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Mardoc Wrote:On the contrary, I think that one part failing wrecking my whole theory is the best kind of theory - I don't have to get to end game to convince myself I'm wrong, if I am; on the other hand, if I'm right, then it makes valuable predictions. The instant we find a wolf not in my target list, or a villager in it, I get to start over with a fresh approach. I currently don't think that'll happen, but I acknowledge that a day and a half of evidence isn't much.
The worst kind of theory is one that can always be explained away and adjusted without actually changing your mind on anything.
QFE. That is exactly why I want PB lynched.
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Roland Wrote:To suggest, on your first game, that 80% of the 'Wolf team is that incompetent is either naive (my bet), or outright arrogant - and you do not strike me as arrogant. 
It's also true that if I'm right, it's largely due to luck.
Rowain Wrote:QFE. That is exactly why I want PB lynched. Lynching someone on my list is the fastest way to disprove my theory, if I'm wrong. Not sure how it affects your theory, Rowain, since you haven't spilled it.
EitB 25 - Perpentach
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Rowain Wrote:QFE. That is exactly why I want PB lynched.
You want PB lynched to prove your theory? What theory is that? There's no point keeping it secret now.
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uberfish Wrote:You want PB lynched to prove your theory? What theory is that? There's no point keeping it secret now.
I've got to agree with uberfish, here. Unless we have a big change, your theory is likely to die with you. Especially if it's different than my theory, it'd be nice to have an alternate take to start from in the event I'm proven wrong.
EitB 25 - Perpentach
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Mardoc Wrote:Lynching someone on my list is the fastest way to disprove my theory, if I'm wrong.
Exactly. And PB is the highest candidate on my list. Although to add I don't have 5 secure candidates. Forme I have 8 people with PB beeing the testing-dummy if you like.
If he turns out to be a villager I can scrab my theory. If he is a wolf I feel confident enough for the next 2. But it looks like he might avoid the noose again.
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pocketbeetle Wrote:Why?
What does he do that seems positive to you?
Genuine question.
I found all the voters on MJW incredibly suspicious, as they lynched a candidate some people voted for meta-game reasons and were excused for it. Rowain was the only person to hop off the MJW vote, which was as safe as a vote as you could make. This was the positive vibe.
So I took a chance and followed his day 2 plan, I think he was trying to catch the voters who jumped off you PB and if none did, well you would provide positive villager info even as a villager. However I was not going to let Selrahc slide, a MJW voter, and so I switched before it became a pb-novice referendum.
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30 minute warning.
Blog | EitB | PF2 | PBEM 37 | PBEM 45G | RBDG1
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So it's either Rowain or Selrahc. I don't care much for either of the two, so I'm basically... what's that word?
Indifferent.
(Thank you google translator.)
As much I'd like to remain on the fence on this one for that reason, that's illogical, since every abstaining villager will effectivively increase the value of each werewolf vote.
I've advocated to lynch novice, and he's voting for Rowain, so lets check how much our mayor's judgement is really worth since you want to let him live.
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Lynch:
8v: Rowain (Pocketbeetle, novice, Meiz, Selrahc, zakalwe, Serdoa, JKaen, sandover)
7v: Selrahc ( Ichabod, uberfish, Irgy, Bruindane, Gold ergo sum, scooter, Roland )
5v: Pocketbeetle ( Rowain, Lewwyn, Mardoc, Fire & Ice, Cull )
1v: novice ( Mr Nice Guy )
0 Not voted:
PS welcome to the party sandover
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Still a tie, since Rowain should soon switch for Selrahc 
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