[PB61 spoilers] Bing Xi Lao stumbles into the ring

[Tarkeel]

That's a lot of units. Have you kept track off kill/loss ratio?

[Charriu]

I see he also brought barbarian mercenaries with him. Good thing you have an axe for that.

[BING_XI_LAO]

That's a lot of units. Have you kept track off kill/loss ratio?

I think so far I've killed 2 warriors and 3 chariots, while losing nothing (except a scout and warrior ot barbs earlier in the game)
Of course I've lost a lot in terms of delayed 3rd city, forced into pop rushing troops, and deterred from completing some improvements.

[BING_XI_LAO]

I see he also brought barbarian mercenaries with him. Good thing you have an axe for that.

I'm hoping the barbs are going to cause more problems for him!

[BING_XI_LAO]

TURN 63

MASSIVELY good turn, with very good battle RNG playing a major role. I lost one Axeman this turn, while killing two skirmishers and four chariots.
Judging by the vodka calculator, I only had a 58% chance of a broadly favourable outcome from the hill assault that was central to this turn: if I prosper at all this game, it's because of two good RNG rolls with two axemen attacking skirmishers on the hill. That's only a 19.44% chance of victory, but the first Axeman actually won with 2.9 str left, and the second brought the skirmisher down to 0.4 strength, which allowed me to finish him off with a warrior - thus freeing a Spearman to join the defense of Assabiyah. I think that was a 2% chance, that it would go that well.

But let's do a recap first:
Up to this point, here's how the war had gone: Rekenner showed with a bunch of chariots just as I made my first spearmen: the chariots lurked around the edges, forcing a delay to my third city settlement and preventing my workers doing much. They also forced me to expend population on rushing troops, and to stop researching (I am still researching Agriculture on turn 63), so that I'd have the gold to upgrade warriors (I have upgraded two so far). So that represented a total economic stasis - even regression as the number of units (especially on his side I think) started costing upkeep.

The second phase of the war began when Rekenner brought skirmishers onto the field, of which I've now seen eight, though two have died. Obviously the big difference with them as compared to Chariots, is they can sit on a hill and be too painful to attack, and they can threaten to take even a hill city in sufficient numbers. So this would at the very least impose a whole new level of economic strangulation on me, with more pillaged improvements. However, the other possibility - of catching me out and taking a city, by moving the skirmishers next to one city, then switching gears and moving towards a different one faster than I could reinforce, didn't happen, because the copper was en route between my two forward towns anyway, so I had to fortify units on top of it anyway to prevent a sacrificial chariot razing the mine. That meant I could effectively shift reinforcements from one city to the other in one turn: the over-garrisoned city would contribute its surplus defenders to the copper tile, freeing up copper defenders to the other town.

This brings us to TURN 63. The turn that he decided to move two Skirmishers and a chariot onto the cattle hill, as well as two chariots to pillage the roads next to my cap. And a stack of four skirmishers and two chariots next to the copper, threatening both it and the town next to it.
 
I've played patiently so far: prior to this turn I think I only killed two warriors and three or four chariots. So now the score in this war is, I've lost one Axeman, while he's lost two warriors, two skirmishers, and seven or eight chariots. 

Perhaps more importantly, he only has two cities. I will check my earlier screenshots, I thought he had three? EDIT: he did have three before. The number down by the "score" display on the right is number of cities, right? Actually I cropped this screenshot too much to show it, but I'm sure I saw only two cities for him this turn. Can't check now since turn just rolled.
But regardless of whether he lost one or never made one, I think I may even be winning the long-term economic side of this conflict. Also, at least I have Buddhism, it's nice to have the je ne sais quoi of a religion. The culture bonus to defense may even have been important, allowing me to skimp slightly on garrisoning, who knows.

I offered Rekenner a ceasefire this turn. If he accepts, then I can start doing stuff like researching agriculture, building improvements, and founding a fourth city - while my army goes off to attack the Khmer to my northwest, who have a weaker army and five cities, and who is actually the bigger longer-term threat for that reason. Unless people pursue vendettas? Who knows. Of course it's possible the ceasefire will only make Rekenner butthurt, or he will try to attack Mateship while pillaging the road to it so I can't reinforce in time. That won't work because I have two workers to hand. Or he could just try to storm Assabiyah but the odds are very low.

[Charriu]

Yes that's the number of cities

[civac2]

If you want to go to war elsewhere offering a peace deal is better than a cease fire. You'll be safe for 10 turns from rekenner. Sometimes people actually declare war to try to get the enforced peace so they have a free hand elsewhere. Doesn't always work, of course.

[Tarkeel]

Because a cease fire is non-binding, it's often not taken as a gesture of goodwill, and more like "we will continue this war soon".

[BING_XI_LAO]

Killed two more road-pillaging chariots turn turn and re-linked my cap to the copper. So Rekenner has 1 chariot and 6 skirms left on the field (one of which has combat 1). I have another Cover Axeman, besides the one pictured northwest of copper, at 4.4 str on the copper. I won't be up for attacking 4 skirmishers on a hill, but I can now defend 3 tiles against that stack simultaneously.

I sent him a peace treaty, bit of a rude move to "spam" since I sent him a ceasefire last turn, but oh well. Also I just realised I sent Vanrober two "attack Rekenner" diplo offers when I should've been sending those to Bellarch if I remember who had the scout? That's a bit embarassing. At this point I don't want to send it to Bellarch anyway as my military screen says he has a moderate threat level.

I checked the UI segment that records kills and deaths - I've killed two warriors, 11 chariots, and 2 skirmishers in this war, for the loss of an axeman. Quite something!
I imagine Rekenner lost his third city to barbs or something? Kind of weird since he has skirms. Maybe it was an axeman that got lucky vs a flatland skirmisher.

[BING_XI_LAO]

Also I have the most soldiers in the game right now, while being dumpster tier on economics. Goodness, it'll really be something if i can go attack the Khmer - even though most of my troops are spearmen and I have Cover promotions. Hmm, maybe my army isn't so hot after all.