[PB25-SPOILERS] The Lunacy of the Reign of HAK Continues

[HitAnyKey]

If Donnovan has still lost a stack of units after the change in management his interest in the game will be gone. Gavagai is probably done playing as well if he's truly being 3-way dogpiled. So you're really the only one keeping the came from concession. We'll have to be mindful of that if our prospects deteriorate. Also, this will mean that MC is more likely to attack us directly to force concession.

From the looks of it Donovan still lost the stack, and then they signed Peace. Not good. Was really hoping Donovan would be able to take Tasunke down a few notches. Oh well.
Then again, I do want Tasunke to keep conquering Elkad to the degree that it makes Commodore want to do something about it....such as trying to also take some of Elkad's lands or trying to slow Tasunke by attacking him again. Either of these options would keep Commodore off my back.

[MindyMcCready]

I'm glad to see the size of that concentrated stack.

Some thoughts:
1. That WE stack that you posted on T142 was 8 1/2 turns outside of Wendys. So that stack shouldn't arrive until T150 assuming that it's not still stationed as MC deterrant.

2. The stack of 6 Numidian Cav should arrive imminently.

3. We have the option of beating that WE stack to Wendy's particularly if we bypass 5 Guys although both might be possible. This is only a good idea if Gavagai has pumped out Archers instead of Cats. We'll need 1T to strip the walls.

If we pull up with 10 cats with walls stripped Gavagai will know that it will be an absolute slaughter. So our objective could be force a retreat on Wendys and then sign peace for the backfill locations. If we can accomplish that we will likely have our stack intact to prevent MC from riding though Gavagai land to attack us. Gavagai could also have his army intact to also prevent an MC advance.

4. Given the above, I think that we need to spend $$ on EP to regain visiblity on Gavagai. With that type of info advantage we might be able to sweep all the cities along the Wendy's line. Definately worth it. Gavagai's was only generating 50 gpt so he can't keep us out with the same tactic and if he does he delays CBs and extends our UU dominance. There's also the issue of knowning what MC might be doing which is enormously valuable.

5. Looks like CS is not an option for a civic switch this GA. The one thing that I'd point out is that MC's holding tech has seldom been the one that he has ultimately choosen. So he might not be treating Nationalism as urgently as you're assuming. He's got to have his eye on Education and Liberalism.

If CS is not possible, then I wouldn't object to Monarchy if it's 1T. A beeline to Nationalism has high opportunity cost but getting there 5T earlier = 15 more maces. Nevertheless, 1T for +1 happy wines and +1 happy MP is probably worth the delay. As and FYI, my other main concern regarding too much delay on landing Nationhood is that, if MC beats us to it he could add 3 maces + 2-3 knights per turn and that would be enough to crush thourgh our choke.

6. I don't think that MC will be attacking GJ/Krill/Flauros anytime soon. MC's down to 3 options in my mind for winning this game: 1. Eat Gavagai, 2. Eat Elkad, 3. Attack us directly, and in that order. So whatever we can do to eat as much off Gavagai while simultaneously preventing MC from eating him would be my main goal.

I don't think that trying to sweep Battle island is off the table 20T from now.

7. That's got to be Donnovan's 2nd unsuccessful war now? I don't think that we can put too much stock in him being a factor anymore despite his tech rate and score.

8. Don't waste cats on 1 unit attacks. They should be reserved for stack destruction and culture defense removal. We might need to put Burning Spears on cat production since we haven't been building replacements.

Got to go. Good luck!

[HitAnyKey]

Heading to pool for a bit, will finish my turn later when I decide where I want to move the stack. First up the regular details:



Took the city with no loses. WE killed first Archer. Sword killed second Archer.

This is where need to make decision. He's now got a big stack in Five Guys, with a good number of Catapults as expected. Do I move my stack to the hill 1N or 1NE of the city? All comes down to whether I force him to move his units east before attacking me (so as not to attack across the river) or just attack across the river (so he can keep any surviving units in the city).
The big question is this....can a Lurker confirm for me....if I'm on the hill 1NE. On my turn because of Engineering +1 movement can ALL of my units move 1W (onto the hill across the river) and attack the city on the same turn? I think so, but want to make sure. If they can't, then I'll have to move everything to the hill 1N of the city so that I can attack it next turn without going across the river.

Anyway, will be back to move the stack and end my turn after pool time with the family.

[BRickAstley]

No, because it is in his culture. So unless you're commando the road and therefore Engineering makes no difference, you're moving onto a hill which takes 2 movement.

[spacetyrantxenu]

No, because it is in his culture.

[HitAnyKey]

No, because it is in his culture. So unless you're commando the road and therefore Engineering makes no difference, you're moving onto a hill which takes 2 movement.

Thanks. For a moment I couldn't remember if the +1 road movement included roads in territory of someone you are at war with. So it's only for in your own, those you have open borders with, or those roads that are in no culture.

[MindyMcCready]

Have you played already? This probably requires a SIM before proceeding.

[MindyMcCready]

Shock WE vs C1 LK
100 HP: 9.9% (due to hill)
90HP: 21.2%
80HP: 39%
70HP: 47%


I'd recommend moving to 1NE of Five Guys.
-We stay out of range of a couple of more units.
-There are almost certainly another 6 NC running around somewhere. Unless they're MC garrison they've had more than enough time to get back here.
-Our cats are safe, Gavagai doesn't have enough to flank us.
-The river defense shouldn't matter very much on the attack. A couple of cat will neutralize any penalty that we'd have.

Back of the envelope, those 7 cats will generate 28 splashes of collateral over our 24 - staybehind units.

Sitting on a hill, a LK can take 3 collateral hits before coin-flip odds vs a Shock WE.

In all likelihood Gavagai retreats from the city since he's unlikely to be able to kill our stack. If he tries to defend, almost none of his units have a defense bonus so it would be a slaughter despite the river.

I just noticed that the tile SW of Five Guys will probably not have culture in it. So our next move if we don't hold up could be SE of Wendy's on to that hill. I don't think that that changes anything except that we could kill Wattaburger with a HA and/or chariot. We could try to hold the city to get him to waste some unitss on the attack.

But this is where things are going to get a little dangerous. If we take Five Guys Gavagai will have cultural control and can hit us with cats anytime that he wants. I would say that our move on Five Guys is a diversion and the real objective is to hit Wendy's the turn after. The hill at Wendys won't make too much difference given his lack of defensive units.

So if we generate a retreat at Five Guys I wouldn't even leave units to protect it but instead move everything SE of Wendy's for the main battle.

Good luck!

[HitAnyKey]

Yes, I played it last night and moved the stack to the tile 1N of the city. I try my best at doing a sim, and I think I made the stacks at least close to what they are in the game. Only had time to run a single sim, since I had to get over to a family thing. And in that one sim, I only lost a single LK even after having all of those Catapults thrown against it. So unless I really screwed something up, I'm fairly sure I won't be logging in this turn to having a decimated stack. Maybe heavily wounded, but most of it should survive.

[HitAnyKey]

-There are almost certainly another 6 NC running around somewhere. Unless they're MC garrison they've had more than enough time to get back here.

I have city visibility on him again, and I forget exactly where they are, but I do remember making sure that his stack of NC were not in range.....I think.