By the way, I don't think I mentioned this yet outside the stream: We were supposed to get four turns of pacifism bonus in Jingo, not just two. Unfortunately, we got a random spread of Christianity into the city 1-2 turns before the missionary arrived, and then the missionary failed. So we had to build a missionary in the capital, delaying a monastery for 2t and thereby losing 20 beakers, and we only got 2 turns to use pacifism.
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[PB16 SPOILERS] SevenSpirits goes off the deep end and finds Krill
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Democracy is about 7300 adjusted beakers, Rifles are about 12000 adjusted beakers. Democracy is probably the better choice, and then get Astro for galleons and Observatories...FWIW, Emancipation means a cottage goes from 1 commerce to 4 commerce in 15 turns. Maybe then 40 turns down the line Free Speech is worthwhile. Then it's basically all about not getting invaded, and at the same time trying to pry land from Kuro/wetbandit. Attacking west goes into Gasper and Noble, don't want to touch them as they are a roadblock against Gavagai and yuris. East is Goreripper...yeah, not worth it. Only leaves north and south which is effectively the same direction in strategic terms.
We got our 20% engineer roll. Nationalism is due at end of turn now, and then next turn at EOT we can complete Taj.
Mike/Yuris will have had 9 turns in bureaucracy and 4 turns in nationhood (and a further useless 1 turn in anarchy) during which he has nationalism and Taj is available. I think it's probably impossible for him to slowbuild it in that time, but he could potentially whip it. Without bureaucracy, an 8 pop whip is worth 180h. (Or, if he grows this turn, a 9 pop whip could produce 202 hammers. Discounting this possibility for the moment though.) That means he needs to have accumulated 520h over those 12t (the 13th turn doesn't count since he needs the hammers pre-whip). That basically means he needs to have averaged 23 base hammers into Taj over the whole period. Or, if he had a chop, he only needed to average 21 base hammers per turn. Of course, he could have overflow too. Given that he was in a war at the time, and that we also know he didn't whip the capital, I am somewhat skeptical he had much though. So that's the bar he has to meet to coin flip with us. If he can whip it this turn that's an even greater feat. Overall I'm cautiously optimistic. I'd put us at over 50% to get the wonder just based off of the numbers and likely past choices. (E.g., the fact that he accepted anarchy and revolted into nationhood two turns ago hints that he hasn't been going for Taj with maximum possible enthusiasm.) On top of that, I think there's a chance that Yuris wouldn't whip his capital for 8 pop anyway. After all, he doesn't know it was us who got the engineer, he'll only have one turn to notice we got nationalism, and he's been playing his turns in about 10 minutes. After that last time we got a tech delayed a turn due to gold being barely too tight, I decided to run some extra wealth builds everywhere it wasn't terribly inconvenient, to reduce the odds of this kind of thing.
Well there's game over, and then there's game over. We certainly don't have the capabilities to take on all other civs combined. And remember, we are getting about 60cpt from OB agreements, and planning to rely on merchant missions for some burst teching.
Assuming we do get Taj, it will certainly be a dominant position though.
The commerce from OB is less than we could get from Merc, I think? I also don't think that Merchants are 100% necessary to win the game from this position, they just speed it up. That said, caravels work well enough provided no war anyway.
March 26th, 2014, 06:35
(This post was last modified: March 26th, 2014, 06:43 by SevenSpirits.)
Caravels really don't work though. The issue is they can only explore water, which means when they drop off the merchant it's vulnerable to a wardec.
Edit: but yeah, I agree, the open borders are a relatively small issue.
Really? Learn something new everyday. That said, GM bombs aren't entirely necessary IMO. I think that they might speed up the time to Democracy by 15 turns or so if we use two of them on bombs?
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