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I guess the main reason I think it won't be that simple is that I disagree that the northern fleet is mostly frigates. I think he has roughly 8 frigates and 10 caravels based on his upgrades, and my best guess is that 6 of the frigates are up north but also 8+ of the caravels. If he simply keeps his caravels in front of the frigates there is nothing I can do but trade with them while the ironclad kills one ship per turn. If he really has only frigates, the ironclad, and one or two caravels up there I think this will work, but I really doubt he made that big a mistake.
PS, I am listening to the wonderful History of England podcast, which just got to the events of 1588, and I just realized our navy is led by Santa Cruz and facing off against an English fleet let by Francis Drake. Obviously I have to rename all my ships after ones from the Spanish Armada  . Or I could be mischievous and take the English ship names instead. Lurkers, vote on your phones now  .
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I think you are seeing shadows, no way all his upgraded fleet is in the north. My best guess would be 10 ships in the North, maybe a few more back by his cities.
He has 8 cities, 6 which we have eyes on. My best guess is his capital is the one in the fog directly west of WotW. This means he had 1 remaining city, just south of Big Brother and it is probably fairly new since it is farthest from his capital by land. Three cities are most likely city states, so he built 4 settlers and expanded south first, so his older cities are the southern ones. No way he could have built that many ships plus what he has in the south, while building harbors, lighthouse, settlers, and traders is every city. He would have his capital, an island city state (Big Brother) with 1 mine and a jungle hill forest tile, and the unknown city build a huge navy. He doesn't have any additional production bonuses. No, his fleet in the north is not as big as you think.
May 14th, 2021, 13:06
(This post was last modified: May 14th, 2021, 14:49 by ljubljana.)
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Turn 129 - Phoenicia
Woden's plan it is, then:
It looks like Civ6 doesn't let you rename units unless they have at least two promotions, ruining my roleplay dreams. But I do have exactly one such ship, so I choose the most high-impact name. Let my meaningless cutsey RP gesture be one not of surrender by accepting our role as the Armada but of defiance by taking the English ship names. And we do have something we want revenge for, after all .
I decided to put our flagship on the front lines as both an anchor and a lure. It can absorb a ton of frigate shots with that Reinforced Hull promotion, and, if we're lucky, I can use it to draw the ironclad to where I want it to be (on the west, fighting the Revenge) instead of where it should be (in the north, boxing us in and protecting the frigates). I would gladly trade Sir Francis Drake's appropriated flagship for the twin prizes of a) not having my other ships get shelled this turn and b) getting to swoop in and kill 4-5 frigates next turn.
The other important detail in this screenshot is that my bireme in the far south has visual confirmation of a caravel down there. That makes me feel quite a bit better about this whole plan. Woden, if the southern fleet swoops north to trap me, is there any chance your ships, outdated though they are, can buy me a turn or two as meatshields until you have caravels and/or I have broken out in the north? I am very scared of the whole southern fleet coming up and surrounding me - they will be able to attack me in just 3 turns unless I can escape to the north.
edit: It's not in this screenie, but I did barely remember to accept China's DoF extension before passing the turn. I don't know why they felt it necessary to change their mind on that given that we are clearly in no position to do them one iota of harm, but I sure am glad they did. Although, woah, holy crap, just look at suboptimal's milpower. At least we aren't facing down the wrath of CMF right now, not that the wrath of TAD is all that much better . But yeah, it looks like the tide of that war has turned, as we predicted, and we'd be in an amazing position right now if only we could be attacking China instead of TAD.
May 14th, 2021, 15:51
(This post was last modified: May 14th, 2021, 15:53 by Woden.)
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One thing to remember is that TAD can't see what you can. The only ships he can see if the Quad in the North, your Admiral, and the Brieme in the south. He will move with caution, especially if he doesn't find your ships...who would ever think to abandon one front to focus on the other 
As for the DoF with China, good. Probably rejected it so they can discuss among themselves. Suboptimal accepted my DoF last turn but I forgot to check if he has Civil Service. He does have 1 trade route to Odin, so a research alliance might be handing. CMF has 3 to Odin and giving me 12  per turn!
May 14th, 2021, 16:02
(This post was last modified: May 14th, 2021, 16:18 by ljubljana.)
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I would be hopeful that he won't scout my deploy, but that lone caravel is probably going to unless I get really lucky, especially since I rather carelessly moved my admiral to a place where he will have to scout me in order to kill it. Once TAD sees that I have moved up any of my ships, he will assume that I moved up them all and will know that his southern fleet is safe to advance.
I honestly wonder if TAD might just go for Runic anyways next turn and ignore my invitation to engage, though, especially if his northern fleet is on the small side. That could be the best of both worlds for me, and if he does that I'll probably just inch my ships northward a little more to keep some distance between me and the southern fleet.
I will offer China an economic alliance next turn, btw. I doubt they will accept but I have 3 16gpt routes to them (which will be 4 next turn) and would make a ton of extra cash if they do go for it. That is, assuming they have Civil Service, but how could they not at over 100 cpt?
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I am going to send you 8 niter this turn, do you need any gold?
May 15th, 2021, 13:34
(This post was last modified: May 15th, 2021, 13:35 by ljubljana.)
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A bit of gold (60ish?) would be nice if possible - I need 160 for a frigate upgrade. Not sure how my income is going to change on this interturn, since it depends on how many ships TAD killed and/or cities TAD captured lol, so that's me asking for a bit extra just to be safe.
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(May 15th, 2021, 13:34)ljubljana Wrote: A bit of gold (60ish?) would be nice if possible - I need 160 for a frigate upgrade. Not sure how my income is going to change on this interturn, since it depends on how many ships TAD killed and/or cities TAD captured lol, so that's me asking for a bit extra just to be safe.
I sent 400 and 8 niter, send back what you don't need. Wait until I post to play. TAD is trying to trap you north of WotW and I think you need to push west and go around him. This will prevent you for getting pinched between his northern fleet and southern fleet. It doesn't look like he moved his southern fleet up yet, so you have a turn or 2 to react.
May 15th, 2021, 13:48
(This post was last modified: May 15th, 2021, 13:49 by ljubljana.)
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Gotcha, don't worry, I'm great at holding the turn . I wonder why he didn't move the southern fleet yet? Yeah, my thoughts before seeing his move were essentially that I need to push through whichever direction does not contain the ironclad. If I lost too many ships, though, or if he has more caravels than we though, that's probably going to be impossible though... He also has so many ships that he can easily just move more ships around to replace whatever chinks in his blockade I manage to create this turn...
May 15th, 2021, 14:02
(This post was last modified: May 15th, 2021, 14:03 by Woden.)
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Turn 129-Vikings
I pillage 3 mines for 87  and 290 each...
This brings Cartography just under completion. I switch off of it to get 2 more longboats out next turn and then will complete it with a mine pillage by the northern boat. If they are dispatching a boat to kill the longboat, he should survive anything but a promoted caravel and he may still survive that too. Kaiser did have a frigate by Fort Miln but only did 35 damage to my longboat. If that longboat survives another turn, he will pillage the quarry to speed up Guilds. The longboat at Doing the Honours should survive a city attack and then pillage the lighthouse for more gold before he dies. I figure a single pillage is pretty much worth the longboat and this guy already has 2 under his belt.
Over by the main battlefield...
TAD is trying to trap you north of WotW. You could kill the iron clad if you hit it with all your Frigates and suicide a few caravels but that might leave you exposed. You could sail south around the island but his southern fleet will swing up and hit you. I see 3 options here: (1) kill the ironclad and attack anything you can. (2) push west and try to break out there but not sure if you have enough to break free and move your navy, or (3) retreat southeast towards my cities. I will get Cartograph next turn and upgrade 8ish caravels and then can hit him as moves towards your navy. It would be a turn earlier than I would want since I won't have the oligarchy card running but we still might be able to do some damage to him.
What are your thoughts?
I am leaning towards trying to bring his fleet closer to me...then again, if he brings his southern fleet up, I can hit his back side.
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