[spoilers] Commodore and Dtay: Saladin of the Gael

[Commodore]

A general strategic thought: We have a map with 2790 land tiles, and 12 people. Our “fair share” of land is about 230 tiles...so a game-winning empire is going to conservatively own about 460 land tiles. Say 500 total tiles, or a 20x25 rectangle, for the “goal” size. I don't mind using peaceful REX, aggressive pushing, or raw conquest to net that size, but that'll come at the expense of one or more of the neighbors. Gaelic warriors are fine vehicles for claiming and capturing in the early classic era, and I'm not going to discount a “rush” (Polytheism-first means that no, we're not in a pure rush clearly).

Here's what that looks like, ish. Obviously, if someone tastier is due north or due west that's another direction, but I do think conflict with Wetbandit might well be inevitable. At the very least the scout's current location needs to be Celtic.
   

[Old Harry]

Hey, you could volunteer to sub!

[Commodore]

Sweet holy mother of Abraham Lincoln, I want this pink dot location.

LOOK AT IT. JUST LOOK.

[dtay]

Well, in the event this game happens... preliminary results of rough sims out to around t40. Very preliminary, doing more depth tomorrow.

1) I think we need to go Ag before Bronze Working. Otherwise ag doesn't come in soon enough for the farm at the wheat city. I tried to play through it anyway just to see where it led, but even the ability to chop came in awkwardly late and workers burnt turns getting to out of the way hills to mine just to avoid standing idle.

2) Mining->Ag has nice timing, mines and farms come online almost exactly as we need them. I think worker -> warrior -> settler ->worker ->warrior is the right call production wise, but haven't simmed beyond that extensively (3rd worker? Settler? Grow to size 4 to work 2 mines then worker/settler?). This will also depend on what city site we go for 2nd, down south needs the least worker turns, something east needs more, etc.

3) Borders pop t25 incidentally. Notably before we get the settler out or really make any decisions of consequence besides bronze working v ag, so we can really totally rewrite the plan if border pop reveals something interesting.

4) An alternate thought is that it's worth trying out a late-2nd city strategy and growing the capital tall first. Right now the 2nd city is being founded t32 (settler produced t29). If we pushed that back to the late 30's (following it quickly with 3rd and 4th cities) it makes the tech constraint easier + capital works nice amount of mines. Downside is obviously, late 2nd city, late to start growing, etc etc. And also that our capital doesn't really have hugely useful things to throw hammers into while growing. Barracks and tons of warriors are basically the options. Maybe a scout. But worth trying in my mind. Will do tomorrow.

So next 24 hours will try to iron out thoughts on the next branch points (2nd city production, timing of 3rd city) and try the tall strat out.

[Commodore]

That's interesting, so we're talking building the settler at size two? Going pig->sheep, I was able to get that settler at 28 for what it's worth. But instinctively I feel like we might actually be better off going to a tallish size 4 on mines, and maybe even growth size 5-whip to 4 for the settler if the Hindu happy cap allows that. Barbs are on and annoying so we're not going to mind a bit of a warrior swarm in any case.

[Commodore]

Conversation on our setup:

Commodore
Salut
Dtay
hey
looks like we're playing on at least
Commodore
Er
Well, we lost someone
Dtay
we did?
Commodore
Keep reading. >.<
Dtay
ah
gj edit
from the tech thread
seems like
he was not a fan
of thoth
Commodore
I opined in our thread.
Dtay
getting so many hut techs
Commodore
Settings=someone else getting techs
Dtay
yep
def accurate
Commodore
I mean, it's bad and all but I'll happily sport the whole field three tech if you let me pick my neighbor set.
Dtay
yeah, it doesn't make a ton of sense to fine tune start balance to the smallest difference and then have (random example) Krill and Yuri in the same game (actually couldn't get a great example of someone not-very-good, yuri is fine, krill is just obvi great)
Commodore
Well, Elkad is brand spanking new, rather him
But yes.
Thoth might have lucked into the Elkad/Donovan Zoi/Yuri triangle, too, I'd pretty much say that's game over more than questionably useful techs.
But it's Jojo, setbacks aren't his gig.
Dtay
i'm in i believe most of his games
Commodore
Been looking at the sims at all? How about the self-inflicted setback of this start and Hindu first.
Dtay
so i haven't relaly gotten to read much about him
Commodore
Ahhh, makes sense
Dtay
well, i like the hinduism cause it's a lot lower marginal cost than if there was something else we needed right away, i suppose pottery?
is the first tech we're getting later than we could really use it
cause hinduism
Commodore
Pottery is about turn 100?
Dtay
def late for a Pro civ
Commodore
:P
Yeah
Dtay
having not done the math at all that feel slike a pessimistic estimate
Commodore
Mining-BW next.
Dtay
agree
Commodore
Oh, it's mildly exaggerated.
But...still kind of silly how late it comes.
Dtay
i agree with the "don't push oracle too hard" instinct
but do want to see how the timings work out
honeslty i think it might even be tech constrained
rather than production/expansion constraind
Commodore
Sheep pasture, river mines...and either wine farm or marble quarry.
Dtay
but again, just gut instinct there
Commodore
Yeah, it'll be tech constrained, largely.
Monarchy as a target might be great, though.
Dtay
yeah i wasn't thinking abotu the free Spi switch
to HR
when i thought abotu the oracle
used to it being too annoying to switch civics
Commodore
Only needs priesthood, instant benefit, good cost, Feudalism line.
Feudalism is nice too
Serfdom is 75% in RBmod, recall.
Dtay
something good
yeah i need to adjust
all my
instincutla tech valuations
for the civics that can now be used
outside of timing-dependant
golden ages
Commodore
It's really great
Golden ages are just for hammer/beaker bursts.
Dtay
yeah, so weird
i really do basically think of them as the 3 chances to swap civics
in my games up to now
(4, maybe)
Commodore
Yeah, well, 6-8
Swap at start, then at end.
We're completely screwed if someone else nabs Hinduism, by the way.
Dtay
^true
double down for judaism?
Commodore
Er
Dtay
or give it up
(not right away)
(in any case)
Commodore
Not until after BW/Wheel/Agriculture at least.
Dtay
yeah, meant that, should have clarified
Commodore
Worker-settler-worker is the other result of this path.
Dtay
if someone is gonna beeline it before that we should not in fact follow them into that pit
Commodore
Not enough to do for the second worker until chops.
Dtay
makes sense
Commodore
I'm completely serious about the focus on quarry, fishing, and/or riverside commerce.
Dtay
i assume S to pasture sheep, then make it's way to the pigs?
didn't think otherwise
i skimmed through a while back, i think you did something similar in pb19?
Commodore
Eh, slightly
Farmed wines to get a couple key techs
Dtay
also, re: "Sure. Take my preferred civilization and leader then quit."
Commodore
Never got a single free spread all game, that's a bad omen.
Dtay
how abotu we just sub in for HIS start and now they fill ours :P
Commodore
Heh
Dtay
really, not a 1?
Commodore
Not one of my Hindu preferred
Obviously, others got it.
But internally, it was all spread manually, with a lot of failures at that.
Dtay
rough
what's the scout plan?
keep trying to meet people or double back for city site locating?
Commodore
Hrm
I'm inclined to keep forging on
For one thing, huts might aid that tech bottleneck
Dtay
if we get hindu that eases need to scout around capital
as well
borders would pop t...
26 or so?
Commodore
Yeah
Heh
Hindu *and* Oracle, 4th rings gets those clams in before long at all.
Dtay
lol
Commodore
Don't know if I like it for first new city, but the clams/marble/sharesheep city is nice
Lighthouses a lake, too
Dtay
agree not a great 2nd city cause no new food (and needs fishing for the 2nd ring clams)
and will be a ton easier to use just via capital border pops
Commodore
I think the wheat city might be best
Dtay
and not remotely in contention for someone stealing
Commodore
It's only a dry wheat, but it's on the river, plains hill.
Dtay
+don't need to settle it for the marble, so no real time pressure, it's just very good long term
yeah i agree wheat is best thus far
if there's food up north
Commodore
Well, it's a possible third city just got beakers.
Dtay
that could be good if it shares the pigs
makes sense
Commodore
Yeah, although sharing...isn't actually huge for us
Pottery comes online? Sure
But assuming religion falls, we have a good big happy cap but we don't want to whip.
Dtay
good point, still nice for when we get all those river grassland hills mined to avoid food pouring into settler/worker, but not nearterm critical
"don't wnat to whip" refers to commerce loss, correct?
Commodore
Well, and the efficiency issue
Hate whipping off without a granary.
Looking at the image...
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/attachment.php?aid=1377
Scout is at a crossroads
Dtay
guessing where start positions would be
seems like going north
would be pretty likely
to yield some huts
Commodore
Yeah.
Only counterpoint is that knowing where exactly WB is would be nice.
Dtay
idk, the combination of having the pb1 map + 3t scout radius means it's pretty tightly constrained where he could be
and knowing exactly which tile is unlikely to benefit us in the near term
unless we are planning a tightly-timed rush plan
Commodore
Er
Dtay
which i think is unlikely right now, and by the time we have gallics
Commodore
More than a dozen turns of Poly says "tightly-timed" isn't.
Dtay
we could send a warrior over
^yeah that was a bit tongue-in-cheek
Commodore
North it is
Contacts!
The good news about this wild tech start?
Wetbandit gives us bonus beakers now
Probably more people as we meet them.
KTB isn't huge ancient era, but it helps.
Dtay
haha
silver linings
Commodore
Wait, nope.
No KTB until classical
Dtay

Commodore
Ah well, still fine, just need to let 50% of the world be Hindu
[much later, posted superpink picture]
Commodore
Yessir
That plains hill needs to be speaking Gaelic .
http://i.imgur.com/OwOf868.jpg
Dtay
quite quite
in general
very conveniently large # of hills
between us and wb...
Commodore
Oh yeah, it's very very hilly
Dtay
how many city-widths out is that spot?
looks like 4 or so? (judging minimap, not specific terrain)
Commodore
Three
Wheat, gapper, superpink
Dtay
if it was... 5th city then that would probably beat wb to it unless he also went straight at it
(leaving a slot for the city down south earlier discusses)
Commodore
Julius Caesar
Imp says maybe not
Dtay
hmm, point
Commodore
Two GII archers, make it city #3
Dtay
4th, skip the gap? pro-archers to defend?
Commodore

Dtay
or 3 lol
Commodore
Hah, yep
That's tantamount to war
Buuuut that's okay.
Probably 4th, honestly
Wheat city, *copper*, superpink
Dtay
haha
who needs copper
or wheat
2nd
Commodore
Don't tempt me.
Because it would tempt me.
Dtay
we only need sheep
and let's get a sheep port
build roads of sheep
#catan
Commodore
Seafarer rules, we only need sheep and wood for boat-routes anyway...
But if this is Catan, gotta fear the robber.
Dtay
depending on where wb settles, if we both go right at each other
i feel like
going straight to iron working
before math and it's successors
could be reasonable
but if he ends up ceding the majority of the middle ot us we might want to just play the longer game
Commodore
That'd be completely insane, but...I like it
Gaels don't even need iron, they get built with copper.
Dtay
...
didn't even know that
Commodore
Copper or iron, yep
Makes them just a bit better.
Dtay
but like, +50% city attack and +50% hill defense
stacks of them
are just a pain for someone to deal with
pre catapults
shock axes are the best bet i guess?
but wb, being not agg, won't have much of those
Commodore
Yeah
Get them up higher to 5xp...
No wait
Just 3xp, with a Dun
You can then take GIII, which is +50% withdraw
Dtay
insanity
and negate the hill defense bonus for good measure
i keep repeating to myself that we do not in fact
want to force a stupid war
just to get to use them
Commodore
Yeah
Well
Um
Dtay
but i keep seing
reasonable uses
being plausible
Commodore
Not to bring up bad memories...
But Pin lost one sword per rifle vs. you in 18
Dtay
ugh, don't need to remind me
but yeah, long shelf life
on the +50% city attack being useful
Commodore
Swords have a crazy shelf life
With that defense, a fine city garrison life too, if it's a hill
Which all our site thus far can be.
Gaels are...kind of nice.
Oh course, Duns giving GII means that axes and spears get it too
So we don't have to go IW to get fast-moving melee.
Dtay
good point
goes obsolete at rifling, right?
Commodore
Yeah
Even so.
Dtay
quasi musketeers, weirdly
Commodore
Don't mind upgrading as much in RBmod
Dtay
on the subject of bad memories...
not even sure which time i'm referring to with that
Commodore
Heh, sorry
You've been learning in hard mode
Dtay
well, the time you were involved i honestly just deliberately provoked a war
out of desire to not just sit there the whole game
cause commandos are awesome
in retrospect seems like war was only possible, not as inevitable as i thought
anyway
duns
surprisingly number of application
large number of hills, good
war with wetbandit, long term probably inevitable, short/medium term possible
actual sims - gonna try some out to 3-4 cities or so tonight
and how oracle fits in
Commodore
Sweet, good luck

[Commodore]

Finally, sent this to Xenu already but just for reference:

Next week: All this again.

[dtay]

I actually waited a turn after getting to size 2 to complete a warrior (working sheep + grassland forest) in the "quick settler" option, which is the t28 v t29 disparity.

Gonna go try some stuff now, back with results.

[Bobchillingworth]

I'm not sure how good Elkad is at Civ, but he's not new to MP- he's been active at Civfanatics for a long time.

[Commodore]

Dtay, you're doing a hero's work but I'd probably hold off on more simming at the moment. Krill has gone nuclear so this might be all of it for this one. Wait-and-see is probably called for here.