WW14 - The Edge of Reason

[Rowain]

I believe Bigger answered this just a few hours ago?

Yes but since then there has been some action. And his last vote is on me not one of his tops. Not to mention that his top-suspects beg the question why would they jump together from Bigger to VM?

That aside I'm not happy that you push sc so clearly in front even before he can finish his part 2.

[Rowain]

Part 2 is coming up. Just figured splitting it up might prevent wall of text.

That was an hour ago. I start to see novice's point.

[slowcheetah]

Second: Whom do you think is a wolf and why.

Wolves: Primary Suspects- Bigger, Pindicator
Secondary Suspects- Waterbat, Rowain, Jkaen
Don't have a clue- Sareln
Seemingly innocent- Molach, Mattimeo, Novice, Zak, TT

Bigger and pindicator were both late switches onto Injera. This smacks of trying to gain town credit. Bigger has also been pretty scattered with his vote today. First of all saying:

I still suspect slowcheetah, but Pin and mattimeo voting for him off the bat make me really not want to lynch him today. hmm.

I dont know what to think of waterbat. Maybe he got stoned last night?

In any case, a Pindicator seems appropriate.

I was going to go after slowcheetah after Pindicator anyway, but he seems to be a more popular choice atm, so I'll switch.

So initially he suspected me but refused to vote for me and instead went for Pindicator? He then switches to me after Pindicator loses a couple of votes. There was still plenty of time left for a switch to me, why switch so early unless you're covering your back?

Bigger's defense of this:

do what now? I posted in night 2 that pindicator, slowcheetah, and waterbat were my top suspects. Pindicator is still my top suspect, and waterbat I suspect much less - but slowcheetah is my #2, and the vote is clearly shaping up to be between me and him, isn't it standard village play to vote for the other suspect when you're on the line? And I don't even have to vote for someone I think is innocent here, I am fairly certain slowcheetah is guilty.
I wasn't planning to switch to slowcheetah, I stayed on Pin for a bit hoping someone would hop back on - and I will switch back to Pin if the opportunity to lynch him becomes available. How is voting for my #2 suspect when its him or me at all suspicious?

Because it was nowhere near a him or me situation yet.

lmost certainly innocent: zak, novice (still feels wolfish, but I don't see how he could logically be one, so..), then - molach, Sareln
probably innocent: mattimeo

Not necessarily damning, notice the wishy washy comment on novice, he could well be a possible packmate of Biggers, with Bigger trying very subtly to distance.

Your list really is the same as mine, only with matt and bigger in blue and you in white . your day 2 logic falls a part though - if TT is innocent, as you suspect (at least he's 5th in your guilty list behind me, pind, jkaen, and slowcheetah), then there can't be more than 1 wolf voting for injera. otherwise, they could have both switched to tt and at least forced a tie - and matt's vote might even have been swayed. So I don't see how me and pind could logically both be wolves.

This comment is just a bit odd, how would a tie help wolves? It would have given the village more information for a 50/50 chance of saving Injera who would have gotten lynched the next day.

IF me and pin were both wolves, as you say, the ONLY logical 4th wolf would be TT. Then, both of our votes on Injera would make sense - as we had to pick a wolf to lynch anyway, might as well save the one that village Lewwyn (who we knew would be night killed soon) was fighting to defend. No wolves are going to willingly bus another wolf when they could save him just by changing their vote (or in my case, leaving my vote on TT)
But if thats the case, you have to ask yourself why I started a bandwagon on TT, when I could have piled on jkaen and gotten him lynched?

Again that would tie things up. Which wouldn't really help the cause of the wolves massively.


He's also not lost oppurtunities to try and gain town cred, and allies, without being accusing.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=619

I'd suggest that there was maybe a mattimeo-bigger ring, and mattimeo was trying to get heat off of him. But that doesn't seem to make sense combined with Mattimeo's swing vote onto injera.

Pindicator:

Post 606:

I am curious what happens if i vote Bigger and tie things up.

Or would be counterproductive for the village?

Post 607:

on second thought let's keep the pressure on slowcheetah a bit longer.

Why the switch around? Covering bases when I turn up innocent?

And no, you can't go say that slowcheetah is 100% guilty based off this. But you can say that Lewwyn suspected him, and that merits investigation.

[quote]I was going to go after slowcheetah after Pindicator anyway, but he seems to be a more popular choice atm, so I'll switch. [/QUOTE

Hiding behind Mr Lewwyn is a good way to take the heat off yourself when this lynch goes bad.

It just seems like pindicator is trying to frame somebody, and I find his switch to Bigger and then back to me distinctly odd. Like he's trying to look like he's accusing Bigger.


Waterbat- It just seems convenient that he had practically the same final day voting pattern as me, but he can't really be questioned on it because his posting restriction got far far worse.

Sorry that took so long.

1) Got a phone call.
2) Apparently I'm pretty slow today.

[slowcheetah]

Further Secondaries

Jkaen- His endvote was irrelevant the first day. However, his vote on TT means he joins the suspicious lot, including myself. I get a read of village from his comments. However, I think he could definitely be a plausible wolfmate if Bigger is a wolf. Shying away from early bad cred on VM, maybe?

Rowain- I put him up here simply because he seems to be shaping the day. If we get another wolf, then I'd say he's probably the most virginally innocent of all of us. However, if we end up lynching a villager we need to look at him.

Don't have a clue

Sareln- He's just so damned lurky, he seems villager when he comments, but he hasn't shifting anything.

I didn't like this on him:

Slowcheetah > Bigger since we've already got a reveal out of Bigger which should clear with more time. So Slowcheetah pressure gains more info.

Why does the reveal of Bigger clear with more time? He scans wolf, that just seems to confuse the issue to me.

[slowcheetah]

Innocents-

Molach- Seems to have been relatively busy in real life, but when he comes around his comments make sense. Has a good voting record as one of the first 5 on Injera.

Mattimeo- Seems to have joined TT's defensive mindet. I don't really like this, but having the swing vote on Injera means he's probably innocent.

Novice- His voting record is good. His comments seem villager to me.

Zakalwe- A driving force behind the Injera lynch, probably makes him innocent.

TT- Two wolves on the block seems very unlikely, and TT's 'shot' fits in with his weird defense yesterday.

[slowcheetah]

I was voting Sareln simply to get a read on the guy. I'm worried he's going to slip under the radar. Unfortunately, there a lot of viable candidates (me, pindicator, bigger, waterbat??) and I appear to be one of them so nobodies joining me. Consequently, I'm switching my vote to Bigger

[Jkaen]

Further Secondaries

Jkaen- His endvote was irrelevant the first day. However, his vote on TT means he joins the suspicious lot, including myself. I get a read of village from his comments. However, I think he could definitely be a plausible wolfmate if Bigger is a wolf. Shying away from early bad cred on VM, maybe?

Erm, do I not get any credit for who my 'irrelevant first day vote' was against? I just made my day 2 vote a bit earlier than everybody else who went TT

[Rowain]

@waterbat

If I see it right your new restriction has replaced you old one, correct? Do you know if and when it will end? Do you know if your starting restriction will then reappear or would you be free from any restrictions?

@pindicator, TT

Any insights from you two or are you both happy to not be near the gallows?

@slowcheetah
thanks for you answers but still:
-Why should we not lynch you?
-Would you still lynch Bigger if you were not at the block?

[slowcheetah]

Erm, do I not get any credit for who my 'irrelevant first day vote' was against? I just made my day 2 vote a bit earlier than everybody else who went TT

Against Rowain, not really. If Rowain's a villager you could just be avoiding the big stuff, if Rowain's a wolf well one vote parked on him isn't going to hurt any. Having said that I don't think your day one vote is a major lead, you could just be a villager who particularly liked Rowain as wolf.

[pindicator]

Hey slowcheetah! Thanks for ducking in. I wanted to ask what your thoughts were at the time of this conversation with TT.

#474

I'm still not sold on Injera. I just have this feeling that the wolves are trying to set up another double villager situation as saving Injera is just so transparent that they would surely know that they could reveal at least one of their others in the process, if not more.

I'm keeping my vote where it is, but waterbat is a fool if he wants to take full responsibility for 'bussing' me when I am revealed to be innocent.

#475

What's not selling you on Injera, TT?

#478

A few things are making me hesitant to vote for him.

1) It seems most of the reasons for why people think he is guilty is basically because of what his playstyle has been before. I haven't played with Injera (I believe) so I don't really like fully relying on someone else's reasoning for my vote.

2) I am slightly wary that he has been in the lead pretty much all day and that most of the focus seems to have been on putting up another lynch candidate alongside him rather than to replace him. There hasn't been that much defence of Injera (that I can remember) so I worry that he could be a villager and the wolves were mainly trying to put me up to assure a double villager choice and then a likely mislynch of the other on the day after.

3) Trying to save him so blatantly by going for me would surely reveal a couple of wolves to the village when I am proven innocent. I'm not sure the wolves would want to do that this early.

Injera could be a wolf, I wouldn't be totally surprised if he is. I'm just not convinced enough, even if it would be expedient for me to vote for him to save myself.

#480

1) Yeah, I can see what you mean there.
2) Is a good point, although pressure on you has been building pretty much the same time as pressure on Injera. Personally I think both cases have merit, although I think you seem more wolvish. *Prepares self to be called a fool by The Drunken Blade*
3)I think that you're saying that both of you are villagers, because leaping on you to save wolf injera would be foolish at this point, correct?

#490, with no TT or SC posts between

Ok guys I'm not going to be around this evening come lynchtime (pub:neenernee). My vote is locked in on Twinkletoes

What were you hoping to gain from TT in asking him about why he didn't want to vote for Injera?
Why did you continue to vote for TT after agreeing he made good points?

There isn't much in there that explains your thinking, so I'm hoping you can help flesh this out.