WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[BRickAstley]

Tally as of post 803:

Lynch votes
6 votes: scooter (Charriu, Commodore, pindicator, GeneralKilCavalry, superdeath, naufragar)
2 votes: GeneralKilCavalry (Serdoa, Rowain)
1 votes: pindicator (scooter)

Voting history:

SCOOTER

pindicator

scooter

Pindicator

Scooter

scooter

pindicator

scooter

Scooter

scooter

Scooter

Cyneheard

Cyneheard

GeneralKillCavalry

GeneralKilCavalry

A little less than 15 hours remaining.

Wishing you and your family safety and peace, pindicator.

[scooter]

Stay safe, man. Hope your friends and family are able to as well.



I'll swap to GeneralKilCavalry since there's seemingly more appetite there. As for pindicator, I've thought about some of Serdoa's other possible explanations. The scenario where he's telling the truth seems truly impossible to me. However, I suppose it's possible he's a lying SK rather than Werewolf. I'm not sure that's much better? But if there's an interest in kicking the scooter/pindicator can down the road, I'll vote for GKC I guess. I'd prefer pindicator, though.

[scooter]

I'll admit I've skimmed a lot of GKC's posts this game because his game-long feud with naufragar was kind of dull and low-value and pretty much boiled down to they don't like each other's posting styles. So I used Serdoa's post as a handy reference to look at a few things I didn't remember. A lot of it was dull or note noteworthy, but clearly I missed a couple things in my focus to reply to a few other people during this day phase.

This is why I buy commodore's argument. If cyne was shot by vig, our first impression ought to be that neither pindicator nor scooter can claim they shot him in the night (they didnt vote for him!). They're exactly meeting this expectation. And if scooter were vig, with the knowledge that he didn't shoot, why wouldn't he have emphasized the point that cyne's death is strange? There would have been ways of hinting at it without revealing role. Idk, this needs to be examined.

This is a super bizarre remark. I played my entire voting strategy around the idea that the end of day 1 votes (with Cyneheard on the block) and subsequent death was weird! I've been talking about it constantly all game long. Why do you think that was? Because I knew it wasn't me! Pindicator is also claiming it wasn't him. No other vig is stepping forward. None of that makes any sense. Here's my post from right after the night actions.

First, from a meta standpoint, I'm pretty confused as to what happened. I can piece together some of it, but I was under the impression this was a low-power game, but those results hint at quite a lot of powers out there. Either that or we just ... blew through them all at once? I'm a bit too out of date on WW roles to know more - I had to look up Hider on the wiki to have any idea what that was.


As for the actual interesting stuff... I'm not sure what to think. It's weird to me that Cyneheard was a wolf, but he kept his vote on Superdeath given how tight that vote was, and he could reasonably go with a "I'm just saving myself" vote on Bob. Superdeath isn't quite cleared, but he now seems like one of the safer town bets. I feel pretty good about the towniness of Meiz, Serdoa, and Naufrager because their votes on Cyneheard were really unnecessarily risky if they were wolves with how close it came. I'm not quite ready to ascribe the same benefit of the doubt to Lewwyn, who switched last-second when it ultimately didn't matter, which I could see both a villager or a wolf doing for different reasons.


The obvious wolf play was to vote for Bob since Cyneheard was up for a vote, but of course the wolves are not all going to do that. Clearly Cyneheard didn't. Feels nearly certain to be 1-2 wolf votes on Bob. We might reasonably guess there are no wolf votes on Cyneheard because it was close, and there were other options. There's one big caveat to that, though. If AdrienIer is a wolf, that might put them in an awkward spot of not wanting to all pile on Bob, but not wanting to get one of their own lynched if #2 and #3 were both up there. In that case, you might see them spread out a bit more and hold their breath.

I think it's pretty obvious here that I was really confused. I still had a shot, so I didn't want to be too obvious and get caught, but I thought for sure I was the only one with this power until the Cyneheard thing happened. I thought this was a low-power game, and yet I just saw 3 power roles die, I knew I had a power role, and one of the folks dying seemingly just died to... someone with the same power as me or something? It set me off on the wrong path, but you can see hints of it all over the place. However, I don't think you actually looked. Did you just ascribe something to me that wasn't true because I'm an easy mislynch and you need a reason to have yet another day of your vote on a villager? Seems to me you're doing the same thing as Commodore - trying to bury me with evidence that equally implicates pindicator.


The best example of this? These two posts are absolutely amazing.

I don't like scooter or pindicator either. So at the end of the day, I need to see more arguments and conversation from these people before I can vote. It looks like the main story will be scooter's wild role claim, and the fallout from that.

SD, why the hell are you voting for pindicator right now? We need to keep the pressure on scooter .

These posts were posted 8 minutes apart. No other player posted in between these at all. You went from "I need other players to help me decide between these two" to chastising another player for not voting for me in EIGHT MINUTES. What kind of a joke is that?

[scooter]

Chevalier, you going to vote for someone?

[Rowain]

Guys, I don't know if you are aware with the fire situation in western Oregon today but I've got multiple friends and family members with fires nearby. I don't know how much time I'm going to spend here over the next few days

Good Luck to you and your family & friends

[Serdoa]

@pindicator: Stay safe.

------------

I had to make a dentist appointment on short notice and won't be around much today. I try to check in from time to time, but I'm out for the next 2 hours most likely and not sure how I'll feel afterwards, most likely have to do root-canal stuff .

[Rowain]

@pindicator: Stay safe.

------------

I had to make a dentist appointment on short notice and won't be around much today. I try to check in from time to time, but I'm out for the next 2 hours most likely and not sure how I'll feel afterwards, most likely have to do root-canal stuff .

Ouch . Good Luck with that.

[Charriu]

I'm done re-reading scooter and others and came to a conclusion. But first let me say that I totally agree with Chevalier here:

Be safe, my guy. And all your loved ones. RB werewolf comes second (possibly even third!).

The game is not important. Take care.

Now back to the game. At the start of the day it looked like there were two main suspects: pindicator and scooter. Let me start with pindicator:

First of all it is really amazing how many similarities one can find between scooter and pindicator. Others pointed out how scooter was implicated by dead villagers, but one can find similar accusations from Gaspar (#101), Lewwyn (#650) and meiz (#450)(#582). But let's look into his actual posts. 

He made an honest mistake at (#105), I do want to believe him there and give him the benefit of the doubt as we all aren't perfect. Still it adds to the bigger picture. Then we have this post (#367). What I find interesting about that is that near the day 1 deadline he does not mention Cyneheard. Still not that big of a deal though, but another small thing adding to the big picture.

As we all know he started the bus on Adrien on day 1, who turned out to be a villager. This of course is bad for him, but to be fair Adrien really made it easy to be framed.

Today he claimed to be a vig shooting scooter, while end of day 2 he did not express doubts on scooter (#647). I've asked him about that and this was his answer (#792). I still have my doubts about that claim, because it's easy to be made.

Overall I like his posts today as pressured other people.



So what about scooter:

All lot has been already said about scooter in the past 48 hours. He was being implicated by dead players as Commodore already said. Then we have the big fallout by Lewwyn. There is a lot in there that made scooter look bad including Lewwyn's death tonight. Lewwyn's big claim (#629) was that scooter was dishonest about voting for Adrien to that I want to add that scooter did express doubts towards Adrien very early on here (#205) in his last sentence: "I agree with whoever it was that described AdrienIer's game so far as "a bit tidy," but I don't have much else on him than that." Still there is a lot to doubt there, as this post (#374) can be interpreted as a safe for Cyneheard.

I've also asked him about some things today, but his answer didn't really present any new information I think (#735).

Then of course the thing that throws a lot of suspicion on scooter is the fact that he voted twice for a villager so far. I also don't exactly like his way he answered and defended himself today. It just feels a little bit odd at times.




Summary:

I have to say I don't exactly trust both of them at this point. There's just a lot speaking against both and if we could lynch two people a day I would lynch both. Now there is one thing I do want to mention here real quick and that is that both crossposted their vig claim. To me this looks like only one of them is a wolf, because why would the wolves coordinate such a strange move. With so many kills at night I also find the theory that one of them is a SK and the other a wolf very likely.

To end this with whom I vote today, that would be 55% scooter and 45% pindicator. So I will stay on scooter unless some other world-shaking event occurs. Voting two villagers in a row; the fallout with Lewwyn; plus all the other small things are just a little bit too much.

[naufragar]

Sorry to hear that, Pind. Stay as safe as you can.

GeneralKilCavalry

Charriu, I think everybody shares or at least expresses your view. Pindicator and Scooter are both scummy, both, frankly, for pretty much the same reasons (Day 1 into Day 2 Adrien stuff). Scooter referred to moving to GKC as “kicking the can down the road,” but that’s not it at all. Of the pair, I’m currently leaning towards Scooter as the worse. If we lynch Scooter and he turns up wolf, what next? We still have Pindicator, who remains wolfy for all the reasons brought up today. If Scooter flips town, we still have Pindicator, and everybody who pushed Scooter can hide behind the fact that they were repeating Lewwyn’s arguments. We have our debate mapped out for two (in-game) days. Do we think night actions are going to shed light on that? Because I don’t think revealing either person’s alignment solves the problem of the other.

Others are now pointing out GKC’s wolfiness. Good. I disagree with people calling Superdeath GKC’s wolf buddy. When Superdeath made his serious appearance in D1, GKC was constantly cajoling him to get into the spirit and give him (GKC) an alternative lynch target (references available upon request). GKC has tried to buddy up to Superdeath (not with, since people like to jump on preposition usage). Superdeath already voted for Scooter, so GKC can assume he’d be open to voting for Scooter again. This is why when SD votes for Pindicator, GKC doesn’t mention anything about SD’s previous vote, he just says “SD, why the hell are you voting for pindicator right now? We need to keep the pressure on scooter .” Let me quote GKC (two of these have been quoted before):

I don't like scooter or pindicator either. So at the end of the day, I need to see more arguments and conversation from these people before I can vote. It looks like the main story will be scooter's wild role claim, and the fallout from that.

SD, why the hell are you voting for pindicator right now? We need to keep the pressure on scooter .

For the same reasons as early day1, and I want to increase pressure on him over the role claim tbh. I'm not sure 100% how to treat his interactions today, but I want to carry over my earlier suspicions.

(As noted, 8 minutes between quote 1 and quote 2.) Quote 3 is GKC explaining his vote. This is a cover-your-ass move. Nobody was on Scooter for early day 1 stuff; we’re all on him for late d1 Adrien hesitation going into day2 Adrien lynch. GKC isn’t making an argument. He’s flashing his anti-Scooter credentials. He wants to pressure Scooter on his role claim, when, unless I missed something, Pindicator made the exact same claim.

Ok, let’s say you agree with me that GKC is a wolf. Town is being funneled down a two day path: Scooter or Pindicator lynch today, then the other gets lynched or at least takes up the majority of our oxygen tomorrow. Resist that dichotomy. Pop a wolf that the wolf team isn’t holding up as a sacrifice. Use GKC’s alignment to read into the Pind/Scooter fight.

[Charriu]

Ok, this peaked my interest, especially that 8 minute difference. I would like to see those references you mentioned, nauf.

And of course I would like to see some statements about this from GKC, preferably before the day ends.