WW11 - Civilization

[Catwalk]

I don't think scooter's accusation is particularly wolfish. Cyneheard hasn't been on all day, and it seems to coincide with suspicion drifting past him. If scooter is a wolf, it'd make more sense to stay on Cyneheard's good side and let others accuse him.

[Catwalk]

Catwalk

That vote has been sitting on me for 48h straight now, with no further explanation of it. I find that suspicious in itself, and I'm interested in hearing why you suspect me Selrahc.

Catwalk For the post Ichabod points out (and zak pointed out) - and also for a very questionable defense of Slowcheetah.

I've said my piece about those exchanges. Ichabod and zakalwe seems to accept them, do you remain suspicious of them? As for slowcheetah, I think it's highly relevant when analyzing newbies that you include any prior knowledge you have about them. I've worked closely with slowcheetah in PBEM29g, and he really is a slow cheetah. The don't-hang-newbies policy only goes for day 1, so I consider him fair game now. I do expect him to contribute a decent much, as a bunch of other players have pointed out. He seems to be less of a scaredy cat now, so I will judge him mainly on his play after day 1. If we're both wolves, cuddling this closely would be quite careless. If I'm a wolf and slowcheetah is a villager, I don't see how I'd handle this matter any differently.

[scooter]

I think this is another wolfish statement, this time by Scooter. First he cashes in some town cred on day 1 by defending Cyneheard, and then he has a convenient change of heart, starting to second-guess himself, when a fresh suspect is needed.

For someone who is supposedly so good at this game, that's a ridiculous statement to make. I forgot that everyone is supposed to play like you and never change their minds or evaluate new info.

[Tasunke]

To clarify, first lets assume that CatWalk is innocent.

And everyone knows about my wolf list posts ...

While originally I considered Lewwyn, Mardoc, and Selrahc to all be wolves, the fact that they are all voting for the same person means that either they are overly confident in their cover OR they are not ALL wolves.

We have all seen the posts between Lewwyn and Mardoc. If we are to believe that these posts are truthful and accurate, then Selrahc (under this assumption) would have a high likelihood of being a wolf.

However, if Selrahc is innocent, then there is a good probability that one of the other two are innocent.

Therefore, if you assume all are guilty, if they all keep voting for Catwalk, due to the law of probabilities at least one is likely to be innocent.

The reverse of this is ... if Catwalk hangs and he is innocent, at least one of them is a wolf.

[Tasunke]

However, if Selrahc is innocent, then there is a good probability that one of the other two are guilty.

Fixed.

[Tasunke]

Basically under the assumptions I have asserted, one of the three is likely innocent and one of the three is likely guilty.

However, its still possible (if unlikely) that they are all either guilty or innocent

[Selrahc]

That vote has been sitting on me for 48h straight now, with no further explanation of it. I find that suspicious in itself, and I'm interested in hearing why you suspect me Selrahc.

For the same reasons I suspected you on day 1. Your continued talking hasn't made me less suspicious. Indeed, the sort of control taking that you seem to be attempting looks pretty suspicious.

I fully admit, I've probably gotten myself into the stage where I've convinced myself that you are a wolf to a greater extent than the evidence admits. But to me the way you're trying to boss people around looks like a pretty clumsy attempt to push votes where you want them. Attempting to cast suspicion on people for not voting.. but discussing suspicions.. in a game where discussing suspicions is the game? That looked like an attempt to manufacture conflict.

I mentioned that I wasn't sure where you were going. I was considering whether you were attempting to generate a reaction to gauge players, or if you were just trying to manufacture controversy for the sake of controversy, and maybe get some bandwagons going too. Given your further actions, I think you're trying to manufacture controversy. Which is very very wolfish.

Maybe I've got blinkers on and this is all confirmation bias. But you want to know my thoughts? That's my reasoning for the vote.

[Rowain]

I agree that Rowain seems to be more recting to what's being posted than coming up with things himself (which doesn't fit him).

Everything you do here (and what anybody else does - except MJW) is reacting to what got posted. Afterall just look at your own voluminous posts. 2/3rd of them are usualy quotes = reactions to what beeing posted.

I'd like to hear some thoughts from Rowain and Selrahc.

I have put my thoughts about scooter and my reaction to and what irks me about novice's post out.

@Tasunke since you have used up your power- I 'm curious what was your starting-tech and what was your power named? No need to answer if you think it in anyway dangerous, believe that I would use this info against you or just don't want to speak about it. Its just that I wonder how uberfish named your ability

[Tasunke]

I honestly don't know whether Naming my Starting Tech and Power would help the village more or the wolves more.

I think I'd want to be more certain

[Tasunke]

about which group I was actually helping before revealing such information (accidentally clicked submit post)