Commodore
Fin/Imp (grrr) of Byzantium (wheel/myst)
-1 gold
-Grocer
-Tile C is plains and not grass
-No village
Here's his start:
Commodore has the "Lewwyn start" where all his worker can do is road for the first 4 turns. He'll need to micro a bit (workshop and all that) to get Hunting in 4 and not 5, but for purposes of this preview I'm assuming he'll get that right. Side note: I do love the workshop on the floodplains change as it makes "unfarmed corn vs floodplains" a very real discussion, where 2/1/1 has greater raw yield than 3/0/0, but 3/0/0 prioritizes all-important growth. In general though, the FP is the right choice here when it speeds up a tech.
So anyways, I simmed out this start in a somewhat unscientific manner - meaning I just used my instinct on the best choice based on doing several of these. Just made one pass through... But for him I end up with an EOT15 settler (as opposed to 14 for me) which is actually not too shabby. The following worker came out at EOT18 which is two turns behind my pace. Also should be noted this results in a size 3 capital rather than my size 4 capital, so he'd be behind on the growth curve as well. Again, no scout, so he'll be behind on crucial map intel as well. Overall it's a quicker start than Lewwyn largely because of the Imperialistic trait, but it still lags behind the pace a bit. In fact, the difference between this start and Lewwyn pretty much is just the Imperialistic trait.
It also should be noted that since he passed on Spiritual, Commodore will have the worst map knowledge out of anyone in the early game. This may end up being meaningless, but if he misses a crucial resource or makes a poor decision on his 2nd/3rd cities as a result of lack of map knowledge, that could really hurt him.
So the gist of it is I've gained 2+ turns on Commodore here (the + represents the extra city size -> bigger tile yields and more whip potential), but in contrast to Lewwyn, he doesn't have an advantage like Terraces that could help him catch up. We both share an Imperialistic trait, but my ability to get cheap workers and granaries is an advantage he can't duplicate. In theory, I should be able to outpace him. It'll be my job to take advantage of that. If I'm not first to 3, 4, 5 cites (and on) then that's my fault.
From a meta perspective, I don't know a ton about Commodore. I didn't spend much time here for the last 3-4 months, and during that time he was highly active so I missed out on a lot of opportunities to figure out his style. In contrast, I remember him commenting numerous times on my PBEM14 thread so he certainly knows what I'm like - or at least moreso than I know about him. All that said, all signs point to him being a very competent player. That makes him a legitimate threat to win.
One minor note I'll make about Commodore's start and the capital in general is that it's not a great "Financial" capital. Particularly Commodore's start with tile C being a plains tile... I mean how many cottages can he even build here? He has just two riverside cottages available to him, as well as only 4 other grassland tiles if you don't count the stone. Really, this is a wonderful Joao capital, but not a great capital for a Financial leader. One of the benefits of Victoria is being able to better support the REXing with boosted commerce, but on a meh commerce capital, is it really that big of an advantage? I say no. Same goes for Lewwyn.
PREDICTION: Like Lewwyn, Commodore may slip behind a bit early. While he doesn't have Terraces to help him out, he DOES have the benefit of an Imperialistic trait. I should be able to out-expand him; however, his Financial trait likely means he'll be able to better afford leveraging his Imperialistic trait. I think Commodore will keep pace enough to be a real threat in this game. I'll also enjoy killing him the most because he stole my choice.