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Are you, in fact, a pregnant lady who lives in the apartment next door to Superdeath's parents? - Commodore |
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WW17 - A Game of Thrones
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Eh, I could still see Lewwyn as being a serial killer rather than a serial vigilante. (would make sense if two alternating SKs)
As for the last 2 wolves, I think Jkaen has sufficiently convinced me that Mardoc is not a wolf. Therefore I think the last to wolves are Qgqqqq and, quite possibly, Sareln
I may be preaching to the choir here, but the main reason I'm voting for Sareln is the way the non-TT votes were split between me and Coco yesterday. If the scum were trying to save TT, they made a very half-hearted effort. If you're scum voting for me, why not switch to Coco? Not that hard to justify. Or at least switch to TT, for some minor cred, even if you're late to the party. And the only unknown voting for Coco was Mardoc, who has a double vote and could have teamed up with TT to lynch me. So the only explanation that really makes sense to me is that at least one of the scum had already jumped on, and was sitting on TT. Once on the wagon, there was no credible way to hop off, and that would be risky anyway.
The other explanation, that I was clinging to earlier, is that Coco is scum and the scum were trying to bus him instead. But that is a bit of a stretch, and it looks like we will see Coco flip soon enough, anyway. If Coco flips innocent, then the scum were definitely not trying to save TT, and so we're on the right track now. And paradoxically, if Coco flips scum, then I will probably also be less inclined to suspect the people voting for me yesterday. Think about it: if both TT-scum and Coco-scum are on the block, what better play than to lynch Coco, and use his flip to clear TT? So really, all roads lead me to the conclusion that the remaining scum must either be Mardoc, or among the TT voters. And I have dismissed Mardoc, for now. Here's the final tally from yesterday again: Twinkletoes (5) - Azza Pindicator Sareln Tasunke Zakalwe Coco (4*) - Mardoc Thestick TT Zakalwe (3) - Jkaen Lewwyn Qgqqqq Thestick (1) - Rowain Not voting - Coco Yeah, I could see all of Jkaen, Lewwyn, Qgqqqq , and Coco as innocent, really. So that doesn't leave a lot of options.
If you know what I mean.
(November 23rd, 2012, 05:34)zakalwe Wrote:(November 23rd, 2012, 05:04)Jkaen Wrote: Sorry when you say other scum do you mean dual factions or the TT was bussed? Lewwyn's role claim seals the deal for me as far as declaring him town is concerned. Hasn't been playing a great game, but it all adds up to being village. Claiming responsibility for Brick and Rowain's kills makes sense, since he was on them and they were plausible mislynch targets for scum. Leaning fairly heavily village on pindicator and Zak for the case on TT, but cant rule out the possibility of a bus so I'm not willing to declare them completely innocent just yet. Jkaen's a bit of an enigma to me. He seems like he's village, but I can't remember him actually doing anything that really stands out as being village. I still have no idea what to make of Tasunke. I want to give him credit for being on TT for ages, but at the same time I feel like he's just crazy enough to pull such a stunt as scum. I guess I'll strip it back and lean innocent since it's a simpler explanation. Sareln, I don't have any read on him at all. The two things I remember him doing is colouring the vote tallies, which seems like an easy way for scum to blend in without giving much himself, and creating an elaborate meta argument, again making it look like he's contributing more than he is. Very slight scum lean. I've been leaning innocent on Mardoc, but that's been solely for meta reasoning about his double vote and so I feel like my perception could have been clouded. His voting record hasn't been great, and I don't like that he's ditching independent thought for his voting today on the one player I'd be confident of declaring village. I'll change my vote to Mardoc, and see if I can wake up early enough to observe the deadline tomorrow morning.
Zak-
Do you guess 2 scum left on the traitor team? That's my guess, but i don't trust my experience to be sure of setup numbers. Guess we'll know pretty soon if we've had one traitor dealing with an absent coco or a pair still working together
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Wow Lewwyn, just wow. The way my luck goes, my wild (somewhat tipsy) speculation is taken as the gospel with which to mislynch me. Glee  FWIW, and I don't think it's worth much, my name is Brienne of Tarth. I'm a plain villager/loyalist. In my flavor there's a line that says that I won't have anything to do with either traitors or bandits. Notice kindly the plurals on both of those. I don't actually know who this character is, but as I may be reading the later books at some point, so I am avoiding the wiki. This comes at pretty much the best time to lynch me since I've traveled to visit my girlfriend's family and don't have complete control over my own schedule, so I'll try to make the most of what little time I have. I think I have to accept at this point that I'm probably pretty dead, since the way my schedule lines up with the pause looked like this: (Begin Pause) ------------------------------------------------(Thanksgiving)(Sleep)(End Pause)(Lewwyn Claims)------------------------------(Wake)---(Lynch). We have remaining: Azza Zakalwe Tasunke Sareln Lewwyn - claimed every-other Vig, 1 (Brick)/3 (Rowain)/5 etc. Qgqqqq Coco Jkaen Pindicator Mardoc - double voter, Eddard Stark Zakalwe, Lewwyn, Qgqqqq, Pindicator, Mardoc all have thoughts and statements that have made impressions in my mind. On flip side of that, JKaen, Coco, Tasunke, and Azza have not. Looking at counts, Coco simply isn't playing. I hope he's a wolf because losing another villager would be rough on our numbers. I know that doesn't sound particularly fair to the other 3: JKaen, Tasunke, and Azza; especially since they all have higher post counts than myself (Azza is tied, let's assume he has more QT posts than me), but at a certain point, number of posts fails as an indicator and I have to fall back on how each of you feels. C'est la vie. I really can't quite get past how far off his baseline Tasunke is. Perhaps this has finally been the game where he's acclimated to the rest of us, or perhaps it's because he has finally drawn scum. I doubt we can actually distinguish authoritatively between those two situations without a lynch though. Maybe Zak's right and TT did get bussed; but I know that if he did, I wasn't the one who did the bussing. Tasunke ---- Afterthought, if you still lynch me, when I turn up innocent, you need to look long and hard at the village leaders. That would be Zakalwe and Lewwyn. They're in agreement now and it's going to get me killed, watch the blame game when I flip innocent. ---- And now I'm pretty out of time, must go be social now. Good luck village!
Zak-
Whats with that? You make it sound like time is already up. I was thinking during work that figuring backwards who was scum worked pretty well last game, so why not do that here? The oerson on the bottom of that list (ie the one that had the least impression of towny-ness) was Tasunke. But wasnt he voting for TT well before you or i pushed him? He shows fourth on the vote list though which meand he jumped off and came back if that was the case. Sareln i have in the murky middle, but he's made more good points than others. So i would rather see Tasunke go at this point. Also a note on all these name-claims. Zak, youre analysis is accurate as far as lining up names to loyal/nonloyal parties, but you forget that uberfish said there will be safe names for scum to claim. Brienne could be a safe name but i agree with the reasoning in sareln's post. Likewise Dondarion could be a safe claim for a SK, but the rational behind Lewwyn's kills is good apart from that. I'm trying to think of a differrnt possibilty for double voting than Eddard Stark as ear of the King. Petyr Baelish perhaps? Well, if i dodnt have a faint suspicion Tasunke was the Barlysh i'd like that. Shouldnt fall in love with my own theories like that. Bah Lunch is o'er. Hope we pick a good one by the deadline
sigh. of all the realistic candidates, i like tasunke the least.
Erebus in the Balance - a FFH Modmod based around balancing and polishing FFH for streamlined competitive play.
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