoning (bear in mind that the MJW bandwagon was already forming, albeit being in the early stages, so it was a safe vote already).
Another thing that, while being as circunstancial as you can get, crosses my mind is the amount of effort that Selrahc gave to his roleplay. Selrahc seems to be a very active member of the community and I cannot understand why he's lacking participation in this game. Why would you post a story that detailed and then dissappear after that. Maybe he had that story written already, so he just posted it. I don't know. But it certainly add to the strange feeling I have towards Selrahc in this game.
Selrahc Wrote:I'm still liking my early day snap mayor/lynch votes. I'm also liking that we're getting a few different bandwagons going.
Also, just a metagame request for both the day and night kills for the first two days. Let's try and keep them away from targeting new people or people who haven't had much of a chance to play. I wasn't a big fan of the decision by the wolves last game to kill Cyneheard night 1, since he'd previously been lynched day 2. I managed to sway us away from night 2 killing Sunrise for similar reasons(which turned out to be a very bad move ).
Basically I'm saying that being killed early isn't fun, so I hope we'll all at least give new players a chance to play.
I'm also kind of annoyed that MJW hasn't fake role claimed. I was kind of hoping he would, because if he had done then it might have actually distracted the wolf voider for a night or two.
So, in his next post, Selrahc keeps his votes, without saying why again. Didn't try to start any kind of discussion, just trying to refer to a previous justification that never existed (for voting against MJW).
"I'm also liking that we're getting a few different bandwagons going".
This is the first of a lot of little "go team village" sentences by Selrahc. He's always supportive to the village's cause, but never post anything interesting to help us. It's just the "go, team, go" kind of stuff. This will keep a constant thing in his posts, as you'll see.
Also to notice is the metagame thing about not lynching newer players. This message alone brings me no suspicions, but it'll matter later.
"I'm also kind of annoyed that MJW hasn't fake role claimed. I was kind of hoping he would, because if he had done then it might have actually distracted the wolf voider for a night or two".
This part is another problem. It's a message with the clear intention of distancing himself from the wolves. But... the argument doesn't make sense. It seems to be just a fast created, without much thought given, directed to the wolf message. What mattered to him was the adressing to the wolves, not the content of the message.
Why I think it doesn't make sense? Well, Selrahc thought MJW was a wolf. If MJW roleclaimed, while being a wolf, he wouldn't be a distraction to the wolf voider, because the wolf voider would know MJW was a wolf. So, Selrahc thought MJW was a villager, it wouldn't make sense otherwise. That would be fine, a lot of people voted MJW not caring if he was a villager or not. But Selrahc will state later that he thought MJW was a wolf, which doesn't make sense.
I know that there can be other explanations about the message. It could make sense if looked through some angles. But I don't see a reason to post this kind of thing, except for trying to distance yourself from the wolves. It adds nothing to the discussion, nor does it validate you vote in any way.
Selrahc Wrote:I'll definitely elaborate.
I don't think it is a contradiction, as such. MJW indicated that if he was a villager, he would fake role claim to stay alive.
In this game, there is a wolf voider role. A villager who fake claims a power role might distract the voider.
If MJW was a villager and followed through on his (IMO dubious) tactic, then there would be some gameplay advantage.
He hasn't role claimed though. Which doesn't really prove anything about his ultimate loyalties one way or another, except for the rather tenuous thread that he never said he would fake role claim if he was a wolf.
Either way, he is still a little vexing to play with. The thing I wanted to happen didn't, but he is probably as likely as anyone to be a wolf and I don't think he would be an asset as a villager. So I'm happy with my vote.
This post doesn't fit with my "Selrahc is a wolf" theory. It's a well thought, well written post. Selrahc posted this after me and MJW claimed that his last post (the one quoted before) didn't make sense.
Selrahc explained himself pretty well. This post shows that he's a smart guy, capable of good arguments. The problem is, he only posted it because someone called him on a previous post. If he is capable of posts like this one, why not post more? All his other posts are very low content regarding the game. It's just the "go team village" messages, metagame stuff and things that could have happened (like MJW claiming a power role). But actual content, just after he was called to answer.
Selrahc later points out (day 2 discussions) that he stated why he voted for MJW in this post. Here's what he said:
"Either way, he is still a little vexing to play with. The thing I wanted to happen didn't, but he is probably as likely as anyone to be a wolf and I don't think he would be an asset as a villager. So I'm happy with my vote".
Notice the "he is probably as likely as anyone to be a wolf" - later Selrahc will claim that he thought MJW was a wolf and that's why he voted for him. Well, if that's why he voted fow MJW, he didn't say it here. And is a bit strange for a villager to forget why he voted for someone. Voting for someone is the most important thing to do as a villager. For the wolves, it's just a problem, a challenge that you need to overcome without making yourself look suspicious. And MJW was perfect for this.
Let's keep in mind that Selrahc voted for MJW in the post number 15, when the game was only starting.
Selrahc Wrote:Being little kids has absolutely nothing to do with it. I'm not suggesting that anyone is going to go off in a huff if they get killed.
Day 1 and Day 2 have much less solid reasoning than any other day. To be killed off on those days, whether by night kill or day kill, is a little irritating.
I think it would be a more pleasant game to play in if those semi-random kills aren't happening to players who haven't played before.
I'm not asking for blanket immunity from suspicion for those players. And if someone does something truly suspicious, they probably deserve to be lynched or night killed.
It's just a suggestion, but I think it is one that makes the game a more pleasant one. If new players are killed before they get a chance to do anything at all it hurts the game.
It was also a suggestion more directed at the wolves than the villagers. Since it looks like a firsttimer isn't going to be lynched today.
This is where the meta stuff about not lynching newer villagers posted before starts to become suspicious. Let's see:
"It was also a suggestion more directed at the wolves than the villagers. Since it looks like a firsttimer isn't going to be lynched today".
Why would you say this? There's absolutely no need. The "don't vote for newer villagers" is an argument for both sides, village and wolves. By reinforcing that the message was directed to the wolves, you don't add a thing to the argument itself. It seems to me that it was an intentional thing. Just another quick reminder that he's playing on the village's side.
Selrahc Wrote:You were a wolf last game. You know I was making the same sort of arguments about our day 1 and day 2 kills then.
This isn't something I've suddenly come up with out of the blue.
I think this is an understandable position to take. But can you think of a different way I could have gotten the message out there to the wolves? Perhaps I should have made the post in the sign up thread so that lurkers could weigh in, and it wasn't getting swept up in the general thread traffic.
This post is an answer to Rowain and Uberfish, that called Selrahc last post (the one quoted before) as a wolfish thing. It's a post with content on it, again only posted after someone threw some suspicions on him. Justifying yourself is not a problem, obviously. But when it's the only thing you do regarding the game, it gets kind of strange.
Selrahc Wrote:Roland, the nature of the game is that everybody is going to get suspected and a lot of the suspicions will be repeated.
Don't get exasperated over it.
And seriously don't start in with the self-flagellation again.
This is another "go team village" kind of post. Interesting to notice is that Selrahc will do the same thing he advised Roland not to do: when we started suspecting him, he instantly got exasperated.
That's why this message becomes suspicious: it's another post with pseudo content. While it's a post directed to help the village, it's not a game post per se (not talking about who could be a wolf, who could be innocent). It's the perfect post for a wolf: it has some content; it's pro-village; it's not related to the game, so it avoid causing any suspicions.
----
This is when day one ends. My impression is that of a player who tried to remain unnoticed, posting only the necessary to avoid suspicions. And there was no game related "good" post: no new theories, no vote explanation... Why? Is the first day that unimportant?
In WW2, before he was given the Devil role, selrahc tried to be the mayor. This shows that he likes to play this game, that he likes to participate. So, why didn't he contribute a little more? Why do just the bare minimum, just voting on the public enemy number one and avoiding everything else? I don't have an answer for this question, unfortunately.
The same behaviour made me suspicious of Bob. The, he proceeded to be lynched and revealed to be the seer. Why does this prove? Nothing much, just that that's the behaviour of someone who is trying to hide something.
----
Selrahc Wrote:Bad luck on getting killed Bob. I was looking forward to seeing the roleplay.
WW1 was won without a seer, so it's not the end of the world. We just need to roll up our sleeves and get on with it.
I don't think that's much of a mystery. If he has the image on his PC then it's a couple of second worth of work in paint to create. And it's clear that he is intending to create a grave stone for every death, meaning he has the image basically ready.
Although... hmmm. The image creation wouldn't take long, but factor in a little time to write up the post, to read Bob's posts and search for a quote, to upload the image...
Maybe you are onto something after all.
Somebody want to volunteer to test run time? I'd be happy to give a random villager name to serve as a control case. Or Bruindane could do it himself, which would probably be the fairest.
"WW1 was won without a seer, so it's not the end of the world. We just need to roll up our sleeves and get on with it".
Another "go team village" post. Of course, there's no problem in trying to cheer your fellow villagers. But even after this post, Selrahc didn't post a thing helping the village. No theories, no content, just defensive posts. So, it starts to look like a pattern, another "let's do it" post backed by nothing.
Selrahc Wrote:So I'm picking up some votes because:
1. I haven't been spamming out my post count quite enough. This is quite intentional. I don't like the atmosphere of "lowest post count is a WOLF!", because it leads to the thread being cluttered up with fairly pointless messages.
I think I basically limited my conversation to relevant topics. Lynch vote/character roleplay. Justify my vote. Bring up a gameplay issue I wanted to discuss. If I hadn't had the thing to discuss, I'd have talked even less.
I'll say it clearly. The post count is the most godawful indicator of wolfishness ever. We have seen that in game 1 and 2. I could have told you all that before we even ran a game anyway.
Fuck the post count.
2. "The MJW vote was too safe"
I explained my reasons for the vote. I think they were clear and logical. Either he was a wolf, or a nuisance, or he could be a helpful wolf distraction by fake claiming. Good enough for my vote. Nobody really contested the reasoning, except MJW himself in a defence that will forever be known as "smokers cure alzheimers", which due to the rather deranged analogy I thought I might not bother to respond to. Nothing better came up.
Jumping from bandwagon to bandwagon like a rabbit on a pogostick isn't my idea of good villager behaviour. Suggesting I'm more wolfy because I gave my reasons and stuck to them is insane.
(Maybe I should be splitting this statement up into multiple posts. Got to keep the post count up after all.)
This is Selrahc response after Uberfish and I voted for him. It's a very agressive response and I don't see why he got so exasperated (especially after he told Roland not to act this way).
I'm not going to comment about his defenses, since I mostly said what I think about it in this post. I'd like to ask every player to read the discussion between me, uberfish and Selrahc in the beggining of day 2. After that, everybody can make their own conclusion about it.
Just another thing to point out:
Selrahc Wrote:I got two votes on me in quick succession. I posted up a defence.
Indignant? Perhaps. I'd call it sensible. It's not in my interest to get hanged.
No contradiction at all.
Multiple bandwagons are good. Only switch when you have a reason to do so.
Since I was happy with my vote for MJW and multiple bandwagons had formed naturally with no help from me, there was no reason to do any switching.
A lot of guff is being talked about "The majority of MJW voters thought he was a villager and were just annoyed at him" That wasn't my reason. I thought there was a good chance he was a wolf.
You mentioned postcount as part of your reason for voting for me. To me that says you are voting based partly on postcount.
And to be honest, your argument here is kind of disingenuous given that you were voting for MNG and then switched.
This is Selrahc's post after the last one I quoted. It's a much more calm response, which makes me wonder why he changed his behaviour so much.
In this post you'll see where Selrahc said that he voted for MJW because he really thought he could be a wolf. I tried to point out that this was not the case based on his posts in day 1.
Selrahc Wrote:I think a lot of the arguments about me are now just assuming I am a wolf, and thus what I do is wolfish.
I don't think there is much point engaging with those arguments. It's all gotten into some rather ephemeral stuff about how much "content" I was posting. I maintain that my vote for MJW was perfectly well explained and reasonable, and I've already said that part of the reason behind the "meta" posts was to try and entice the wolves into wasting a night kill on me.
I think that is basically all I need to say for the defence. I'll leave it there for now... unless someone is going to say something drastically new.
Of the arguments presented today, I think Mardoc's are very optimistic but I'd like to investigate them further by voting for Novice. I also think a mayor wolf could work quite well. If I'd been just a regular wolf I would have continued the mayor campaign in WW2. I only tried to distance myself from it because I'd been made the the devil. Novice could easily be any wolf except the voider.
I'm not going to give a general list of suspects. I don't really have a good one yet. It's day 2. I'm not liking the general push to lynch me, but I can't really say if it is wolfy yet.
With this post Selrahc ended the discussion with Uberfish and me. After that, he mostly disappeared from the thread.
I have to say that I think that a good wolf tactic for the first days, when there isn't much evidence, is just refrain from posting any explanations/defense even when you have people voting to lynch you (if the bandwagon isn't strong enough). After some time of silence, the villagers tend to switch to other targets, while new theories start being made. Since you aren't posting, there's nothing to keep the villager's suspicions on you, so they will go for other targets. So, after some time you get cleared without doing a thing, much like what happened to Pocketbeetle on day 1.
That's what I think Selrahc is doing. I'm probably saying a bunch of nonsense, but it's better if I say this nonsense out loud, so others can show me my mistakes.
These are my reasons to vote for Selrahc. It's really difficult to post this, since the chance that I'm being compeltely blind ans unfair towards Selrahc is pretty big. But that's what I'm thinking right now, so here I am posting it.
Please, think about the things I've written, don't just agree with me because the post is long. While I'm justifying a vote, I'm biased, so all the other players have to look at the case I made with unbiased eyes.
).