Mikehendi Pitboss 16 Thread

[Mikehendi]

This turn's scout movement did not find very much, just another grassland river in the northeast. We did finishing Mining tech and take the top spot on the scoreboard temporarily.

Bantams grew his capital to size 2 on this turn and is doing something weird. I'm pretty sure that it is impossible to finish a worker and then grow to size 2 in the first 13 turns of the game. (Even if he gets 7 production/turn that is 9 turns needed to finish worker, and it is impossible to grow the 22 food needed for size 2 in just four turns when working unimproved tiles. There is no 6 food unimproved tile!) He didn't go work boat first because Persia has Agriculture and Hunting starting techs. What in the world does that opening look like?



The hill tile revealed a lot more terrain, floodplains and lake tiles and a banana buried under the jungle. There is also a lion up there above the lake, not in range to be dangerous. We have to choices for the scout next turn: be conservative and move onto the banana (which doesn't reveal much) or go NW-NW and take our chances. I lean a little bit towards the risky move because we get a guaranteed free win on Prince difficulty against our first barb animal. Maybe Yuris feels differently. We will probably wind up on the plains forest hill NW of the banana in two turns regardless.

Expansive civs who went worker first probably finish their first tile improvement this turn. We will finish our corn farm next turn and hit size 2 shortly thereafter. Still very slow early game, starting to get a little more interesting.

Happy Thanksgiving to all readers.

[Mikehendi]

I'm back from Thanksgiving travel. Had a wonderful time with the family, I hope that everyone else who celebrates the holiday did as well. I was able to log into the game over the weekend, even though the connection was very slow. It looks like we will be up and running again once the week begins.



I made the safe play and moved the scout to the bananas tile. It will move NE onto the forest hill next turn and reveal much of that northern river. Basically, revealing a few more tiles this turn would be nice, but losing the scout would be a complete disaster. And just because we get a free win against the first barbarian doesn't make our scout invincible, we could move next to two lions or something. It's better to be safe.



Demographics are in very good shape. The corn farm finished and tied us with two other teams for most food. Production and GNP also look good. Capital will grow in 2 more turns.

[Mikehendi]

This was a very noteworthy turn.



First of all, we met a scout from Bantams up in the north. He is playing as Suryavarman (EXP/CRE) of Persia, and we noted earlier that he was doing kind of a strange start. Bantams is another newcomer to Realms Beyond who apparently was a player on the Multiplayer ladder. He has not created a spoiler thread in this forum, and I do not know very much about him. While starting next to a Creative civ is never fun, I think that we could have done worse in the player draw here. We'll soon know more information as espionage points roll in and give us graphs.

Also very important for this turn was the discovery of grassland pigs just north of the river. This will make for a great city that shares the pigs and the ivory along with the capital. Obvious second city? Well I'm not exactly sure. The problem is that we likely won't be able to research Animal Husbandry tech in time for the second city's founding. SevenSpirits wrote over in the General Forum thread about simulating starts that there are three key early game techs: Animal Husbandry, Bronze Working, and Pottery. Every civ needs all of them, and much of the early game is deciding in what order to pick them up. I think that he is correct, and it plays into our start here.

Right now, we are on the Bronze Working path - we've already researched Mining tech. We are also kind of set up to research Pottery next, so that we can lay down some cottages for the capital to work with its huge food surplus (+9 food with corn and clams). But that means that we won't get Animal Husbandry tech until roughly Turn 40, which is too late for the second city to use. Alternately, we could go immediately for AH tech after Bronze Working, but then we'll be delayed in building any cottages for the capital. (Remember too that we want to research Hunting before AH if at all possible, for the bonus beakers and because we have an ivory tile at the capital.) Basically, the various pieces don't fit together the way that we would like to plant a second city next to the pigs tile. And I don't think that we want to swap off the BW path after we're roughly halfway into it either, that doesn't feel like a good idea.

Anyway, I'm going to wait until next turn before doing anything. We can move the scout into the jungle tile south of the bananas and see if there's anything else that pops up in terms of resources. I'll put all this terrain into our sandbox and see what I can come up with from there. We might do well to go with Yuris' idea for a city two east of the sheep that borrows the corn from the capital, and then a third city in the pigs/ivory area, all of which are located along fertile grassland rivers and can share tiles with one another. Something like that might be a very good start for us.

[yuris125]

what's the ETA on the first settler? I agree we shouldn't switch from BW to AH, but with AH resources all around us, I definitely would consider going AH next. Why are we set on Pottery next?

[Mikehendi]

I'll post about the current turn first and then look at civ planning.



Moving the scout revealed a midsized lake with a clams resource inside. This gives us a clear city spot west of the pigs. The scout from Bantams moved off to the east after taking this picture and hasn't found our capital's borders yet.



Our capital grew to size 2 this turn, which was one of the first to do so. (Retep actually whipped his capital this turn from size 2 back down to size 1, so there are only three capitals that have grown for the moment. He probably went work boat followed by whipping out a worker.) In our capital, we pick the corn and clams tiles for one turn. This gets us to 15 production into a work boat at the end of this turn. Then we swap over to the ivory tile and get 5 hammers/turn for the next three turns, growing to size 3 and completing the work boat together at the end of Turn 20.



All of this temporarily puts us in an outstanding Demographics picture. For one turn, we are alone in first in score, first in GNP, first in Production, and first in Food. We will enjoy it while it lasts.

[Mikehendi]

OK, now on to civilization planning. The basic reason why we want to research Pottery next is so that our workers have something to do. Bronze Working finishes at the end of Turn 24. If we go immediately for Animal Husbandry (skipping Hunting), then it takes 9 turns to research and finishes at the end of Turn 33. That would indeed work well for a second city to be planted at the pigs resource. But then our workers would basically have nothing to do for another 6 turns while we research Pottery tech, and we still wouldn't have Hunting tech available to improve the ivory tile. We would end up building a lot of roads and that's not very useful. Because we are playing as a FIN leader and have lots of grassland river tiles available, we should play to our strengths and get them in play immediately. The FIN riverside cottage is the best non-resource tile in the game, after all.

Because our second city gets founded before we have Animal Husbandry tech, we're extremely limited in where it can go. There are only two viable spots, in my opinion: two east of the western sheep, to share the corn tile with the capital, and down in the south by the rice tile. All of the other options are worse; we don't have AH tech to make use of any of the pigs or sheep, and the only other corn tiles are non-river, clearly inferior to the riverside rice. I experimented a bit with both possible locations yesterday:



Here's a potential opening settling near the western sheep tile. This location has the advantage of getting out to a fast start; the second city grows very quickly by borrowing the corn tile and sharing some cottages with the capital. I founded the third city next to the pigs on Turn 44 and had the pigs pastured by the end of Turn 45. Research was Pottery -> Hunting -> Animal Husbandry -> Mysticism -> Polytheism (if a religion still available). On paper, this looks like a strong choice.



Here is the alternate setup using the southern rice. In a short term comparison, this opening clearly comes out behind. The second city hasn't grown as quickly (because the rice had to be farmed as opposed to working a corn tile immediately), and the third city was planted three turns later, on Turn 47 instead of Turn 45. So why even consider this location? Well, honestly... I still believe this is the better choice overall, believe it or not. The sheep location for the second city pulls ahead short term, but only because it's stealing the corn tile away from the capital. It's very much a case of robbing Peter to pay Paul, if that makes sense. Without the corn tile, the capital is greatly weakened because it has to fall back on just the clams tile; it drops down to +4 food while working the ivory, and a mere +3 food if it works the ivory and hill mine. In contrast, with the southern city having its own food resource to power its own growth, the capital can work corn + clams + ivory in this second case and still be growing at a robust +8 food. And this comparison isn't entirely fair either - I cheated somewhat in the first example by building a settler before a third worker. I went the opposite direction in the second case, and I think the civ was stronger overall.

Long story short: I felt as though the civ was in a much better position when I played ahead past Turn 50 in the second example. Having the second city borrow the corn tile from the capital creates too much of a Catch-22 situation, where the second city needs the corn to be effective (it's a completely resourceless city early on if it doesn't take that tile!) but then taking the corn turns the capital into a really mediocre city. There's one situation where the first case would be much better: if we successfully founded Buddhism or Hinduism in that city around Turn 45-50. Then we would get a free border expansion, could hook up the sheep tile, and we'd come out ahead. However, I don't think we can rely on that sort of thing. And finally, this could all change when copper and horses pop up on the map as well.

I will go back and look at this in more detail today. I'll test out a rapid tech to Animal Husbandry instead of Pottery and see what that looks like. For the moment though, I honestly think that we do the best to settle the rice spot. We are pretty much forced to settle an Agriculture resource with our second city, and that is the best place to do so.

[yuris125]

As you know, I disagree. The southern city doesn't help expansion, and is not a great spot overall. We have most land to the north and east, and we should expand in those directions in the early game

Stealing a food resource from the capital is not a bad thing, it helps the second city to start faster, and use more tiles faster. Slowing down capital's growth is not the end of the world, especially if it can produce things with hammers rather than whip. We do need to think of a way to pop borders of the 2nd city, and I like the idea of making it holy

What's the ETA on Settler and what's the ETA on BW?

[Mikehendi]

I will split this into two posts again. First an update on the current turns and then the planning.



We switched the second population point onto the ivory forest this turn. Work boat and growth to size 3 both complete in three turns. The scout is moving to explore that northwest corner, and will meet Goreripper's civ when his (Creative) capital expands its borders on Turn 25. Then we'll head straight north and try to find the Bantams capital.



No change with the capital this turn. There is a barb lion across the lake; hopefully it moves away to the north so that we can move onto the plains hill tile next turn.

A whole bunch of teams grew their capitals to size 2 this turn, six of them in total. They must have similar starting resources, or else it's a huge coincidence. In any case, they seem to be starting more slowly than us which can only be a good thing.

[Mikehendi]

Now on to the civ planning. Rather than beat around the bush, I'll go right ahead and say this: I think that you're wrong, Yuris. Having tested several different alternatives, we truly do come out ahead by settling the rice tile first. Let me go through three cases. (To answer your question from the last post, we discover Bronze Working at the end of Turn 24 and settle the second city on Turn 33 in every case mentioned here.)

Case One: Settling the pigs spot for the second city. This one is not a realistic option. It forces us to go Animal Husbandry as our next tech after Bronze Working, and that causes all sorts of problems for our workers. Under this plan, we discover AH tech at the end of Turn 33, and yes, we can immediately connect the pigs resource at the second city. But then what do we do with the workers? There are no forests to chop at the second city, and only an awkwardly placed forest S-SE of the capital left. I guess we could build a mine on the plains hill tile at the capital, or builds roads, but neither one of them is a good option. What we really want to be doing is building cottages at this time, which we cannot do because we don't have Pottery tech.

That's the problem with the AH tech path, it delays Pottery tech for too long. Researching AH tech delays Pottery by 9 full turns, and it doesn't complete until the end of Turn 39. (This is even worse if we research Hunting tech before AH, the way that we'd want to do for the beaker discount. That delays Pottery by 12 turns, not finishing until the end of Turn 42.) The capital and the second city will grow, and there's no improved tiles for them to grow onto. Nor can we start a granary in either city, due to the lack of the requisite tech. I played this out to about Turn 45, and it was a real waste. I genuinely do not recommend this path.

Case Two: Settling the nearby location two east of the sheep tile. I've already explained in detail why I don't think that this location works very well. Instead of going over these arguments again, I'll post a picture comparison from Turn 55:



Case Three: Settling the southern location next to the rice. Here's where that one stood on Turn 55:



Both cases founded the third city at the same spot next to the pigs, taking place on Turn 44 in the second case and Turn 46 in the third case. At first glance, these two look pretty even, with the second case maybe a little bit ahead. After all, it's about a turn ahead in research and the second and third cities are slightly more developed in the second case. This impression would be incorrect. The third case only looks similar because it starts out more slowly, due to the fact that the rice tile has to be farmed down in the south (as opposed to the second city immediately grabbing the corn tile away from the capital). The third case started out slower, but is rapidly accelerating ahead, and will soon leave the second case behind in the dust. It's already caught up as of Turn 55, and will only get further ahead in the future.

This is due to the fact that the third case has a massively stronger capital than the second case. When I played this out in the second case, the capital was virtually crippled by losing the corn tile. I was able to get it to size 4, but that was about it. You only get +5 food from the clams tile, and that dropped to +4 food with the ivory tile, or even +3 food with the ivory and hill mine. There was no potential for growth there, nor could I use the whip at all due to the lack of a granary and small food surplus. So I fell back on having the capital push out a worker and a settler, slow-building them at 12 foodhammers / turn, not using Slavery civic at all. Alternately, if I dropped the mines and worked cottages, the city would grow but it would be substantially behind the run in the third case (like, not even close). In other words, I'm basically cheating in the second case to make it look good in the short run, by pumping out settlers without bothering to get a granary in place. And this case is still losing out.

Build path (after first settler): settler -> worker -> settler (growing to size 4 and finishing a warrior in the middle somewhere)

Now compare that to the capital in the third case. Because the second city gets its own food resource and doesn't have to steal the corn from the capital, I have far more food and a much more robust capital. The basic idea was to work corn + clams + ivory at all times and never drop below size 3, which together produces +8 food and 6 hammers per turn, then grow onto all cottages from there and use the whip liberally. I was able to build the same settler and worker as in case two, but ALSO complete a full granary at the same time, while growing to size 6 in the process instead of stagnating at size 4. In fact, on the exact turn pictured (Turn 55), the capital is about to triple-whip its settler to completion, which will result in the fourth city being founded on Turn 57. The second case will be three turns slower to get the fourth city settled (Turn 60), and will be even slower from there, because the capital has no granary and isn't making use of the whip.

Build path (after first settler): worker -> granary (size 5) -> settler (double whip with max overflow into granary) -> finish granary -> warriors (size 6) -> triple whip settler

Overall, the capital is so much stronger that it makes this a better plan. What we're trying to do with our second city is grab a location that will get up and running quickly and support itself. Unfortunately, we don't do that by siphoning away the strongest tile from our capital city. As I said yesterday, we're stealing from Peter to pay Paul. Ideas like "settle towards opponents to claim land" are good in the abstract, but they don't work in this particular case. We should play the map, and it dictates where we need to settle.

I think this would be more clear by looking at the sandbox save file. I will be happy to email it to anyone who is interested. I cannot use the forum attachment feature here, and Imgur doesn't accept Civ4 savegame files.

[Ichabod]

Good reporting. All those coins in the sandbox look really nice.