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(April 6th, 2015, 14:12)Miguelito Wrote: (April 6th, 2015, 14:06)Commodore Wrote: (April 6th, 2015, 13:57)AdrienIer Wrote: I can't think of something else. I'll let you know that a c1 spear with 25% fortifications has a 50/50 chance against a shock knight. Is that right? 11 vs. 8.4 by my read. Civ4 odds are weird.
it's 25% forification + 40% cultural defense. But now I'm going to sim it. Oh, cool, then 11 vs. 10, much closer.
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(April 6th, 2015, 14:15)Commodore Wrote: (April 6th, 2015, 14:12)Miguelito Wrote: (April 6th, 2015, 14:06)Commodore Wrote: (April 6th, 2015, 13:57)AdrienIer Wrote: I can't think of something else. I'll let you know that a c1 spear with 25% fortifications has a 50/50 chance against a shock knight. Is that right? 11 vs. 8.4 by my read. Civ4 odds are weird.
it's 25% forification + 40% cultural defense. But now I'm going to sim it. Oh, cool, then 11 vs. 10, much closer.
I did the sim, and with a C1 promotion it's a neat 11 to 11 (not that I understood fully how these numbers are produced). Good news is that in the sim my spear won against the barb knight 
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Huh. Getting a prince bonus vs. barbs?
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Monarch. (that's why Org's winning :P)
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I used Cyneheard's combat odds spreadheet, but I now realize that I put a 25% terrain modification that wasn't supposed to be there. Therefore it's 68.01% for the knight.
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for reference:
April 6th, 2015, 14:36
(This post was last modified: April 6th, 2015, 14:36 by Miguelito.)
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...and now I see the 25% city barbarian defense. Alright.
Adrien: Can you link the spreadsheet for next time?
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Sure, are you using office or word ? I've got the office one so if you're not you should ask Old Harry who was kind enough to send me the file.
April 6th, 2015, 16:40
(This post was last modified: April 6th, 2015, 16:41 by Miguelito.)
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Quote:Sure, are you using office or word ? I've got the office one so if you're not you should ask Old Harry who was kind enough to send me the file.
Either is fine.
Played the turn. Pulled back from Hulk, nothing to gain there. Maybe he moves into forking position next turn, where we could try to hit him.
Never thought so much about a civ turn. Results will still be horrible 
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Here is the spreadsheet, it's a bit complicated but that's only because of the complexity of the civ 4 combat system.
I get what you mean, but if someone can whip 18 knights out of thin air in a few turns while you're making a gambit specifically avoiding military techs you're doomed pretty much whatever you do. I don't think we should concede right now, leave Mardoc a chance to save the day etc... Actually I think that the biggest threat to THH right now is AlHazard if he eats through our west and gets to knights and/or pikes soon enough to keep his conquests.
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