Bigger Wrote:I appreciate you putting up your thoughts, I wasn't trying to silence you - but I do think its a little disingenuous to say "look at how active I am" when all your activity was within the past hour.
If that's what you got from that post, then you totally missed what I was saying. All I'm observing there is that it's pretty crowded down here at the bottom of the post count.
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I ended up deciding to go with a vote record before an individual analysis Injera. What I found was interesting but I'm not sure all that groundbreaking.
Cliff Notes:Mattimeo looks pretty innocent to me, as him being a wolf means a crazy gambit by wolves on day 1. Merovech and Pindicator made very questionable votes at the end of day 1. Inclined more towards pressuring Pindicator over Merovech.
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Divide day 1 into 4 phases.
- Phase 1 of the day opens up with a scattershot of votes. Gaspar is the first to 2 votes, followed by Molach and Tasunke, but then Tasunke breaks away from the pack out to 4 votes (I vote for Tasunke, P37). This is a position he holds until the beginning of Phase 2.
- Phase 2 begins when theStick ties Tasunke in the vote count at 3 votes (Novice votes for theStick, P83) and then takes the lead when Meiz leaves Tasunke's wagon (P96). Over the course of phase 2, theStick gradually gains as his votecount oscillates between 4 and 5. Notably, Bigger climbs to 2 - 3 votes in this phase. A run begins on Mattimeo, which deserves its own phase.
- Phase 3 begins with the run on Mattimeo. theStick is actually the first Mattimeo voter, joined by Serdoa, who abandons the wagon before returning after Pindicator and Myself join the wagon. He's followed by Uberfish and Twinkletoes. After Mattimeo claims, the wagon eventually dissolves.
- Phase 4 is the run on Bigger, which proceeds to the end of the day. theStick actually goes as high as 11 votes, but Pindicator and Merovech both abandon theStick's wagon at 5 min. and 10 min. remaining respectively, making it a 9.1-8 lynching of theStick who flips Mafia.
Looking at the big picture, I think it's interesting to see what happened to each of those Mattimeo voters after Mattimeo made his claim.
As the Mattimeo wagon collapses there are (possibly) two kinds of voters on Mattimeo: Wolves and Villagers.
Wolves know that theStick is guilty, so they have to make a snap decision: do they bus theStick for village credit, or do they attempt to build a different bandwagon? If Mattimeo is innocent they also know he's telling the truth*, so they need to get
off his wagon post-haste.
Villagers on him only know that Mattimeo has claimed cloaker. And then theStick claims watcher. So what do we do? Clearly we shouldn't stay on Mattimeo. Even if he's lying, it's just too risky a possibility to lynch any village protective role on day 1. What about lynching theStick? That might be solid if he's lying, but once again, if he's telling the truth we're lynching a villlage information role on day 1. Also pretty damn bad. Also, theStick has a pretty strong lead, maybe he's telling the truth and any wolves on him are going to stick and get that anti-village mislynch in.
So both wolves and villagers, if they're thinking clearly, see that there are only two options left for their votes at end of day. Either theStick or Bigger (the one with the 3rd place vote total).
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So what actually happened then?
There were six of us who constituted the Mattimeo wagon at its height (6).
theStick: Unvoted
Pindicator: Unvoted, voted theStick, and then voted Merovech.
Sareln (self): voted Bigger.
Serdoa: voted theStick.
Uberfish: voted Bigger.
Twinkletoes89: Unvoted, and then voted theStick.
theStick unvotes completely and then never lays another vote. This was puzzling to me. I suspect though is that it indicates the initial wolf decision was to bus
or it was theStick's way of indicating to his teammates that a save should not be attempted.
Pindicator unvotes immediately and then votes theStick. However, when Merovech moves from theStick to Bigger, Pindicator casts a vote for Merovech, claiming to want to put pressure on him (for 5 minutes?).
What this move
does do is open up the possibility of a wolf save. It is entirely possible however that the wolves were just as in the dark as the village at the end of the day as the votes were flying.
I see two plausible claims and make a vote on Bigger. Some people have jumped me for saying that both claims were testable. I'll address that in my next post.
Serdoa votes for theStick.
Uberfish votes for Bigger
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* Mattimeo could be a wolf, but if so I'd be wondering what the wolves were up to. With a wolf the clear favorite on the block, the last thing to do is bring up another wolf as candidate! Since theStick launched the Mattimeo wagon, and we know that he is a Wolf, that's exactly what needs to have happened for Mattimeo to be guilty. It's not impossible, but improbable enough to discard until significantly later in the game when we have more data.
