Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[Gold Ergo Sum]

OMG, I am like 300 posts behind because I am going to have to re-read a bunch of old ones.

Looks like a wolf got pwned though! :neenernee

to Ichabod. I thought Selrahc had been acting weird, but I didn't really think he'd turn out to be a wolf. Some of you guys are way better at this than me apparently.

I thought I was going snowboarding tomorrow, but my wife backed out on me, so I think I will be around all day. I will get caught up and try to post something useful for a change.

[Rowain]

He was online the whole time though, as was I. If he was watching he saw what I saw. No need to switch.

novice has it right when he says I would not have switched. Not even if it were necessary to save my neck.
One reason I hve already said in my answer to Meiz. another reason: I thought it a win-win situation. If I get lynched the village sees I'm a villager and maybe will come to the right conclusions.

I also don't like this "Yeah, if I'm wrong I'm dead - but this won't help the village either". I don't believe this. Either you will fight for yourself or - if you are a wolf - your comrades will come and state that it was a bad decision to vote PB off but now following it with another villager lynch would really be bad. Finally, some villagers will be swayed away from you, your comrades won't vote for you and you will still be alive.

I ask you this: Where were my comrades yesterday?

[Serdoa]

Together with you on PB? I have no clue Rowain. But I also never said that you are a wolf, only that the argument you brought "You can kill me" is easy to make for a wolf (as he will have backup and might not get lynched) and a bad argument all around for a villager because it means we lose another villager after we have already lynched one. If we play for the village to win, our goal should be

- to lynch the wolves
- not to get lynched

Going on a crusade (even if you may be right, I don't know) won't help. It will often keep the discussion focused on one or two players (the one on the crusade and his target), it will give great cover for the wolves and if we are unlucky it will cost us some villagers for no gain.

[zakalwe]

I ask you this: Where were my comrades yesterday?

Maybe I'm taking this out of context (I'm not sure I understand what the context actually is), but this sounds like a "why did nobody come to rescue me" kind of argument, which makes no sense. If you're a wolf then I'd say your comrades were most likely voting for various other candidates all along.

That's kind of the idea behind a late swing: if you were a wolf and got lynched by a sudden late swing, it's quite likely that your fellow wolves would be "left in the dust", as MNG put it, which can be a very effective way to expose them. Just look at how the remaining two wolves were suddenly exposed by Serdoa's last minute switch to lynch Scooter in WW2.

[Lewwyn]

That's kind of the idea behind a late swing: if you were a wolf and got lynched by a sudden late swing, it's quite likely that your fellow wolves would be "left in the dust", as MNG put it, which can be a very effective way to expose them. Just look at how the remaining two wolves were suddenly exposed by Serdoa's last minute switch to lynch Scooter in WW2.

Indeed, then who was exposed by Novice and Sandover's late swing? Those who were voting for Rowain, correct? Because if you use the Serdoa analogy, you are saying the wolves were actively trying to save one of their own by lynching someone else, ie: Rowain.

[zakalwe]

I'm not sure I follow you, Lewwyn. Are you saying my argument is invalid because it incriminates myself? I was talking of the hypothetical situation where Rowain is a wolf and we had confirmation of this (by having him lynched). In that case, we should look for wolves among those who were left in the dust. His claim that he was innocent because nobody tried to rescue him (if that was what he meant) made no sense to me.

As things actually played out, that's not what happened. Rowain's role remains unknown, and those who voted for him (including me) obviously cannot be cleared of suspicion, because we could have been trying to draw votes away from Selrahc.

I was basically just making a general comment about how late swings can be revealing.

[Rowain]

[quote=zakalwe]Maybe I'm taking this out of context (I'm not sure I understand what the context actually is),
[/quote]
You do

[quote=zakalwe] but this sounds like a "why did nobody come to rescue me" kind of argument, which makes no sense. [/quote]

Nope it is a direct answer to Serdoas assumption that I won't get lynched even if PB turns out to be a villager because my 'comrade'-wolves would make sure that I survive.

[quote=Serdoa]Together with you on PB? I have no clue Rowain.
[/quote]
You mean like Selrahc or you? Oh wait that didn't happen.

[quote=Serdoa] But I also never said that you are a wolf, only that the argument you brought "You can kill me" is easy to make for a wolf (as he will have backup and might not get lynched) and a bad argument all around for a villager because it means we lose another villager after we have already lynched one. If we play for the village to win, our goal should be

- to lynch the wolves
- not to get lynched

Going on a crusade (even if you may be right, I don't know) won't help. It will often keep the discussion focused on one or two players (the one on the crusade and his target), it will give great cover for the wolves and if we are unlucky it will cost us some villagers for no gain.[/QUOTE]

First of I never made the argument that you can lynch me. I said I'm sure that if PB gets lynched and turns out to be a villager that I will be the next one swinging from the Gallow. To that you answered: My comrades will save me. That you now try to twist my argument and even try to insinuate that the wolves were voting against PB makes me sure that you do howl for real in this game. And that you already try to save your precious PB for another day.
The highlighted part is extremly funny after the result of the last day isn't it?

[Meiz]

I'm going to post some of my thoughts already, because I'll be mostly away for the beginning of day 3. First of all I have to say, day 2 lynch was excellent for the village for many different reasons. Not only we lynched a wolf, but we got a lot of data and evidence out to the open. I can't imagine a situation where the info would not help us later. For me it was the best result I could imagine

I already explained my own reasons for my vote swinging (posts #702 and #705), so I'm not going to repeat it here. My suspicions at the moment are mostly against PB, so I can safely post them at night. There's no way that the wolves would kill PB, after all this drama

I'll start by stating a fact. Selrahc the wolf was high on the chopping block, and there were two notable persons who tried to switch attention away from him. Pocketbeetle and Rowain. I think one of them is a likely wolf. And if that is the case, we can read a lot from the results (one is wolf, so other is likely innocent, and other way around + plenty of voting behavior to analyze).

The fact that Selrahc voted against Rowain makes me lean towards PB's guilt. Let's assume that PB is revealed as a wolf. What info do we get from that?

First thing are the votes that moved away from PB on day 1. And then we have votes the against Rowain on day 2. PB is they key peace in both of the cases.

I'm not saying that all Rowain voters are likely wolves (I'm in the list as well! ). If I drop myself, Selrahc and PB out (assuming he's a wolf), there are Zakalwe, Serdoa and Jkaen left. But I'm not convinced at all that any of them would be wolves, since if PB is a wolf, there would already be 2 wolves voting for the same target. Three wolfs for one target is a possibility, but I have my doubts.

For Cull swing, I'll quote Rowain's summary on what happened:

2 hours before lynch MJW had 8 votes and PB 6 with Cull beeing relativly save with 2 votes.

During the next 50 minutes we have Roland uberfish and sandover switching to Cull with uberfish tying PB and Cull saying that PB would be more active as wolf.

Then 10 minutes before the lynch suddenly Mardoc and Scooter post within the minute against Cull (and shortly after I made a new tally) making it a 7 vs 7 standing.

And Uberfishes thoughts on the scenario, where PB is being saved:

Possible reasons for the late Cull swing:

2) Wolf attempt to save PB

PB wasn't in that much danger and MJW was a VERY easy candidate to switch to if they wanted to make sure someone who wasn't PB died. If you buy this theory though, then Lewwyn, Roland and myself should be suspicious.

If everyone would have switched to MJW, it would have been really suspicious. Assuming that Cull is a villager, there is no harm in spreading the votes, while getting them away from PB. After all if both are villagers, it doesn't matter which one dies.

My point is, lynching PB will give a lot of answers to the current mysteries (regardless the result, but more if he is a wolf), so I'm inclined to vote against him.

Another main suspect of mine at the moment is Sandover. Just based on his strange voting behavior on day 2:

Selrahc and Rowain are dead even on the lynch tallies (7v7), but Sandovers vote puts Rowain on the top. His reason for the vote doesn't make any sence, just following novice for whatever reason

Then novice flips against Selrahc out of the blue (excellent play btw.), and situation changes quickly other way around (Selrahc 8, Rowain 7). I bet sandover did not see that coming . Things look now really bad against Selrahc, so Sandover is left with no other choise than to follow novice again and vote against Sehlrac (again no reason given. Just trying to gain as little as he can from the surprise?).

Well, here are my thoughts. Does it make any sense?

[Bruindane]

As things actually played out, that's not what happened. Rowain's role remains unknown, and those who voted for him (including me) obviously cannot be cleared of suspicion, because we could have been trying to draw votes away from Selrahc.

The votes were drawn from novice and pocketbeetle to Rowain and ultimately to Selrahc. What I find amusing, Zakofonix, is that your vote for uberfish was ignored by the whole village, while pocketbeetle's suggestion for Rowain was immediately followed.

Remember the time pocketbeetlix took your harp and jammed on it?

[Lewwyn]

I was basically just making a general comment about how late swings can be revealing.

Yes, know. And I was making a specific point about what this latest lynch's late swings have revealed.

Are you being obtuse on purpose Mr. Furrypaws?