WW17 - A Game of Thrones

[pindicator]

That's a nice development to wake up to

Most likely our scum is one of Tasunke / Mardoc. Since Lewwyn sees it the same way, I'm going to consolidate village votes rather than give a (however unlikely) opportunity to a last minute swing.

Mardoc

[Mardoc]

No, that was it. If you don't have time, at this point it's okay - but please do try to get thoughts out before the deadline on the chance that you aren't scum. Although I see you did start to do that with your post earlier today, so kudos for that.

How about this: do you still suspect Tasunke even though he was the one that was on Twinkletoes Day 1 and stayed on him through his lynch day 3? And if so, why?

I don't honestly believe vote records are that telling. RB meta has gotten to the point where scum hunt other scum almost more than the village does. It's not that implausible that Tasunke decided to take advantage of being not usually listened to and distance himself, hard.

I suspect Tasunke because his posts just feel off. Sorta like how I fingered Coco - and if I'd had more faith in my gut than my logic, I might have lynched him day 2. And, well, process of elimination - more later.

Some other thoughts:

I still don't like this name claim business, but since everyone else seems to be doing it...

I'm the loyal Myrcella Baratheon, role seer. Being a cute little girl means people let their guard down around me, and freely share information about they do.

I've scanned Lewwyn (vigilante), Rowain (no result), Jkaen (no result) and Qgqqqqq (doctor).

Interesting! I like your choices of people to scan. I think Lewwyn and Q confirm your power is real. The fact that neither has died is a very strong indication you're not a traitor.

azza you f-ing idiot.


if we're doing that then either jkaens innocent, lewwyns scum (unlikely now) or there was no kill attempt night 3 (? the one rowain died)

Hmm...I can think of other causes, but I finally had time to reread Lewwyn's claim, and it fits.

I tend to think Jkaen is loyallist anyway, but that's more a tone thing.

I missed something completely about how that would make lewwyn scum? We haven't had a roleblocker, have we?

So, remaining people:
Pindicator: village leader, pushed hard for TT lynch, seems to be asking all the right questions. If he'd trust his gut on me rather than zak's logic, I'd be happier, but perfection is too much to ask.

Azza: tone has improved recently. Claim of village roleseer is extremely plausible - two scan results confirmed, scanned only suspicious people, found a couple roles and those people have lived. And he revealed his results at a very good time to clear suspicious people, too. Without that claim, both Lewwyn and Q were plausible mislynches.

Lewwyn: Don't like the tone and content, but his claim coupled with Azza's scan probably clears him. Would have been nice if someone had said he claimed a multishot vig...my previous posts on him only make sense if he claimed 1-shot.

I'm awfully confused by this, though:

Commodore, Hot Pie, Lurker was killed night 1
BrickAstley, Mace Tyrell, Loyalist was killed night 1
Ichabod, Arya Stark, Loyalist Tracker/Watcher was killed night 1

Pling, Asha Greyjoy, Lurker was killed night 2
Serdoa, Janos Slynt, Traitor Jailkeeper was killed night 2
Novice, Varys, Jack of All Trades Survivor was killed night 2

Thestick, Gregor Clegane, Lurkicidal Bulletproof Serial Killer quit the game and was mod-killed day 3
Rowain, Sansa Stark, Loyalist was killed night 3

Coco, Cersei Lannister, Traitor went AWOL and was mod-killed day 4
Zakalwe, Petyr Baelish, Loyalist Pimp was killed night 4

Lewwyn claims Brick and Rowain, and I think we can assume Thestick got the lurkers. That still leaves:
Night 1: Ichabod
Night 2: Serdoa, and Novice
Night 3: No one (Q claims credit for save)
Night 4: Zakalwe

Ichabod, novice, and zak all make perfect sense as scum-kills.

Who killed Serdoa, then? Thestick? But if he killed Serdoa, how come he didn't kill night 1 or night 3?

Here's an alternate explanation: Thestick killed all of Brick, Rowain, and Serdoa, then quit. Or killed simply Brick and Serdoa, even, and the scum killed Rowain.

I don't like it. But...I can't argue with Azza's claim. And I can't see 2 remaining scum, who claimed high profile roles, which is the only alternative.

And, frankly, that seems to mean thestick's role was, in fact, a gimped serial killer, who somehow had to scrape victory out from extremely limited killing and voting power. Which fits very well with 'quit out of having no fun'

Qgqqq: Doctor confirmed by Azza. Doctor scum is implausible, but Uber might do it. Uber did a vegetarian werewolf in a game without a seer, after all. My gut says he's ok, though. Slightly nervous that he's not drinking the Kool-Aid on me, maybe he has a cheatsheet? But realistically this is the wrong time to use a cheatsheet as a traitor.

Jkaen: Vanilla villager claim, vanilla part confirmed by Azza. Tone feels like Jkaen villager. Possibly saved night 3 by Q, although he seems like an odd target.



Tasunke: He voted for Coco and TT. But his tone feels wrong, he was very happy to push me to the block (and without much reasoning, just cheerleading pind and zak). Currently pushing that bizarre alternating serial killer theory, despite that being the sort of role to cause super excessive boredom. Hard enough for a regular SK to win, but a nerfed one? Aside from meta, he's said hardly anything this game, which is out of character.

Yanno, it'd be really funny if Jkaen and Mardoc were the last two wolves
As for the last 2 wolves, I think Jkaen has sufficiently convinced me that Mardoc is not a wolf.

Therefore I think the last to wolves are Qgqqqq and, quite possibly, Sareln

He's currently voting me, pushing Lewwyn - I know the game is hard, but that's literally 4 of the last 6 non-Tasunke people accused as scum since last Wednesday.

Mardoc: Going to bite it and flip villager, but you won't take my word for it. Likely only 1 scum left means village still has a good chance. If you guys manage to lose this despite 3 scum dying to SK and modkill...I will be very disappointed, and RB balance will need to change somehow.

Everyone else is probably cleared by the roleclaim, except Pind, who's cleared by the sheer effort he's put in. I don't like the setup, but the various claims fit together too well for someone to be lying. If there are that many liars (Lewwyn, Q, and Azza all have to be lying if any are), then none of them had any reason to speak up and claim in the first place, just lynch me and win. And that also requires a 6-scum faction, in a game with a SK and only 19 players.

Ok, Pind, I finally paid you back for last Wednesday. Please please please win this for me tomorrow!

[Qgqqqqq]

didnt thestick die end of D3?
whats kool aid?

my only worry is scum role seer buying cover OR azza making a crazy gambit and geussing me as baner.
neither of which unfortunatly, do i find that unlikely.

[Tasunke]

Azza, why did you get no result on Rowain? Wasn't he tracker/watcher or something?

If we still have scum after mardoc, I'd look in the Azza/Qgqqq territory

[Tasunke]

The Stick died before night 3, so no way he could have done 3 kills.

At most he did 2 kills ... but Lewwyn is claiming some kills, so that means (iircc) that TheStick only killed Serdoa.

I guess we will never know if he was alternating or if he just couldn't kill on day 1, or if Lewwyn simply took the credit for those kills (last of which doesn't seem likely)

[pindicator]

Tasunke, please answer my question.

What were your tells on coco and TT on day 1? I didnt see reasoning there but you stayed on TT nost of the day by repeating other people's accusations

Mardoc- not sure it matters which of you i vote for. I think Tasunke is more likely guilty, but it looks like if we guess wrong then the other person gets vig shot by lewwyn. At least thats how i would play it in his shoes

[Mardoc]

didnt thestick die end of D3?

Oh. Didn't really remember, but that does make it unlikely he killed someone night 3, I agree.

whats kool aid?

It's a type of drink for children. In this use, it's an idiom for following people into craziness, from Jim Jones' cult in the 70's who all committed suicide by drinking kool-aid with poison in it.

my only worry is scum role seer buying cover OR azza making a crazy gambit and geussing me as baner.
neither of which unfortunatly, do i find that unlikely.

I considered it. But...revealing it makes no sense if Azza is scum. He was already mostly unsuspected, and the effect of his reveal was to make you and Lewwyn mostly safe. If he's scum, then all he had to do was keep his mouth shut and let the mislynches fall one after another.

Plus, if he's scum, he found you out quite early. Before you saved Jkaen, IIRC. Wouldn't he have killed you by now?

Azza, why did you get no result on Rowain? Wasn't he tracker/watcher or something?

If we still have scum after mardoc, I'd look in the Azza/Qgqqq territory

Hah, that puts you up to suspecting everyone but Pindicator! Not willing to declare *anyone* innocent?

Tell me, if Azza is scum, how do you explain him revealing?

Tracker was Ichabod, btw.

Mardoc- not sure it matters which of you i vote for. I think Tasunke is more likely guilty, but it looks like if we guess wrong then the other person gets vig shot by lewwyn. At least thats how i would play it in his shoes

I think you're probably right, but there's more style in being a living part of the victorious village than in being the last mislynch . And surely there's more style in voting for the last scum, than in letting the vig do your dirty work?

[Qgqqqqq]

why reveal?

because revealing before me means that we have now set ourselves up for a mislynch fest.
he said he scanned me N4.
he was not under suspiscion at the time but seeing as a confirmed baner (N3) was about to step forward, who btw has been suspicious of him since D2, that mightve changed

[Tasunke]

ah gotcha (about Ichabod).

Now that I think about it, at least for now, I think we can confirm Azza and Lewwyn as being innocent. Either that or Azza was confirming to SK Lewwyn that he is the last wolf, to not accidentlally kill a wolf ... but that is overly complex and would place the two players into a WWJD scenario (or is it WITOH?) -> either way, some variant of the prisoner's dillemma.

Personally, I'd prefer to just call em both innocent for now.

Then, from a position of assuming Azza's innocence, Qgqqq looks pretty innocent (yet still possible wolf).

And, since I know that I am not a wolf

Possible suspects would be Pindicator, Mardoc, and possibly Qgqqq

But I don't think Pindicator is a wolf.

Therefore, my guesses are on Mardoc and Qgqqqq

if Mardoc flips innocent then I'd vig-shot Qgqqq, and that didn't work I'd lynch pindicator after that.

[Qgqqqqq]

youd vig shoot a confirmed baner?

yeah i changed my mind, definitely tasunke next.

whats the kool aid on you mardoc?