Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[Lewwyn]

Additionally, this game is long. Why would the wolves risk Sareln's deep cover so early by trying to take out the Owl? A spy is only useful if the ones being spied upon are NOT being tipped off!

[Gaspar]

First of all this is NOT the same as Selrahc. Selrahc was scried by the Owl, not by Sunrise. Sunrise himself has said there is a possibility he's the fool.

To address the issue of Sareln knowing the identity of the Owl from Day 1... by my recollection he only found out after Day 1, on Night 1. If I were a wolf and I wasn't sure whether the Owl was true or not, I wouldn't strike that first night. Who knows who else knows or whether its a trap to get me to kill a red herring. So they killed an easy target with little chance of backfiring.

This is a classic case of fitting the knowledge to what you already believe. They killed Cyneheard on night 1. A complete fishing expedition. If they already knew that A: There was an Owl and B: That Owl's identity there's no way you don't take that chance. The baner is likely to protect himself on day 1, since he's already known. Even if you fail, the chance to kill a scrying role right off the bat is too juicy to pass up. Just think, if they had hit the Owl on either of the first two days, Selrahc is still alive and devil-scrying right now.

Lets go to Night 2. Luddite is a mason and he's killed. Sareln knew he was a mason or suspected. Plus, Luddite sent a message to selrahc asking about the seer. Very large possibility that Sareln and Selrahc put that one together, no? So if you have a choice between an Owl who is contact with the baner, and you have a Mason who thinks he's safe, who is more likely to be protected by the baner? Also, who gives the bigger gain? You hit the Owl you kill a scrier that may or may not be believed. You kill a Mason you've killed half of a pair of a trsuted network and ended the Mason's ability to appeal to people in secrecy as a pair. So killing one Mason effectively destroys the mason's effectiveness. So Night 2 is an easy choice. Go for the completely unprotected mason instead of the possibly protected Owl.

I believe there is reason to believe that someone from the "trusted network" may have discussed luddites identity with Selrahc as well, mistakenly trusting him? I still firmly believe a dead Owl is more valuable than a dead Mason to the wolves as well. Proof: Owl scried the Devil this night. Life of Devil is more valuable to the wolves than the life of a mason. At least at this point, before we bollocks'd the whole thing up and revealed all but one of the power roles to the wolves in thread. I'll give you at this point that there may be fear the Owl is being protected. I still think you take that shot one of the two days.

Night 3. Things are heating up you've got a possible seer, an owl and a baner. WWs need to end a scrier's life, but we as villagers don't know for sure whether sunrise is a seer or a fool. The WW's do though. They know that Sunrise splits our protection options. Get a chance to kill the baner? Well he's dead now.

Obviously you try to kill the baner night 3. You know all the roles now, you kill baner -> seer -> owl unless you are able to patsy some villagers into not trusting their seer.

Look Kyan you cannot bury your head in the sand here. How do you know you're not the one being played? The Owl and Baner were connected since the beginning. The wolves wouldn't take a risk so early in the game. They needed to thin our numbers first. This is exactly what they did in WW1. Uberfish even mentions that the Wolves spent a ton of time trying to avoid baner protection. You can not use Sareln's knowledge as proof!

WW1 has little bearing on this game for behavior. Both sides will have learned from that game and changed behavior. Also, they're different players in both games, with different attitudes and skill-sets. WW1 also had less players and less roles, so the calculus changes heavily there.

Bottom line, we don't *know* a lot. But we do know our seer scried a wolf. That trumps everything else here. Kill the wolf, figure the rest out tomorrow. Anything that thins the enemies numbers is far more valuable than speculation. I'd bet my bottom dollar sunrise is the seer and uberfish is therefore a wolf. We have much to gain in finding out for certain that my bet is correct.

I agree 100% with Kyan (or perhaps more aptly, he agrees with me, since I posted it first) you and Roland are getting played here.

[Sareln]

I don't know what more I can do to convince you Lewwyn.

On day-1 I don't post that much and end up with a goodly handful of votes. I look at the discussion and don't see an obvious choice between Sandover and MJW so I stick my neck out to give the village an out if they want to take it. Fortunately, people stick to their guns and Sandover hangs. On night 1, the owl and the baner approach me. Later on in the night, the Baner says he's only going to cover himself, since "It's not likely the owl is going to be targeted tonight". Even if that were true, I think it :weed: for MJW to tell *anyone* what his actual defense choice will be that night!

On day 2 I vote with the bloc, on Kyan's urging. As others have elaborated at this point, we probably ended up choosing between two villagers in the end, a lose/lose.

On day 3 the network gets hauled into the open, but we still manage to nail Selrahc. Not much for me really to say during the whole affair, other than mention the day1 save and how it fits with a potential devil role. Selrahc ends up being the devil.

On day 4, we start out gunning for uber, and it should be an easy swing. Instead, folks have managed to second guess themselves into getting me up on the block again. I think the conversation has been good, but you're barking up the wrong tree hanging me. All you'll get out of it is a villager corpse and a win for the wolves who are probably laughing all the way to the bank at this point.

[Kyan]

Lewwyn and Roland- this is day 2 all over again. You guys get a theory or idea and fit your evidence around it. It's very easily done. Unfortunately, you then convince yourselves that this is now fact. For a perfect example- look at Zakalwe towards TT in WW1.

The main difference between day 2 and day 4 is that rather than go along with you guys and helping to secure the lynching, this time im standing my ground. You're wrong. Just look at who it is feeding you this information. Seriously. for the second night out of four, you're getting absolutely played.

As for sticking my head in the sand, not at all. Just trying to stop you two's tunnel vision from ruining this. As Irgy has requested and he is correct- i'll shut up about last night's kill now. F&I fucked us last night. You two are inadvertently doing the same today. Your theory proves NOTHING. All the wolves have to do is kill The Owl tonight instead and you two are left with a useless seer (because you dont trust him).

Since everythings getting put out in the open today, the reason that our seer is not believed is because his second scry of Dantski showed him to be a villager. BEFORE the scry, roland said, and i quote:

If Dantski isn't a wolf, then i'm the devil

This whole stupid fiasco of not trying to lynch a wolf has been exarcebated by a refusal to face up to our own mistakes. Meiz was a mistake, we will make more mistakes. Nobody's going to judge you for thinking Dantski was a wolf. I thought he was a wolf too, that's why i requested the scry on him. I was wrong, fair enough.

Serdoa- That's pretty much it, yeah. Day 1 luddite approached Roland and they got chatting. Luddite revealed all. I don't approve but it turned out to be a wise decision.

MJW told The Owl that Luddite was a mason (when he didnt know this) as a trick to try and catch him out. He figured he was a wolf fishing. This bit is covered in a previous posy by Lewwyn. The Owl believed this but wanted to check so 'watched' Luddite. This confirmed his innocence and The Owl was then brought into the network.

The reason Sunrise was the seer and not Selrahc:

-Selrahc has known villagers approach him and ask for confirmation which he ignored.
-Selrahc is a pro at these games. He's not stupid enough to not be trying to form a network. Yet, our widespread network had not heard a peep. As you yourself acknowledged, we had a good indication of most of the roles by this point.
-Sunrise was away due to technical problems. He couldn't scry and he couldn't build a network. Both myself and The Owl were heavily suspecting himself to be the seer BEFORE selrahc got watched and visited him.

I agree it's nothing set-in-stone but it was enough, a leap of faith was taken and we were rewarded with a devil kill. Serdoa, the reason i ignore half of your questions is because you seem to forget that the wolves read this thread. All of it. You ask me 24/7 to reveal every bit of information, every secret the villagers have.

If you *are* a villager, how bout you give me a break? It's not exactly worked out terribly so far has it? I don't want the wolves knowledge to be perfect. The reason you don't receive this information by PM is that you're such a pain by calling me out constantly that half of the 'known' villagers believe you to be a wolf.

[Rowain]

You guys jump at shadows way too much.

Better to jump too much then e-mailing/pm-ing secret roles to various people around. Besides if there exists the possibility one has to take it into account and think about it .

[Serdoa]

No issue with that Kyan. Apart from that I have the answers I always asked for. I just don't understand why you guys didn't post it - that would have made the whole thing much easier on villagers like me who do not simply believe because they are told too. And you would not have revealed anything more. Like I said, I don't want names or stuff or anything. Just a clarification how this network could be built the way it was in such a short time. Got that, even that I needed to combine several different posts for it but whatever. At least now I can put some more trust into you guys.

[Ug the Barbarian]

Lewwyn and Roland- this is day 2 all over again. You guys get a theory or idea and fit your evidence around it. It's very easily done. Unfortunately, you then convince yourselves that this is now fact. For a perfect example- look at Zakalwe towards TT in WW1.

The main difference between day 2 and day 4 is that rather than go along with you guys and helping to secure the lynching, this time im standing my ground. You're wrong. Just look at who it is feeding you this information. Seriously. for the second night out of four, you're getting absolutely played.

As for sticking my head in the sand, not at all. Just trying to stop you two's tunnel vision from ruining this.

Fully agree - we need to lynch Uberfish tonight. If, as you say, we loose the Owl and people continue to disbelief Sunrise we're going to loose this game to the wolves.

As I'm pretty sure the three other wolves are either Gasper, Sareln, Serdoa, Scooter, Roland and Rowain you can see how the discussion has gone this route.

[Serdoa]

Ug, I don't understand, who are the remaining 3 wolves?

Gaspar
Serdoa
scooter
Roland
Rowain
Sareln

I mean, those are 6 people so what you basically say is "I have no clue who is a wolf, I just name those which do look like they would most likely call me out on not providing anything".

[Gaspar]

Better to jump too much then e-mailing/pm-ing secret roles to various people around. Besides if there exists the possibility one has to take it into account and think about it .

I haven't really been part of that, as I do not have a secret role and have been under heavy suspicion, so I get bits and bobs here and there, but largely I can't speak to what information actually gets passed about behind the scenes. I agree that its a little annoying to have the game happen to you rather than be one of the movers and shakers actually making it happen.

That said, I disagree with your assessment. I'd rather our masons/owls/seers/baners/etc were keeping a whole lot more quiet than they actually are. The fact the identity of all those people is a secret to virtually no-one on day 4, with our baner dead no less, can be attributed only to poor play on our part. In particular, the inability of half of this village to trust anything without explicit proof in excruciating detail, spelled out so the wolves can read all of it, as well as the complete inability of the people in power roles in the village to keep their mouths shut and build consensus without revealing all. And even when all is revealed, we still want to invent inane scenarios like "Maybe we have a fool but no seer." Anything, ANYTHING to avoid feeling like one was left out of whatever conversation happened behind the scenes, y'know, the only place the wolves aren't.

I don't need to know how we got there. I don't necessarily concur with every move our power roles made. I do know that the only reasonable claim on the seer role has told us someone is a werewolf, and there is no alternative claim which holds as much weight as a scry from said person. Short of some dramatic revelation from fire&ice that he screwed up and forgot to assign a seer, any vote other than one for uberfish at this point is just some bizarre cocktail of pride, self-doubt and overthinking messing with the logic centers in your brain.

[Rowain]

I haven't really been part of that, as I do not have a secret role and have been under heavy suspicion, so I get bits and bobs here and there, but largely I can't speak to what information actually gets passed about behind the scenes.

It was NOT directed at you. It was plain simple my assessment that it is better to stay open minded that there might be a fool but no seer. And we both agree that a little bit less trust from some people would have been far better.


But: There are only 3 way to make sure over a claimed seers real role:
a) He dies and the death-message say seer/fool.
b)He scans someone as wolf who is executed and turns out to be villager(or vice versa although I doubt anybody would lynch someone the seer has proclaimed to be a villager ).

Does that mean we have to doubt anything sunrise says? No of course not. As long as he is not disproven I'll happily lynch anyone he names as screened wolf hence my vote.