Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[Roland]

I have no problem if people see me as a villager and then support me. But the way he linked himself to me didn't feel natural at all. Why is he trying so hard to get us two linked?

I honestly think you're reading too much into novice's comment here. I understand the point you're attempting to make, I just don't think it's that solid. It's fairly circumstantial and rather presumptive. You're free to disagree, of course, but I still say there are better targets out there.

I think the linkage was not that blatant as you say, and I wonder if anyone would have paid much attention to it unless I had pointed it out. I think people would have paid attention only once one of us would possibly be killed later on.

I saw the comment. I didn't read anything suspicious about it. I mean, really, I think it's pretty damn obvious why he made the comment: Mardoc, someone he was accusing not too long before the post you're up in arms about, was accusing him and yourself. If anything, that's all the more reason to distance himself from you, at least with regards to defending against Meiz, because otherwise it makes him look suspicious to Mardoc, and anyone who buys his outlandish theory. He was specifically addressing Mardoc with that comment, not you - why take it so personal, like he's ridden with the Black Plague and you're afraid of catching it? Are you honestly that worried that someone's going to nail you because he associated himself with you?

You're making the assumption that novice is a 'Wolf primarily on the fact that he openly chose to associate with you, in defense against another poster. I guarantee you if not for Mardoc trying to tie you together - MARDOC, not novice - he never would have brought you into it except to say "You know what, Meiz had some good points about Selrahc. I'm going to vote for him." Seriously, are we not supposed to agree with anything anyone says now because it makes us suspicious for tying ourselves to someone else? I get that you're not accusing him for agreeing with you, but you're completely ignoring the most obvious Villager-based reason for him to say what he did! It's like you have blinders to seeing anything but the idea that such a case would be 'Wolfish.

It's not. Actually I was also quite sure that MJW was a villager. So as a separate thing this does not mean that much, but when added to my other points, it adds up. I say again, it was in wolves best interests to let MJW live, _if_ Cull is a villager. I don't know if he is, but I think it's quite likely. So I do view MJW defenders with suspicion, as long as Cull isn't identified as a wolf.

Ok, so now you think he's a 'Wolf because you think Cull's a Villager. Fine, but keep in mind the whole reason most of us were trying to lynch Cull was because he was so quiet, and everyone thought pocketbeetle would be more valuable! Now here we are, the very next Day, and pocketbeetle is on the block instead, with Cull not even on the board! Therefore, the most logical explanation (which I believe is exactly what novice posted) is that he's moved from one inactive poster to another - and believe me, I'm tempted as well for the same reason. Apparently numerous other people want to see pocketbeetle hang, too, whatever their reasons may be.

It just strongly looks like you took an innocuous comment and turned it into a grand 'Wolf theory - not very different from Mardoc, IMHO, just much smaller in scope.

We have quite a lot of new players, who might fall to this trick if they are the Baner. So I don't see these comments pointless, if a wolf would say them. If they come from a villager, I agree that they are pointless.

Well, as I said they're meaningless posts, IMHO. Yeah, I suppose a 'Wolf could waste the effort attempting to deceive the Baner into protecting someone other than their actual target, but really with the odds we have right now I don't think they need any help in doing that. Besides, you have to have a truly compelling reason to pray for someone specific to get protection, otherwise it just looks fishy outright.

[Roland]

I think I have a more general comment to make: The sorts of mischeif that people are accusing the wolves of are often strategies far more complex and involved than anyone actually playing a wolf would follow. A lot of people's wolf-strategy is to just act like a villager and do their best to pretend they don't know who the wolves are at all. A large proportion of the sorts of things people are being accused of simply don't apply to anyone following that strategy.

This. Irgy put it better than I possibly could - and he was a 'Wolf, and did this beautifully, in WW2.

It's easier to come up with these grandiose theories now, when we have so little to go on. However, it's also that much less likely that they're in any way accurate. As time goes on, we'll have far more pieces to work with, and can then make a more grandiose puzzle. For now, though, it's better to think smaller. Yes, you're bound to catch a 'Wolf sooner or later with a wide enough net, but how many innocents are you willing to lynch in pursuit of that? How many innocents will it take before you abandon your theory, regardless of whether you end up catching a 'Wolf with it?

[Meiz]

If I were a wolf, would I really draw attention to myself by
a) Campaigning for Mayor
b) Cast the deciding vote in the final minute of day 1 to lynch one villager (or wolf) over another?

a) I know I originally thought that a wolf mayor would be a bad idea. This was based on an idea that it was begging to be scanned by seer. Now that I think of it, with no-pm settings there's a likely chance that the seer would have had to expose himself to get the info out (assuming that he would have scanned you as a wolf). Trading one normal wolf for the seer is a good deal.

b) There were compelling reasons against Cull (inactivity) over MJW (likely villager in many opinions). There would be no problem on justifying your swing.

[Meiz]

Btw. I admit that I might be reading too much from the comment made by novice. For me it's a toss-up between novice and Sehlrac at the moment. I'm not set on stone for either of them, despite what it might look like

[Meiz]

I'm terribly sorry for the spamming, but since the edits are not allowed...

I really get a vibe of "wolf would never do that!" from you, novice

[scooter]

Obviously my Irgy vote gained no traction, so I'm going to take a stab at ranking my suspicion level for the 3 bandwagons, as clearly I need to join one of the three to make my vote count:

1. Pocketbeetle - Seems to be purposely not posting whatsoever. Feels like a WW just trying to ride out the suspicion. Hard to get a read on it.

2. Selrahc - just feels off... as if he's playing the same as last game. Not sold on this, but I"m not really sold on PB either.

3. novice - I'm honestly not understanding why he's on this list. To me, the case against him is the weakest.

I'm good with voting for #1 or #2, but not #3. Therefore, I'll vote for Pocketbeetle, though I'm willing to swap to Selrahc if the status quo changes in the next 9 1/2 hours. As fair warning, I won't be around tons between now and then (things will be very hectic tomorrow morning), so if I don't make it on here between now and then, I am sorry.

[Roland]

a) I know I originally thought that a wolf mayor would be a bad idea. This was based on an idea that it was begging to be scanned by seer. Now that I think of it, with no-pm settings there's a likely chance that the seer would have had to expose himself to get the info out (assuming that he would have scanned you as a wolf). Trading one normal wolf for the seer is a good deal.

In what way do we trade a Seer for a 'Wolf? Nothing says the Seer has to come out on Day 2 with his scry. The best plan, IMHO, would be to stay active enough that you're not likely to be targeted to be eaten, keep just enough suspicion upon yourself to give the 'Wolves more reason not to eat you, and compile a list of as many people as you feel comfortable with - preferably 3 - 4, if at all possible. Then blow the lid off things once you feel comfortable doing so. Of course, this is more difficult in a game with a Fool, but it can be mitigated to a certain extent ahead of time by publicly voting on who should be scried, if it's that much of a concern.

This is all moot, though, as our Seer unfortunately bit the dust (and I didn't even pick up on him being the Seer at all; guess I'd make a terrible Baner too, huh?) on the first Night.

b) There were compelling reasons against Cull (inactivity) over MJW (likely villager in many opinions). There would be no problem on justifying your swing.

I voted for Cull, and defended MJW to an extent. Serdoa's hungering to lynch me off, and I'm sure Rowain isn't far behind him on that front. Hell, I'd wager half the Village is thinking about lynching me - even if it's only to shut me up (again) - and yet I don't see you going after me at all. As far as I can see, you're biggest issue with novice is that he tied himself to you directly, which was in direct response to Mardoc doing that. He was doing so to thumb his nose at Mardoc. How do I know? Because I'd do the same damn thing, honestly.

Now, I'm personally leaning towards Selrahc. It's not so much about Ichabod's post, because as Lewwyn said it's rather circumstantial. No, for me it's because he's acting almost exactly like he did in WW2, when he was the Devil. Granted, he's obviously not the Devil here, and I'd be amazed if he turns out to be the Void Wolf, but it's still rather suspicious to me that he hasn't posited a single solid defense against the more meaningful accusations against him. I do believe that he stated his reasons for lynching MJW pretty plainly, even if I also agree with Ichabod that he does look like he backtracked just a tiny bit - but that may be stretching too far. Also, keep in mind that Lewwyn was the one who pushed the hardest for MJW's lynching - yet we don't see him on the block today. Perhaps because he's actively contributing to the conversation? I think that bothers me most of all. If Selrahc is as experienced as we all believe him to be, and if he truly has the Village's best interests in mind, why has he contributed so little to the conversation? I understand there's not much to go on with regards to making meaningful, informed accusations, but still - you can still discuss the merits of other people's thoughts.

I'm still hesitant to vote, in all honesty. 1) I'm worried my bias against pocketbeetle is little more than just that - bias, not to mention the only other thing I have against him is his inactivity, which does line up with his overall forum activity. I'd hate to lynch him on the basis that he's simply not around, especially if we find out he's a Villager. 2) My feelings against Selrahc don't feel very strong to me. It feels too circumstantial to make it really stick. Still, I can't shake the feelings I have - and part of this game is going on gut feeling, yes?

So, honestly, I'm at a loss. If I had to choose one right now, it'd be Selrahc, simply because pocketbeetle deserves some forgiveness for simply not being around. I'm just not sold enough on it to be clamoring for others to join me, and no one else I want to offer up is even in the running, so I might as well go with someone I have some sort of feeling about. I can't play it safe all game, right? No risk, no reward.

Anyway, I didn't want to get much closer to the end without posting my thoughts on the rest of the candidates. I just wish I had more to go on, but they're both so damned quiet it's hard to pin anything down!

[Roland]

Obviously my Irgy vote gained no traction, so I'm going to take a stab at ranking my suspicion level for the 3 bandwagons, as clearly I need to join one of the three to make my vote count:

I'd wager you'll get another chance before this game is over. I appreciate your willingness to branch out, at least.

1. Pocketbeetle - Seems to be purposely not posting whatsoever. Feels like a WW just trying to ride out the suspicion. Hard to get a read on it.

For what it's worth, his only other activity on the whole forum was yesterday (the 16th) in his PBEM thread (if I have that right). So, to me, he legitimately appears to be too busy to contribute. Now, that doesn't change the idea that he could be a 'Wolf, just that it doesn't appear to be related solely to this game. That more than anything else makes me hesitant to vote him off.

2. Selrahc - just feels off... as if he's playing the same as last game. Not sold on this, but I"m not really sold on PB either.[quote=scooter]

Glad I'm not the only one who feels this way, and you were on the 'Wolf team with him last time, so I trust your judgment on him better than my own.

[quote=scooter] 3. novice - I'm honestly not understanding why he's on this list. To me, the case against him is the weakest.

Holy shit scooter, I think the apocalypse is coming. We're agreeing ENTIRELY too much! Quick, say something 'Wolfish so I can accuse you of it, and then you can call me a liar!

In all seriousness, though, I do find myself agreeing with more of what you say than I ever would have expected. Either you've completely changed your game around from last time to be a better 'Wolf, or you're finally on the same team as me. Either way, it's refreshing to see what you have to offer, and also amusing to see us finally agreeing for a change. I'm sure the humor of the situation is not lost on you, either.

I'm good with voting for #1 or #2, but not #3. Therefore, I'll vote for Pocketbeetle, though I'm willing to swap to Selrahc if the status quo changes in the next 9 1/2 hours. As fair warning, I won't be around tons between now and then (things will be very hectic tomorrow morning), so if I don't make it on here between now and then, I am sorry.

Well, I won't tell you who to vote for, but between pocketbeetle and Selrahc I'm leaning towards Selrahc. Maybe we'll have more to go on in the ensuing 9 hours? Hopefully. We'll see, one way or another.

[Meiz]

I voted for Cull, and defended MJW to an extent. Serdoa's hungering to lynch me off, and I'm sure Rowain isn't far behind him on that front. Hell, I'd wager half the Village is thinking about lynching me - even if it's only to shut me up (again) - and yet I don't see you going after me at all. As far as I can see, you're biggest issue with novice is that he tied himself to you directly, which was in direct response to Mardoc doing that. He was doing so to thumb his nose at Mardoc. How do I know? Because I'd do the same damn thing, honestly.

I don't have anything big against novice, just small bits and peaces (I have quite a list of bits and pieces for several people). When I add these pieces together, the summary makes novice a valid candidate for me. So I'm not thinking about lynching you just because you defended MJW a bit.

For pocketbeetle, this is the only reason why I'm not voting against him:

not to mention the only other thing I have against him is his inactivity, which does line up with his overall forum activity. I'd hate to lynch him on the basis that he's simply not around, especially if we find out he's a Villager.

So, honestly, I'm at a loss. If I had to choose one right now, it'd be Selrahc, simply because pocketbeetle deserves some forgiveness for simply not being around.

I think he deserves a chance to really participate, because at the moment I have no reading at all for him. Just his inactivity. I explained earlier what my criteria would be for the day 2. I can always return for no-posters later.

[Sandover]

I still want novice dead. Just saying.