[spoilers] Pindicator and Regoarrarr - Bismark of Ethiopia

[regoarrarr]

Well our days of #1 in Food, Prod and GNP may be over but lookie here!



At least we can be #1 in SOMETHING! (until Commodore plays...)

[regoarrarr]

BTW this is the 16th post in the last 3 hours, just in case any of all y'all think you can take me

[pindicator]

So Commodore's ended his turn and we still have our capital, so it can't all be bad news

...right?

Commodore attacked with his chariots first: the C1 chariot won, but the shock chariot lost! He then attacked with his C1 axe at 35% and take a look at what happened:
[spoiler]

Flawless victory!

More good news - Commodore has retreated his CG2 archer back toward BB. Our axe will ahve 68.6% chance to kill it if we want to try -- and I think we want to try! We will not get odds like that once it gets into the city. Plus, I don't see a unit in BB, so unless he is being crafty and moving the whipped unit 1SW into the fog (but not 2SW to cover the archer) then he probably whipped a barracks.

We also have 64.3% odds to kill off his Shock/CR1 axe because our axe won it's battle flawlessly! Or spear can kill the chariot. We could wipe everything out if we win the battles we should.

[/spoiler]

And then there's Coneheads...

We may be able to clean up here as well: attack the shock axe with both our axes, hopefully losing 1 to kill it. Cover the survivor with one spear and then keep the last spear at home. Maybe not worth doing, but I actually feel like there's some hope in this position which is more than I felt last turn

[novice]

At least we can be #1 in SOMETHING! (until Commodore plays...)

The real question is how you're not last in approval rate...

[waterbat]

great reports, guys! Glad to see the tide appears to be turning in our favor. More galleys next then?

Given your assumption that he whipped a barracks (yay for overconfidence!), can he whip again before you reach BB?

[regoarrarr]

I won't lie - the very first thing that I did when I woke up today was refresh CivStats and see if we had any score decreases.

This is great news - I'll take a look here later on today

The real question is how you're not last in approval rate...

Yeah I'm not sure about that either. I bet Commodore is last - he's whipped pretty heavily also

[pindicator]

great reports, guys! Glad to see the tide appears to be turning in our favor. More galleys next then?

Given your assumption that he whipped a barracks (yay for overconfidence!), can he whip again before you reach BB?

I doubt it. We've had our work boat sitting on top of the fish to prevent the city from growing; he probably whipped the barracks because he needs to get the pastured cows in its BFC to give it any kind of productivity. Also, we don't know the hammer count; he could have an archer built by the time we arrive -- he does have a mined plains hill after all.

[regoarrarr]

Okay with Commodore having a turn at bad luck, it was time for us to go on the warpath!

First our axe vs. his fleeing CG2 archer. We figured the 69% odds were better than we'd get against it once it got back to the city



Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh yeah buses! (the plural of bus being buiiiiiiiii obviously )

Then, getting frisky, we attacked his shock axe with our healthy axe in Church Lady, at 64.5% odds



He died without scratching Commodore's axe (real nice)

We decided to move our wounded axe over to the tile 1E of Church Lady.

Oh, what's that you say? There's a Commodorian Chariot on that tile? Oh you mean there WAS a Commodorian chariot on that tile (killed flawlessly by our spear at > 99.9% odds). So we grouped healthy axe, healthy spear and wounded axe on that tile, while leaving our capital guarded by just a warrior and scout . If he wants to spend a turn killing one of them with his wounded shock axe that's fine - it's the only unit of his in range (only one on our ISLAND btw! ), and we'll (try to) kill him next turn.

Over at Coneheads, we ran the odds and figured we had about 88% odds to kill his shock axe with 2 of our axes. Actually though I re-figured and it was more like 21% we kill it with our first axe, 45% we kill it with the 2nd, 17% we get in only 0-1 hits with the first axe and abort, and 7% we lose both axes.

FORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLD!!!! ONCE MORE INTO THE BREACH!!!

First axe lost taking his axe down to 49 HP, and our 2nd axe cleaned up at 90% odds. I had noticed that we were at 23/30 on the GG counter before there, and had we won with the first axe that would have given us 5 XP, at which point I would have strongly considered roading out and attacked his warrior with our spear to get the GG. But we lost.

So I moved our worker back into Coneheads, but then I realized that the 2XP we got for our 2nd axe killing his axe was doubled in the GG counter. We now sit at 27/30, so had we killed the warrior with our spear we would have gotten a GG.

Probably for the best though, as that would have left just one spear in Coneheads against his 2 chariots and while that PROBABLY holds, probably best not to risk it at this point. Instead I went with

I doubt he takes it but you never know.....

I have not ended turn in case he logs in. We'll need to log in in the next 2-3 hours to end turn / finish things

[regoarrarr]

So here's where we stand



A few things to note

* Coneheads front. He has the 2 chariots in the forest and the warrior SW of the corn. We have a spear in Coneheads, another spear building at EOT, and a spear covering our wounded axe 1N of the city. Worker is in the city, with 1 worker turn on a road on the corn. He may move all 3 units onto the corn, in which case we'll smoke him next turn. Other move would be pillage the FP cottage and hold or run away with the chariots

* Galley moved NE towards [strike]Manxsome Foe[/strike]Blues Brothers. I went out and back again with the workboat and there is only 1 tile that was fogged that might contain a reinforcing galley (the tile 2NW of the galley). Though you'd think if he had a galley there he'd have unloaded his units last turn onto the copper, but maybe not

* I did whip the spear in More Cowbell, and with the 3rd ring chop this turn we'll have 17h overflow into our next project (possibly finishing off that worker?)

* The workers are set to camp the 2nd ivory starting next turn and finishing the turn after that. We may want to consider an ivory for horse trade with Cyneheard, perhaps as early as this turn

* I did not whip the settler in Celebrity Jeopardy, though we could if we want. I was holding off waiting for a galley to be ready. I did queue up a galley in Church Lady, as we can't be assured of holding copper through the end of next turn.

* You'll notice Azza's warrior coming up. I declared war on him and immediately offered peace. I didn't want to risk him nosing about so would prefer the guaranteed 10t peace.

We do need to still log in and end turn. I wanted to give Commodore a chance to play and perhaps accept peace. My guess is that even best case he's not going to just accept it since it will pop up before he can look around, but maybe (doubtful but MAYBE) he'll re-propose peace once he surveys the situation.

[regoarrarr]

I was thinking that this is one of the downsides of the CTON format. If we could diplome, we might be able to work something out with Commodore. Specifically, I wouldn't mind trading world maps with Commodore as part of peace (well, a peace where we get back BB), but the game does not allow it.