Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[uberfish]

If I were a wolf, would I really draw attention to myself by
a) Campaigning for Mayor
b) Cast the deciding vote in the final minute of day 1 to lynch one villager (or wolf) over another?

Just saying that neither of these is much evidence either way. We've covered the WW-mayor debate a few times. The last minute vote for Cull is also not really suspicious, given that you stated you believed MJW to be innocent, and he was.

[Lewwyn]

Honestly, the only inclination I have to lynch fire&ice is because of his hard-to-understand posts, and his initial vote to lynch himself. I can't decide if that was an attempt at throwing suspicion from himself very early, or just a bone-headed move on the part of a Villager. Either he really values himself so little (and, by extension, the Village itself) to want to waste a lynch vote on a Villager, or he is a 'Wolf and was trying to avoid suspicion as it was mounting on him. I'm honestly not sure which, but at this point he almost looks like the best target we have.

What does everyone else think about it?

I like this reasoning. Unfortunately no one ever picked up on it. Or said anything. I'm adding Fire&ice to my suspect list. I'm still lynching pocketbeetle though.

[pocketbeetle]

Okay, read through.

Agree with the argument that making a seer-directed post when you are the seer is a bad idea. Seems to be a common trap that I fell into in WW1 also.
It could also have been pure luck, simply the crossover between Bob's roleplay characted being a detective, and the seer role being a detective in Mafia games.
(Maybe consider players with previous experience in Mafia games? Longshot I know.)

Regarding the current voting, yeah I'm not keen on any of the top three targets.
Me, obviously not, Novice nope, and Selrahc not really.

Let's go for a fourth.
Zakalwe is suggesting Uberfish, several players have suggested Mardoc (although his reasons for switching seemed logical and villagerlike on Day 1), let me offer a suggestion.

[pocketbeetle]

Since Day 1, Rowain has been on a crusade.
To say he regards me as suspicious would be an understatement, he’s on a freaking holy crusade, the Pope, Spanish Inquisitors, the whole package.

Several of you regard me as suspicious and are voting for me. That’s okay, I’ve haven’t contributed much yet, I can understand that.
On Day 1 we had nothing to go on, but now that we’re starting to get information I feel I can get more involved.
Read that sentence again: “On Day 1 we had nothing to go on”.

So why does Rowain mention me virtually everytime he posts, to the extent that I have to use the advanced search feature to merely find a post by Rowain which does not contain my name?
Here are just a few, (and the rest of his posts are mostly lynch tallies):

. Strange considering that 2 of them were very vocal players in previous WW-games (PB had more posts than Cull and that with him killed on day 1 and Cull surviving till the end). Roland did take along time till he posted in WW2 so I will give him the benefit of doubt for now but Pocketbeetle has been far to silent for him.

Another little nitpick: At time of your post i had long switched to Pocketbeetle

I prefer to kill villagers that talk too little (and yes that means you PB ) especially if they are otherwise very talkative. In WW1 you had 24 posts in one day here you have exactly 2.

Is it possible that Selrahc is a wolf again and his request is aimed at people like you to protect some of his young packmates? Like for example Pocketbeetle who was killed early in Game1? or for example Jkaen?

Please people pay attention. With sandovers switch to PB the later has as many votes as Lewwyn.
With Irgy's switch we currently have 7 votes against MJW and 5 against PB and Lewwyn. One of those 3 has been extremly silent besides the fact that he found time to update his FH-thread.

For example I find it quite astonishing that Pocketbeetle after 2 days of silence becomes active right as the Night begins.

It is also interesting that PB didn't find time to contribute during the more than 50 hours of daytime but could post several times once the lynch was in.

IMO we will find 1-2 wolves on the MJW -votees and similar on the Cull-bandwagon.
And of course PB.

As we have to fly without seer now I stick with my vote from yesterday
Pocketbeetle

I wonder. You see PB was really active when he was a villager close to a lynch.
Besides if Cull was an inactivity lynch why not make an inactivity lynch on PB now?

@ Jkaen yes you have it right I'm asking you to help lynch Pocketbeetle today.
Ceterum censeo PB should be lynched

Dear villagers:
Looking at the current lynch count makes me sad. We are far too spread around making it very easy for the wolves.
I come here to ask you to support my idea of lynching Pocketbeetle. I have a theory about some wolves and I would like to test it.
No, I can not guarrantee that he is a wolf - I'm not an omniscient, infailable oracle but imo he is the best target we have.

As a matter of fact i downloaded the picture, transformed it into BMP added the name pocketbeetle saved it transformed it into jpg all in less than 5 minutes.

I mean… WTF?
I’m getting flashbacks to Fire&Ice and WW1.
But at least F&I had a reason then.
Like I said, I don’t have a problems with people suspecting me, it’s a natural part of this game.
What is causing me confusion however, is why Rowain seems so certain about lynching me.

Think back to the first day, how many of you could, with hand on heart, point to a player and say with certainty “that person is a wolf”?
How many of you have stuck with one particular person for most of the game so far? How many of you would be so convinced about the guilt of a player, that they would start a bandwagon and order others to vote in the same way?
In the interests of fairness and keeping this wall of text readable, I’ve spoilered a quick clarification to the above, but it’s not central to my point.

Rowain’s first vote was for everybody’s favourite scapegoat, MJW.
He then switched briefly to Lewwyn, and floated the possibility of our Seer (Bob) and Sandover being lynched.

For those not happy with the MJW-lynch I propose 2 alternates:
1) Bobchillingworth: Not only does he claim to have an extraordinary perception in the case of smel. His voting is also very peculiar:
He does vote novice as Mayor but at the same time he shows clear disrespect towards novice as he votes to lynch MJW! the very same person novice tries to protect.
2) sandover: Also strange voting behaviour. first he votes Lewwyn as Mayor and then he turns 180 degrees and want Lewwyn lynched! additional he wants the current number1 target MJW as Mayor.

Hardly a distinguished track record in my opinion.
But since this post, he has been unwavering in his desire to see me lynched.

His stated reason for voting for me originally was that I was being too silent.
Yet when I then became active and started posting, he said THAT was evidence of wolflike behaviour!

I prefer to kill villagers that talk too little (and yes that means you PB ) especially if they are otherwise very talkative. In WW1 you had 24 posts in one day here you have exactly 2.

Please people pay attention. With sandovers switch to PB the later has as many votes as Lewwyn.
With Irgy's switch we currently have 7 votes against MJW and 5 against PB and Lewwyn. One of those 3 has been extremly silent besides the fact that he found time to update his FH-thread.

For example I find it quite astonishing that Pocketbeetle after 2 days of silence becomes active right as the Night begins.

It is also interesting that PB didn't find time to contribute during the more than 50 hours of daytime but could post several times once the lynch was in.

This guy’s worse than my ex-girlfriend. She could never make her mind up either.

Yet despite this, Rowain is both certain I’m a wolf, and is managing to convince a significant number of the rest of you.
What proof does he have?

In the words of Jkaen:

Hmm, just re-read Rowains post asking for support on PB, and by first reading I thought it infered he would reveal his grand plan should people vote onto Pb before the lynch.
Now reading, it seems I may have misinterpreted that and he is asking us to lynch PB with no explanation why what so ever. I am a bit less comfortable about that.

None.
This is my problem, something is wrong here. Rowain is too certain, he knows something we don’t.
It’s an indisputable fact that he’s not the seer. Is he a genius, capable of identifying wolves from only 10 or so posts?
No, he’s not.

In fact, he’s doing something he himself has said is a bad idea, right in this thread.

You are shoving responsibility onto some one who if he is a villager has no more knowledge than you.

Why is it okay for Rowain to lead a lynch mob, yet bad for a villager to do so? Something that according to him, not even our elected mayor should do?

Looking to my defence, Uberfish actually hit it right on the head with this post:

You mean game 1? PB thought he was the seer then, he might not feel as involved in the game as a regular villager, but he probably would if he was a wolf. That's my reasoning.

Straight truth there.
I’m just a villager. I actually envy the wolves. Working elaborate schemes and making everyone dance to my tune is much more up my street.
But I’m not, so I’ve been a little slow to get involved. To repeat myself, we have little information at the moment, we need to gather more first.

Returning to Rowain.
What things make him wolflike?

1. Low content:
   

   Holy crap, Rowain has 50+ posts. I would've never guessed. He seems to be running pretty below the radar for such activity.

   Don’t be afraid to vote for Rowain just because he’s keeping the lynch tally up to date.
   It involves stating facts, no opinions required, zero risk, ups your post count while appearing useful to the village. It’s a perfect job for a wolf.
   
   
2. He’s causing confusion.
   He’s not analysing. He’s not offering evidence. He’s simply throwing out accusations and promising proof later (something Serdoa can agree with).
   That’s bad behaviour for a villager and something a wolf aims for.
   
   
3. He’s acting exactly like he did in WW2.
   This has already been commented on. His style tends to be low content with lots of smileys ( etc) and jokey comments about “xxx shirt had a wolf print on” etc.
   Let’s face it, it worked last game, he was the last wolf to be found. Why fix something that ain’t broke?
   

What makes him not wolflike?

1. Mayor vote, putting himself up.
   This has already been discussed. Personally I think that in a no PM game, there’s lower risk to a wolf getting himself elected because the seer has to out himself to reveal that information.
   Stick a wolf in as mayor and look for anyone that starts talking about lynching the mayor: great tactic.
   
   
2. Accusationary style.
   From what I’ve read, wolves will try to avoid being directly accountable for a lynch bandwagon; doesn’t look good when that player is revealed as an innocent villager and the wolf has to say “whoops!”.
   But going back to the point above, it’s arguable that he could be playing a high risk strategy.
   The wolves have an excess number than normal games, is trading one wolf for possibly revealing the seer and getting a few of the more well known villagers lynched worth it?
   Could be.
   

Tl;dr

Rowain is just too certain for my liking and I don’t understand why.
I know for a damn fact he has zero proof, and hence I am suspicious of him.
Therefore I am going to vote for him: at best we lynch a bold wolf, at worst we lynch a bad villager.

(And if you do end up lynching me, then you better damn well lynch him the next day or I’m going to be seriously pissed.)
Here’s a list of all his posts.

[novice]

Rowain hasn't given me any villager vibes either, so I'm happy to hive him a whirl.

[Irgy]

Ok, I'm off to bed. With three candidates I'm highly likely to miss a chance to change my vote to something more relevant. I'm not thoroughly sold on Selrahc, but nothing has really pushed me off him either. And the other two candidates I don't like.

Pocketbeetle has been absent, until his big posts just now. Frankly, RL or not, being a wolf makes you more inclined to check in a lot more often, there's no way you'd disappear for a day. As a villager you think you can sneak off and maybe no-one will notice (though no such luck PB ). So I'm not voting for him. I realise that now that I've said it I create an excuse, but that's something to worry about next time this comes up.

Novice has done at least as many things that make him look like a valuable villager as things he's accused of. At the end of the day, a late switch off a confirmed villager is a positive mark. It might be a stunt, sure, but for now it's a positive mark. So I'm not voting for him.

Good luck, hope we've caught one when I wake up in the morning.

[Meiz]

I'm game with that, glad you're back in the game pocketbeetle

Rowain

Flip-flop Flippety-flop

[Rowain]

This guy’s worse than my ex-girlfriend. She could never make her mind up either.

I think I made my mind up quioite clearly. You were silent all days long (while you managed to make nice huge updates on your FFH thread but as soon night falls you post several quick jibs with Roland but no real contant again. Practicall all the time till this post you were contributing nothing at all.

Rowain is too certain,

Nope I'm not. I have explicitly stated that I can be wrong. But I did ask the village to help me in my theory.

Don’t be afraid to vote for Rowain just because he’s keeping the lynch tally up to date.

Absolutly right and another point I have already stated.

(And if you do end up lynching me, then you better damn well lynch him the next day or I’m going to be seriously pissed.)

Yes thats the risk I'm running here. If I'm wrong and you are a villager I'm most likely dead the next day (although that would not help the village).

[Selrahc]

Rowain
The flip flopping damned if you do, damned if you don't approach to PB posting really looks werewolf to me, since an important goal for a werewolf would be to get the lynch, and maintain suspicion on someone.


Everything else I would probably just ascribe to regular tunnel vision. But double-loss scenarios are a hallmark of werewolf play.

[pocketbeetle]

Frankly, RL or not, being a wolf makes you more inclined to check in a lot more often, there's no way you'd disappear for a day.

Funny you say that Irgy.

Oh look!
Instant reply from Rowain!

I think I made my mind up quioite clearly.