[SPOILERS] Out of retirement and into the fires of war. yuris125, Pitboss 68

[yuris125]

So the fastest possible axe we can get is eot T21. BW comes in on T19 and we revolt to slavery on the same turn, then on T20 we work the tiles to get the 5 hammers necessary to 1-pop-whip the axe on the following turn




I don't think earlier is possible - there's no queue upgrade shenanigans to be able to whip the same turn we come out of anarchy, is there?

Then finish Workboat while regrowing to size 3, and start the settler at 3. Importantly, once at size 3, on T24 we need to work high hammer tiles




This gives us enough hammers to have the settler at 70/100 on T28, giving us an option to 1-pop-whip it and speed up the 2nd city by a turn - once again it's due on T30 with this plan. Now, we would be whipping off a good tile (improved fish) to speed up the settler by a single turn, so I'm not sure it's worth it. Bit it's better to have the option

Alternatively, we can grow to 4 before starting a settler, which we can then double whip. With a chop and a double whip the 2nd city is settled on T31 - don't see a way to shave a turn here - but we have the overflow to instantly complete another axe, or a workboat. This is probably the safest option, I'll play around further and see if I can find a way to go back to T28 for settler completion / T30 for settling

[Tarkeel]

I don't think earlier is possible - there's no queue upgrade shenanigans to be able to whip the same turn we come out of anarchy, is there?

Warriors will upgrade to spears in queue IIRC.

[yuris125]

Yeah Nauf mentioned that if we wanted more warriors we couldn't research Hunting or they would queue upgrade to spears, so that was my assumption. I don't think many people will go for early chariots this game, with AH being expensive, the only AH food resource jungled, and chariots not benefitting from Agg, so higher power of axes is way more valuable right now

[yuris125]

Nauf, any thoughts on attacking Commodore's scout next turn if he doesn't move it away?




Odds are 64% this turn, will be lower next turn as he gets another fortification bonus, but should still be around 60%

If we want to attack, I'd rather do it earlier than later, so that we have time to heal up before his archer shows up. And if we lose, our position is not substantially worse

[naufragar]

Odds are 64% this turn, will be lower next turn as he gets another fortification bonus, but should still be around 60%

The odds will be exactly 50-50 next turn. If we win, we can promote the warrior to Woodsman 1. We'd secure a crucial tile and get vision on any Commodorian advances. If we lose? I don't actually know what we lose besides the warrior. If Comm already has an archer in bound, we'll feel the lack. I think even at coinflip odds, that spot is so crucial to our safety in the east. Either way, do know that we'd be attacking at even odds.

[yuris125]

I don't think Commodore has an archer out yet, I didn't see it show up on power graphs. When I simmed his start, T16 (so this turn) was when the archer was ready (although as I said it was unoptimised) - since he plays after us, we might see it in the demos next turn

I'm happy to take even coinflip odds - if anything, I hoped you would have an argument to talk me out of it Didn't think the odds would be so much worse next turn, think they only dropped by 3% or so between last and this turn. But if you're also in favour of taking it, I'll do it next turn whatever the odds are

It is sad truth that this is probably the best use we will get out of our first military unit. But that's the way it is, warriors (especially non-agg warriors) just won't be of much use this game

[yuris125]

Coinflip it is. I guess while the strength of the units is unequal, the stronger unit has a substantial edge, as we saw from 64% odds last turn. This turn it is indeed a straightforward 50/50

Which we lost. Oh well

[naufragar]

Oh well. It'll even out over the course of the game.

The BUG interface shows the adjusted unit strengths, so I saw it was 2 vs. 1.95. Galleys get similar odds (66%) against galley in coast (+10% defense). Tiny differences make big swings.

Nothing for it, but to watch out for the archer and wait for another opportunity.

[yuris125]

Yeah I have the scout on the spices moving back and forth, we will spot any incoming archer as early as possible without appearing hostile (attacking Commodore's scout doesn't count as hostile, right?). And I will go with the plan of revolting to slavery and whipping an axe immediately once BW is ready

[yuris125]

T19

Here comes Commodore's archer. Right about on schedule




Seeing the way the archer is facing, it looks like Commodore might want to move towards our scout, to the south of the lake. Which I'm perfectly fine with. If he goes straight for the hill where his scout is, we can't beat him, we still need to switch to slavery and whip an axe. We will need two axes to get that archer off the hill if that's what he does. However, if we encourage him to move towards our scout, he may go for it

So I'm going to delay slavery revolt by a turn. Maybe this way he does feel safer about moving the archer towards our scout, and not straight for the disputed hill. I did a quick sim and it anything revolting after we grow to 3 works out better for us, so it may be the optimal play anyway