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WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

I'm as caught up as I'm going to be, though it required some skimming.
I did a pretty solid readthrough of Commo, and I'm getting a reasonable set of scum leans. I feel he played the "beeboy" stuff out for a great deal of content without any real substance.

I don't like this, though i suppose it's possible I'm misreading. However here he votes for pindi

(October 2nd, 2020, 08:28)Commodore Wrote: EEE-*chirup* e'Eeeee ttickakakakatttata Eeeeee eee.
<Pindicator until I complete my reread. Were I a human I'd have meetings first though.

And then turns around saying he didn't vote for pindi? I'm very confused, and he never addresses this again.
(October 2nd, 2020, 10:53)Commodore Wrote: Iiiichirr tiiiii *chirup* kakakakakakakaka!
<My inability to parse GES' post was him refering to me voting for bee-boy, who was...Pindicator? I don't know! I didn't vote for Pindicator!>

Kakakakakakaka EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE E! E! E!
<Jabbz' vote seems to be because I get counted as voting twice thank to the translation gimmick need!>

Chiiiiii, titteeeeeEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE e'reeee EEEEyiii chi yiiii.
<Pindicator is a null read thus far, while Q seems to be varrible but I *really* want that Lewwyn read.>

Jumps on thrawn last minute, I assume outa self preservation.

Night is very low effort. Talks about himself being mislynched, still expresses confusion of GES's posts, and drops a vote on him at night, then again first thing in the day, but doesn't push anywhere else with significance once he drops that. and spends rest of time defending himself.

I get wanting to preserve yourself, and I appreciate letting us know what you did last night, but I don't see anything productive in the realm of scum hunting. I'm fully aware of the irony in saying that, but you're the one with his head on the block, not me.

There is a likely possibility that someone else could be more scummy at this point, but I feel reasonable in adding my name to the list of those voting for Commodore.
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@Commodore 886 - I was specifically referring to “I’ll worry about that when it’s time to think about it.” I’m trying to contrast not caring about the rest of the players because Thrawn was so scummy, versus now.

Also @Commodore, why did you claim? I thought Lewwyn misread your message to Jabbz, but then you went ahead and claimed anyways?!
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Still #815 Part 2 I have to speed up to check and vote at the end

Gaspar
I do not like his play as he feels like he is popping up sometimes to then quickly hide again, but I agree with comm and Rowain (who is on my scummier list) that his long sitting on comm would be a strategically bad play as scum. He contributed late day1 #279 and #287, #348, #608, #646. Currently neutral

  • early Commodore vote
  • #44 switch to Meiz for being unusal RPing
  • #63 switch to novice for vote analysis
  • #72 defense (not paying attention to early vote totals and voting pattern so far), read on sunrise as silly not scummy
  • #180 defense for Meiz vote, read on novice becoming less scummy, commodore, GES and Lewwyn being scummy, vote on thrawn for being to different to WW47
  • #184 prefers his scumdar working, which it is not yet. Gives Lewwyn some slack as he thinks him scummy anyways, thrawn stays suspect #1
  • #185 GES is lazy but good RP, gets some slack
  • #191 justfies tone reading as a valid strategy towards bob. Based on WW46 experience
  • #199 detailed answer to sunrise089 questioning. Keeps vote on thrawn and explains why, explains he plays by gut
  • #279 list of reads, wants to re-read on pindi, Commodore, GES and Kaiser
    • Town: Meiz
    • Scummy: pindicator, commodore (lazy), GES Alhamrbam, Jabbz (both policy lynch) Rowain (low effort), Kaiser (difficult to read)
    • Avoid today: Sunrise and Novice
  • #287 follow up on his re-read list
    • Pindi no contribution
    • Commodore has been on Gaspar all day, had no pressure and no town reads, scummy
    • GES parked vote on Gaspar for no reason, lazy scum vibes
    • Kaiser to big wall of text
  • #295 commodore is American and should easily able to parse GES, commodore is not into Roleplay
  • #323 thrawn would have done better with scum guidance? Pindi not trying hard enough for scum, commodore not enough contribution
  • #348 pindi is correct about Gaspar player strength preference.
    • Scum Comm > pin > thrawn.
    • Questionable Rowain, Jabbz, GES, Adrian, Bob.
    • Don’t want to lynch: novice, Meiz, Lewwyn.
    • Strategically ignoring: sunrise, cyneheard
  • #367 clarified that comm is more scummy looking than rowain or Jabbz
  • #371 thinks Lewwyns argument is fair but cuts still some newbie slack to thrawn
  • #382 was sold on thrawn before comm jumped on thrawn instead of pindi
  • #399 answers pindicators accusation of avoiding to vote thrawn with his suspicion of commodore and the fact that commodore switched to thrawn. Surprised about Rowains switch
  • #402 pushes for commodore one last time
  • #406 votes pindicator but is to late due to tie breakers (has been just pointed out by rowain and pindi)
  • #409 connects Comm and pindi as scum
·        #433 points to Lewwyn reading it the optimal way for him

·        #574 odds are Gazglum has been town, continues comm case vote comm
·        #608 still annoyed that he had to drop character
o   was on comm long as he was convinced him being scum but was getting convinced on thrawn until comm moved on thrawn. His scmudar told him comm and pindi scumbuddies
o   will remain like this until one of the two flips hero
o   Scum: comm, pindi (probably)
o   plenty of scum doubt: Jabbz, GES, Adrien, Kaiser
o   True neutral read: WK, sunrise089
o   plenty of town doubt: Rowain, Bob, Alhambram, Cyneheard
o   Probably town: novice, Lewwyn
o   Would be very surprised if not town: Meiz
·        #624 again comm switch to thrawn argument. Some theorizing about scum behaviour around Gaspar, pindi, comm
·        #626 asks why comm should be town, low contribution, jumped at the perfect moment on thrawn and if comm is scum pindi needs to bes cum as well. Less strong read on pindi but comm 90% scum and pindi 55% scum
·        #627 thinks Kaiser is a good tree to shake due to roland vibes
·        #646 thinks rowains lynch train is ok
o   Adrien rising suspicion but mentioned gaz just before kill as a positive point for him
o   GES still not came back
o   Kaiser no feedback yet
·        #662 Gaspar has diversified to avoid landslide lynch D2 as it is uninformative. Thinks there are a lot of lurkers right now
·        #709 GES bad choice for early tracker, thinks GEs reasoning on scum targets is weak. Thinks it was for Gaz targets meaning GES (as he was the other target)
·        #731 WK more lazy than Scum, Adrien more scum than lazy, sits on comm until he starts scumhunting
·        #735 defendes that he has been trying to avoid bias
·        #744 answers GES, Lewwyn less town by now, he could be wrong on the others. Points out that Gaz looks like a solid scum target to avoid protection
·        #762 Lewwyn makes lazy analysis Meiz being on comm and pindi all day. Locking on is a valid strategy. Lewwyn more suspicious because he never followed on the comm – pindi train. Had expected more opinions from lewwyn on day2
·        #767 hypothesis 4 scum to find, clarifies GES post to meiz

Cyneheard
I see many people having an early Day1 town lean but I cannot figure out why. He had a short analysis in #99 and poked people, but there was also a lot of RP. I have him down in #264 with his first meaningful contribution. That beeign said, he has typically good points, when he posts something (#523, #641, #649) but some of these posts might be easy to fake as wolf as they are logic analysis of reveals. Slight town lean

  • early vote on thrwan
  • #17 weird RP?
  • #18 RP
  • #37 RP
  • #40 RP
  • #43 RP + Meta
  • #99 first read, stays on thrawn due to participation, Novice no read but can follow the early vote analysis argument, Gaspar is more aggro than normally but Mr. house
  • #102 pokes, WK, Thrawn, Bob, Alhambram, Lewwyn and Jabbz for 0 content
  • #118 RP
  • #128 forum etiquette post
  • #131 more forum etiquette
  • crosspost #246 the first actual meaningful information from Cyneheard, town lean on sunrise, pindicator is weird because he has no town lean on sunrise. Some easy to follow explanation for his thrawn vote. Points out that Gaspar and Lewwyn also operate outside of expected behaviour
  • #253 vote on pindicator for not contributing enough even when contributing with limited time. Gaspar might be a later lynch
  • #271 no clear GES read, confirms gazglums argument
  • #283 confirms his read on thrawn just avoiding WW47 mistakes, pind seems the best choice
  • #333 happy that Lewwyn contributes, does not buy his argument
·        #425 reads role as Meiz, that wolves did not know thrawns alignment
·        #493 promises romain an answer before dawn on his pindi scum or anti-town question
·        #523 follow up on promis, does not follow how the thrawn train moved at the end, was it village convinced or scum pushing or both. If pind turns up village that would clear everyone on thrawn after being on pind, Thinks it unlikely that the wolves knew thrawns assignment. He thinks wolves would bus a wolf over a traitor as the traitor is more important. Voted pind because he fit the lazy scum to well (as #2) . he picked up that thrawn was lost in what he did and that is why he did not vote him as he assumed teaching would get him less lost.

·        #556 agrees that Gazglum no reveal is unhelpful but has a strong town lean on Gazglum
·        #641 is concerned that nobody notices that he was away on Saturday.
o   Vote comm little content, seems lurking, day1 list probability of having scum tries hard not to be useful
o   Gives scenarios on gazglum scum/town and how kills could have played out aligns well with my thoughts. SK is not possible due to Brick statement of only one scum team
o   Gazlum has to have been town
·        #649 does not follow Gaspars argument of Adrien less scummy because he mentioned Gaz shortly before kill
·        #696 answers GES that target lack does not mean not scum for Novice. Tracker claim realistic
·        #727 vote Adrien join with Lewwyn. Did not like late votes day1 without explanation. Recent post seems providing cover for either of Al, Jabbz, Kaiser, WK, Bob. Wants mor info why comm and pindi are fine. Jabbz posts worse than Bob’s. Lynch oder preference: 1 Adrien 2 Comm, 3 Jappz/pindi. More sceptical on Al than WK
·        #791 suggest policy lynch of Jabbz as it is getting ridiculous

GES
The lazy argument was used a little to liberal this game and I have my difficulties following it, at least when it is about the time people invest instead of about thinking arguments through. I do not fully agree with all his statements (26 % chance of a werewolf, 1/4 of werewolves will be active during night 86% sure that novice is no scum ???) he is putting in the effort and leaving a good, difficult to read trail

  • fluff post to start
  • #24 vote for Gaspar, I do not understand the reason, so I believe it is RP??
  • #62 what?
  • #155 keeps vote on Gaspar, sees Lewwyn suspicious as well and agrees with sunrise089s words. Will keep roleplaying (to my detriment, but others seem to enjoy it) Talks about a fairy tale with wolves?
  • #161 points commodore's posting behaviour out and is suspicious of him. Points out that Gaspar followed Commodore's vote on pindicator when Gaspar was vote leader. Also that Commodore is defending Gaspar, keeps vote on Gaspar
  • #166 is curious why Commodore did not understand his "kauderwelsch" before
  • #185 needs reorientation, might suspect novice? or gazglum? I seriously don't know who and why
·        #450 100 posts behind, likes that thrawn was traitor. Thinks wolves did not know thrawns alignment. hunch on pindi or comm scum based on probability, but thrawn was already scum and in top 3
·        #497 wants to re-read from the start, looks for tangible evidence (opinions and vote relation). Lewwyn town lean for thrawn train, WK town, Kaiser town for close opinion. Still considers either comm or pindi scum, doubles up on his probability argument

·        #565 rp misdirection?, will review and get back later
·        #606 has 5 pages of notes, will finish his review
·        #610 gets back to novice prodding him for hot takes. Lewwyn, Comm, Pindi scum train unlikely but can be tested. Adrien says nothing but throws shade on GES. Gazglum dead cast shade on GES, maybe because his late pind vote. Sunrise town lean
·        #686 big read up list Day1 (important post)
o   GES 3 shot tracker
§ Novice no target N1, picked for late pindi vote => lean town 85% - 90%
o   Gaz had to be town, wolves likely did not know thrawn alignment
§ Expected kill on Al, Bob or Jabbz
§ Thinks it was a try to fram Omar to frame a village lynch on a low information GES
§ Top suspects on thrawn
§ Adrien – little content, GES tunnel, vote thrawn with low explanation
§ Rowain - early shade on GES, first serious thrawn vote, switches to comm but comes back 4 minutes before deadline
§ Kaiser – reiterated vote on thrawn, shows reduced suspicion but comes back to thrawn nevertheless, inconsistent voting pattern early game. Has big suspicion list day1 even though state ~66% should be village
§ Adrien likes Kaiser and gazglum. Adrien could use this as cover later
§ Adrien moves to pindi just after Kaiser votes thrawn reluctantly, eventually moves back to thrawn
§ Rowain noted that Kaiser and Adrien voted together from  novice to Jabbz day1
§ Thinks Adrien and Kaiser could be trying to synchronise to protect commor pindi. Both are more suspicious than Rowain.
§ No clue if comm or pindi scum, unlikely that both are, more likely neither
§ Lewwyn train on comm - pindi easy to follow/high tell
§ Gaspar undecided, but was on 4 votes when Lewwyn pushed the thrawn train, Lewwyn states Gaspar town lean
§ Lewwyn suspect, unless comm and pindi both villains, his move on thrawn as scum would be dumb. Lewwyn is a strong player and maybe risk accepting enough to try it. Still comm and pindi scum low odds, so Lewwyn low odds scum
§ Cyneheard village as he left thrawn train when it seemed odd, d1 review coherent and sensible
§ Sunrise last vote on thrawn not an overtell as it seems to be an honest will for participation
·        #717 explains his % statements to Cyneheard 27% scum chance, ¼ = 14% scum chance left ??? thinks it foolish to assign anybody more than 90% townyness. Explains his wolf did not know thrawn alignment to novice
·        #736 announces long post, checks Gaspar for his town read (Novice, Lewwyn, Meiz) checks WK on what he likes on Alhambrams post
·        #755 not much happened D2,
o   town mostly picking sides in a pindi/comm vote. Might give info on Lewwyn as well. Wants to re-read this day3 and evaluate afterwards, currently occupying to much of town attention
o   Odds were more likely to have none than 3 on the final vote day1
o   Wants to look for other wolves right now, thinks there are 5 scum total
§ Cyne post #727 gets town lean
§ Novice still town lean
§ Rowain feels better due to clearer preferences, could be villain wasting town time
§ Kaiser still suspicious, maybe language barrier here but wrongly stating that Lewwyn started the thrawn train when Rowain was the first on thrawn way before
§ Adrien still 0 good posts. Mentioning Gaz before night kill was odd, especially after Lewwyn posted scum vibes about Gazlum. Did only mention Gaz once otherwise being ready to follow him on a GES train
§ Jabbz sporadic lengthy posts about metagame concerns and difficult reads. No villain hunting. Said in 682 that he caught up but has still no reads
§ Alhambram same, very low content very low reads.
§ Wants to take a closer look at Jabbz, Adrien, Al, votes Adrien

Adrien before Lewwyn due to time constraints
His thrawn votes lacked arguments, he brought them later but it is always easier in hindsight. I feel much of his posts follow the rule that he can explain them later which I dislike as it leaves less of a trail and gives better outs later. 
Follows strongly on dead Gazglums lead, but avoids commititing on anything else. When leaving GES he is focussing on the low posters and jumps quickly on WK after Lewwyn starts the train after stating earlier that he does not want to follow Lewwyn. His jump on gaspar seems defensive

  • Metagame vote
  • fluff
  • #71 read on novice playing in character and bringing day 1 along, announces vote change target unclear
  • #97 follows Kaiser on Jabbz vote within 10 minutes, states that discussions around Meiz and Novice seem far fetched
  • metagame feedback to WW46
  • #154 moves from jabbz to GES to get more content, which follows immediately. Dislikes the novice train and thinks there might be scum
  • funny reply
  • #293 defends Commodore, symapthy for thrawn, Kaiser slight town lean, Gazglum town lean, does not think he can get a GES lynch without Gazglum
  • #317 justifies his vote on GES, is not convinced of Lazy pindi vs lazy Thrawn vs apparently-not-engaged-enough Commodore.
  • #332 vote pindicator but prefers GES or WK
  • #354 needs to investigate thrawn.,
  • #368 votes thrawn nothing else in post
  • #372 arguments #368 thrawn wants out of the game  (#316) death givs info on Lewwyn and others
  • #376 pindi vs thrawn harder to decide (thought started #354)
  • #383 does not want to lynch pindi if there is a plausible case in thrawn
  • #394 checks for people to make the vote safe
·        #423 points out that the lynch did not reveal what was hoped for
·        #431 considers it possible that the wolves knew thrwans assignment
·        #448 corrects novice in his assumption about thrawn knowing the wolves
·        #468 defends against novice by pointing out that Lewwyn would have been easy to set up with a town thrawn
·        #504 explains why no-lynch is bad to Alhambram
·        #508 responds to Meiz that he skimmed role Pm and thought it was mutual lack of knowledge
·        #513 answer to Meiz has neutral to positive comm
·        #526 detailed answer to Meiz, comms tone feels fine. Cannot judge the “is American should understand GES” argument. Not a town read but not a lynch either
·        #535 answers Rowains question on if Meiz is scum, at deadline day1 he would have said no, right now no answer but self doubts. He participated himself in night talk and does not want to count it against Meiz
·        #544 wants to see more from gazglum
·        #547 comm play day1 fine. Prodded people in participation, pointed at scumme posts, gave reads, no worsening so far, today no vote on comm without any change there

·        # votes GES as top suspect in response to Lewwyn, then WK and re-read sunrise. Theory on either Gazglum having a role that hid his ability or wolves blocked alignment
·        #562 GES still the same case as yesterday, he went off as his vote was not leading anywhere. Alhambram and bob need to participate more
·        #577 explains his GES vote with GEs being among Gazglums main targets
·        #588 supports Lewwyn #587 question to Al
·        #706 no one distinctly scummy. Likes GES megapost, D1 targets are absolutetely fine. Looks at lower content posters:
o   Al weird misunderstanding of scumbuddy joke, would he be lazy enough to jump on such a bad case
o   Jabbz content ok
o   Kaiser big post was good, finds posts pretty good so far
o   WK content to low
o   Bob more posts, now scummy vibes
o   Vote Alhambram followed by WK
·        #747 Lewwyn thoughs on com and pind mirror his but votes for him. Then votes for WK who has been on his suspicion list forever. Is not sure he wants to join Lewwyn on the WK train
·        #757 follows Lewwyn anyway on WK to get info on Lewwyn
·        #760 justfies WK scum to Meiz on hiding behind RP
·        #777 justifies his WK vote towards bobs question that he prefers killing WK over Lewwyn  to get a better Lewwyn read
·        #784 Announces that he will leave WK, wants to see where this train is going
·        #806 goes to Gaspar as he has a bad vibe on him

the rest comes in the night if I am still there

Reply

(October 5th, 2020, 10:44)Rowain Wrote:
(October 5th, 2020, 10:32)Lewwyn Wrote: Rowain you going to swap over to comm and put the hammer down at the last minute? That’s what I’m feeling, but I’m hoping you have a rowain moment and come be the hero over here.

No promises given. OTOH Commodore accused me to sit on the sidelines so if I don't switch and he lives I will have to endure him another day. Don't know if I'm willing to endure that again after the 3 shitty days of WW46.
Eee KEE rirrr eeeeEEEE *chirp*
<I will always find your style annoying but if you can come actual hammer a scum you are going to be swimming in town credit.>
If only you and me and dead people know hex, then only deaf people know hex.

I write RPG adventures, and blog about it, check it out.
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Jabbz, I saw that as him immediately voting for the next highest person in self defense. He didn't recall it later because he never seriously thought I was scum
Suffer Game Sicko
Dodo Tier Player
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Tally as of post 897:

Lynch votes
7 votes: Comm/Flipper (Meiz, Gaspar, Alhambram, sunrise089, novice, WarriorKnight, Jabbz)
5 votes: WK/Statler & Waldorf (pindicator, Commodore, Lewwyn, AdrienIer, Cyneheard)
4 votes: Adrien/Ron Swanson (Gold Ergo Sum, Bobchillingworth, Rowain, Kaiser)

Voting history:
Rowain Wrote: Flipper
AdrienIer Wrote: GES
Alhambram Wrote: George Costanza
novice Wrote: Henchman 21
Meiz Wrote: Flipper
Gaspar Wrote: Flipper
Kaiser Wrote: Uncle Iroh
Bobchillingworth Wrote: * Gaspar * novice
Bobchillingworth Wrote: Henchman 21
Bobchillingworth Wrote: Carrie Mathison
Bobchillingworth Wrote: Allanon
Bobchillingworth Wrote: Gold Ergo Sum
Bobchillingworth Wrote: George Costanza
Bobchillingworth Wrote: Homer Simpson
Commodore Wrote: *chirup* reEEE
Commodore Wrote: GES
Lewwyn Wrote: GES
Alhambram Wrote: Flipper
pindicator Wrote: Gold Ergo Sum
Rowain Wrote: Isaac
novice Wrote: Isaac
WarriorKnight Wrote: Flipper
pindicator Wrote: Gregory House
Cyneheard Wrote: Flipper
pindicator Wrote: Gold Ergo Sum
Bobchillingworth Wrote: Flipper
AdrienIer Wrote: Homer Simpson
Commodore Wrote: Uncle Iroh
Bobchillingworth Wrote: Carrie Mathison
Lewwyn Wrote: Ron Swanson
Cyneheard Wrote: Ron Swanson
Lewwyn Wrote: Statler & Waldorf
pindicator Wrote: Statler & Waldorf
Gold Ergo Sum Wrote: Ron Swanson
AdrienIer Wrote: Statler & Waldorf
Bobchillingworth Wrote: Ron Swanson
Rowain Wrote: Ron Swanson
sunrise089 Wrote: Flipper
WarriorKnight Wrote: Ron Swanson
novice Wrote: Flipper
WarriorKnight Wrote: Flipper
AdrienIer Wrote: Gregory House
Lewwyn Wrote: Gregory House
Commodore Wrote: *chirp* eeyakata
Commodore Wrote: Statler & Waldorf
Lewwyn Wrote: Statler & Waldorf
AdrienIer Wrote: Statler & Waldorf
Cyneheard Wrote: Statler & Waldorf
Jabbz Wrote: Flipper

5 minutes.
Reply

(October 5th, 2020, 10:50)Rowain Wrote: @Jabbz

Why did you ask Commodore what he did at night?

I think it's important to get any information he might have received before he died. 
Depending on what role he had, he might not want to out himself for fear of being nightkilled before he could fully utilize that information. As it happens I believe him. Doesn't help his case though.

At this point, what does he have to lose?
Reply

Omar up. Tried to make a quick sideways glance at everything. It looks like Swanson is not going to get got, and no one cares that Jabbz was still in the wind.

So we got a Flip v. Duo Puppet showdown.

Omar felt good about Duo Puppet initially. Come tinfoil hat time, he did not jump out one way or the other, so Omar assume he just village, since most people are village.
What's the case here at it's core, Weeb Fox?

Flip been odd since D1, but Omar always think Flip is weird, ever since annexing some of his corners years ago in a PBEM. Diplo be indecipherable with that one. Boy's logic always scatterbrained.

Of the two, Flip feels more likely to be a villain, and tests at the Old Tea Man hypothesis.

Commodore
Completed: SG2-Wonders or Else!; SG3-Monarch Can't Hold Me; WW3-Surviving Wolf; PBEM3-Replacement for Timmy of Khmer; PBEM11-Screwed Up Huayna Capac of Zulu; PBEM19-GES, Roland & Friends (Mansa of Egypt); SG4-Immortality Scares Me
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(October 5th, 2020, 10:54)pindicator Wrote: Jabbz, I saw that as him immediately voting for the next highest person in self defense. He didn't recall it later because he never seriously thought I was scum

The first vote on you was 282, early in the day. There was zero pressure.
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(October 5th, 2020, 10:53)sunrise089 Wrote: Also @Commodore, why did you claim? I thought Lewwyn misread your message to Jabbz, but then you went ahead and claimed anyways?!

I mean commuter is a safe scum roleclaim, that would be my guess.
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
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