March Madness: Civ4 AI Edition

[Jabah]

Sullla, you can substract 2 pts to my score, my prediction was T331 not 311 (so 24t off instead of 4t)

[Lord Parkin]

Thanks for all the effort keeping this thing running Sullla, it must be quite a time-sink. It's definitely appreciated.

[RefSteel]

The champ is down! The Russian is hurt! "You see? You see? He's not a machine, he's a man, he's a man!" Err woman, in this case.

Heh - but Sullla, you must remember, these AIs reside on your copy of Civ4. Their experience of playing against a human is ... not encouraging for them. I suspect the thoughts that would really have been going through their brains (if they, you know, had any) would be:

You see? You see? She's not a man! She's just a machine! She's just a machine!

I do feel bad for the Least Weedy AI though (er, sorry, Catherine; didn't mean to damn you with faint praise that way...) so I've written a brief story to commemorate her departure from the tournament.

The Tsarina frowned down over the floodplains, gazing across at the smoking husk of Moscow, still burning in places where the fighting continued between Russian resistance fighters and Byzantine imperial troops. No sound could be heard across the plains of her citizens - no longer her citizens - conducting business. No birdsongs could be heard, nor even the braying of mules from the horse pastures nearby; no living thing less daring than Yekaterina herself dared show itself by sound or motion nearby. The only noises to be heard on the air were the clatter and rumble of distant treads and the occasional thundering boom of a shell, from division upon division of Byzantine tanks. Even her night-black cavalry steed was cowering back in the stable at Yaroslavl as she stood alone, arms folded, on the hill, awaiting her fate.



A lone vehicle crossed the river on one the makeshift Byzantine bridges, carrying five men toward her: One of the ugly motorized carriages the Byzantines called by a name like "Cheap." There would be a man they called "driver" and three soldiers, heavily armed, and one man the Tsarina knew by name.



He smirked as he approached her, leaping from the ... the Sheep? ... as it pulled to a stop below the rise. "I've won, kitty cat. You know that."

The Tsarina's frown deepened, but the Byzantine Emperor only laughed. "I've dominated this planet. I rule alone, and nothing in the world can stop me."

"This world," she answered, unmoved. "The seventh world is mine, Justinian, conquered more decisively than this one. You have won here, true, for whatever good your victory may do you. Think you that you can win again in a new world shaped less to your liking? Think you that you can even survive?" She smiled a sudden, teasing smile, and threw Justinian a wink. "I did, you know. Thanks for winning this one, Justin boy, and sending me back home, alive, to rule the world I conquered. Maybe someday, you can come back and rule this one too ... if you manage to live."

Justin laughed. "Pretty kitty, I'm not sending you anywhere! Why, I drove all the way out here just to..."

She waved him away. "You bore me, Emperor. You won here, and I'm done with this land. Have fun in the next competition."

A soft light began to fill the sky as a soft, echoing voice proclaimed from everywhere and nowhere, "Justinian the First Has Won a Domination Victory!"

The Emperor of Byzantium preened, even as the world began to fade away around him, Yekaterina disappearing fastest of all. "Oh," she told him as an afterthought, "and watch your back. Sury will be there, no doubt with better access to better land than he had here, and..." she winked, the last image he would take with him from the world he had conquered into the new world to which his victory had led the way, as her parting words barely reached him: "...you know, don't you, Justy? He's better than you."
--------------------

Also, just for kicks, I created an unofficial roster of our current...

Survivors:
1. Catherine (Domination in Game 7, 3rd in Playoff Game 1)
2. Darius (4th in Game 6, 3rd in Wildcard Game)
3. Peter (3rd in Game 1, 4th in Wildcard Game)
4. Frederick (3rd in Game 6, 5th in Wildcard Game)

Frederick barely scrapes by, a last-place, barely-alive Wildcard survivor with an average rank of 4 across his two games; Darius and Peter have identical scores with an average rank of 3.5 over two games each, but Darius just edges out the Tsar, using head-to-head competition as a tiebreaker. As for Catherine and her two-game average of 2, of course she won't keep the top spot on the survivor's list - she will sooner or later be superceded, even if only by the tournament winner - but she can hold her head high for now, as no individual leader outside of these four is guaranteed to survive at all!

[Sullla]

Playoff Game Two. Here's our returning field of leaders.


Mansa Musa

Long ago I dubbed Mansa Musa as having the "winning" AI personality, and he did nothing to disprove that logic in his opening match. Mansa emerged as our winner from Game Two, starting out relatively small but eventually engulfing over half of the world. He showed himself willing to take over territory from another economic AI in the form of Willem, then faced down Mehmed in a lategame showdown for overall supremacy. If there's one weakness to the Mansa AI, it's that he can often prove to be too peaceful for his own good. The aggressive Mansa was on display in Game Two, and it was a terrifying sight. Mansa Musa has one of the game's best trait pairings in the form of Financial and Spiritual, along with a very strong Malinese civ that brings the Skirmisher and Mint. All of the AIs love to build archers, and the skirmisher makes Mali's version far superior. Mansa the AI has gold and religious flavors for research, and he'll found his own religion more often than you might think. Mansa is extremely pacifistic as a leader, with an aggression rating of only 1.6 out of 10. Only Lincoln and Gandhi are more peaceful. Unlike Gandhi, Mansa has an average rating for unit emphasis (4/10), and this is one reason why he tends to perform better. Mansa loves to trade with anyone and everyone, and he's rated extremely high on the peace weight scale as a "Good" leader. Oddly, Mansa will declare war at "Pleased" relations, the opposite of what you would expect. Mansa's economic might should make him a contender here even if he doesn't have much land, and if he does, the game is probably over.


Lincoln

Lincoln's victory in Game Five was the most unexpected result of the initial round. Almost everyone in our prediction contest had Ragnar to take that one, and we were all collectively shocked when Lincoln instead came out of left field and won via spaceship. The Great Emancipator managed to conquer a lot of territory from Kublai Khan, and then eventually out-teched the rest of the surviving field in an extremely peaceful conclusion. We should start to find out here whether Lincoln is a legit contender or simply someone who got lucky at the right time. Lincoln brings Charismatic and Philosophical traits, a below average pairing with modest economic benefit. His American civilization is one of the worst in the game, with the impossibly late Navy SEAL and Mall unique items. Lincoln AI has science and growth flavors, a very unorthodox combination. Very few AIs have the science flavor for their research. Lincoln AI is even more pacifistic than Mansa Musa, with an aggression rating of only 0.8 out of 10. Don't expect much conflict if they start next to each other! Lincoln is otherwise very average across the board. He doesn't care too much about religion, and he also gets rated very high on the peace weight scale as a "Good" leader. I'm curious to see what Lincoln will throw out here in his second game.


Mao Zedong

If Lincoln was the most unexpected winner from the opening round, then Mao's victory was probably the second most surprising result. Mao emerged from a crowded field as our winner of Game Eight, one of the rare occasions where a leader in the middle of the continent was able to come out on top. Game Eight had a shockingly slow tech pace, and ended about 100 turns after every other game that we've run, with Mao apparently managing the strange circumstances the best. He snowballed off of a conquest of Churchill and never looked back. Mao will have to manage his tech rate better in this game, he won't have the luxury of 430 turns to get his science in order. As an AI, Mao has Expansive and Protective traits, one of the best pairings that included the dreaded Protective. His Chinese civilization employs the Cho-Ko-Nu and the Pavilion uniques. Mao has growth and production flavors, and the unique status of paying less attention to religion than any other leader in the game. Mao AI simply does not care about your faith very much, pro or con. He does heavily emphasize espionage (8/10) and will demand civic changes (10/10) to his favorite civic of State Property. Mao has only an average aggression rating (5.7 out of 10), but he's willing to plot war at "Pleased", and he gets rated near rock bottom on the peace weight scale, as an "Evil" leader. Mao will hate both Mansa and Lincoln with a passion in this game, there's a gaping chasm between the two sides in peace weighting. Expect conflict if Mao borders either of them.


Alexander

Alexander makes his appearance as the first of our runner up leaders, having played a rather scrappy underdog position in Game Three. Alexander had a poor spot of land in the far north, and he struggled to break free of the corner that fate had dealt him. The solution to that problem was going to war, which Alexander did repeatedly throughout the game. Alexander didn't have much success against Isabella on his own, but he was saved by the intervention of his big sister Boudica, who went on to win the game in dominating fashion. The Greek leader piggybacked his way into the runner up spot, and a position here in the playoffs. Now Alexander will have another chance to make a name for himself. His traits are Aggressive and Philosophical, an odd pairing that doesn't appear to have much in the way of synergy. The Greeks use the Phalanx and Odeon unique items, which are a decent middle of the pack pair. (Greece has atrocious starting techs in the form of Hunting and Fishing, but this doesn't matter for the Deity AIs, who all get four free starting techs.) As an AI, Alexander has military and growth flavors. He is one of the game's top warmongers, with an aggression rating of 8.6 out of 10 and a similar unit emphasis (8/10 score). Alexander has a 2% chance to begin plotting war on every turn, which is tied with the other crazies like Montezuma and Shaka for the highest in the game. He can of course plot war at "Pleased" relations, and Alexader sits on the lowest possible rating in peace weight, dead zero "Demonic Evil" to use a term from Galactic Civ. Alexander will not like Mansa Musa and Lincoln, not one bit. This should make for some interesting gameplay, to say the least.


Elizabeth

Then we have Elizabeth, a complete contrast to Alexander and another leader in the mold of Mansa and Lincoln. Elizabeth came in second place in Game Six, but that was somewhat deceptive, as she led in score for most of the game and led in tech for the entirety of the game. Pericles only won the game due to a diplomatic vote in the United Nations; barring that, Elizabeth would have won via spaceship. Elizabeth's economic muscle was also responsible for an extraordinarily fast tech pace in Game Six, where she had mech infantry by Turn 250. In the super-slow tech pace of Game Eight, Mao was still using cuirassiers and muskets at that same date! Elizabeth can research like no one's business when she's left alone to tech in peace. This is due at least in part to her trait pairing of Financial and Philosophical, a pure economic route that works for both cottage and specialist economies. This seems to play well given the insane actions of the AI, where workers will routinely farm over cottages and then re-cottage the same tiles again. The English civilization has two strong unique replacements in the Redcoat and the Stock Exchange. Elizabeth AI uses gold and culture flavors for research. She is also a dedicated pacifist, with an aggression rating of 1.9 out of 10 and a dangerously low unit emphasis rating of 2/10. (For anyone counting, that means we three of the four most peaceful leaders in Civ4, missing only suicidally pacifist Gandhi.) Elizabeth AI likes to ask for help, but otherwise is a good neighbor and makes few demands. She's easy to get along with and makes a great friend. As expected, Elizabeth also has a stratospheric peace weight as a highly "Good" leader. She'll make great friends with Mansa and Lincoln, and she'll be a target of Mao and Alex.


Qin Shi Huang

This is the third time we're seeing Qin, after his initial third place finish in Game Three, and then his runner up position in the Wildcard game. He was extremely lucky to survive in the first game after falling as low as two cities at one point, and was largely rescued from death by the efforts of Boudica. Qin performed much better in the Wildcard match, where he won a lengthy series of wars against Washington and held on to second place in an endgame nuclear struggle against Zara Yacob. Now Qin has to face his distant Chinese descendant Mao Zedong in this battle for first place. Since Qin has appeared twice before, I'll try to keep the rest of this section relatively short. Qin has the weak trait pairing of Industrious/Protective, and his Chinese civ uses the Cho-Ko-Nu and Pavilion. He has production and growth flavors for research. Qin AI sits at average numbers in most categories, although he has a bit of a soft spot for wonders (6/10) and he likes to demand civic changes (8/10). His aggression rating is somewhat low at only 3.9 out of 10, but Qin will plot war at "Pleased" relations, and he's another leader rated very low on the peace weight scale as an "Evil" leader. The two Chinese leaders should get along well in this one, due to very similar peace weighting, perhaps we'll see a partnership like the Catherine/Stalin one that emerged in Game Seven.

Map, spoilered for size:

Same categories for predictions that we've been doing:

Winner
Runner Up
First to Die
Number of Leaders Surviving
Victory Type and Date

Plan is to keep the prediction contest open until Wednesday evening. Good luck with your entries.

[Commodore]

Winner-Mansa Musa
Runner Up-QIN
First to Die-Lincoln
Number of Leaders Surviving-3
Victory Type and Date-Space, 324

[antisocialmunky]

Oh god, that starting position for Mansa.

Interesting thing: Googling Mansa Musa gives you his Civ4 picture as his portrait.

[Sian]

Winner - Mansa Musa
Runner Up - Alexander
First to Die - Lincoln (to close to Mao, no other obvious wars till the map is almost filled out, cookies on them throwing their first settlers towards each other)
Number of Leaders Surviving - 3
Victory Type and Date - Space T 299

[Katon]

Winner: Mansa
Runner Up: Elizabeth
First To Die: Lincoln
Survivors: 3
Victory: Space, T309

Two of the best economic leaders around sitting off on the more spacious coast, unlikely to fight one another due to peace weight and mutual preference for builder games? Sounds like a recipe for a tech lead to me. Lincoln will get eaten up by the two Chinese leaders, but not quickly enough for one of them to keep up with the western monsters.

[Brian Shanahan]

Winner: Mansa
Runner Up: Mao (he'll eat honest Abe like the goblins in Troll 2, and then have loads of land to compete with Mansa, but won't quite have the same level of development as Mansa)
First to Die: Lincoln, sorry buddy you rode the bronco very well in the first game, but starting on top of the Chairman with no near neighbours to buddy up to and back you up will see you out at the semi final stage.
Number of Leaders Surviving: 4
Victory Type: Spaceship (Mansa has enough land to grow into, and I don't think he'll actually get into too many wars).
Date: 282.

[Twinkletoes89]

Winner: Mao
Runner Up: Mansa
First To Die: Elizabeth
Survivors: 3
Victory: Diplomatic, T319