Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[Sandover]

I'm not pegging novice as innocent, but for so long as Rowain's identity remain unkown I believe he deserve some credit for making the "right" call day 2. A wolf voting to kill other wolves isn't much of a liability, and I do like novice's forceful last minute switches. Bottom line, anyone trying to lynch him today will have to deal with me. Capice?

I'd like to suggest having a closer look at Zakalwe.

[Lewwyn]

Putting down the bard!
Zakalwe

[Sareln]

Sorry for the spamming - at least no walls of text. Sareln, do you think you could edit the first post with links to each lynch and night kill writeup?

They're already there under "Turn Resolutions"

[Bruindane]

So I would like to pursue a new direction today. It will take me a little bit of time and reading (and find visual aids of course), but my working theory is spent.

[Bruindane]

They're already there under "Turn Resolutions"

I realized my post was most unhelpful after I posted it. The rule of terror and fear of editing posts has extended outside the game to my e-mails.

[Bruindane]

@ Sandover, Lewwyn - I think Zakalwe will be thrilled that we are lynching him for his rp. Now we'll have to read them again.

Zakalwe

[zakalwe]

I also believe he's using the RP as cover.

Actually, this comment, which was immediately seconded by Sandover, kind of pisses me off. Roleplay as a cover for what, exactly? I do have a fair number of "serious" posts too. Would it change anything if I stopped posting roleplay?

[Gold Ergo Sum]

I am finally caught up. Of course, I had to piss my wife off by refusing to go run errands with her to do it.

OK, so I promised to try to come up with something more substantial. I am apparently terrible at "reading" people because nothing in anyone's actual text itself jumps out at me. So I decided to go to the votes themselves. Granted, we still have a small knowledge base, but what do we know based on lynches?

MJW was a villager.

Selrahc was a wolf.


It would make sense to start from an assumption that wolves would've been more likely to vote for MJW since he was a villager (and because any of the other candidates have yet to be categorically proven as villagers).

These people voted for MJW:

Serdoa, [strike]Selrahc[/strike], [strike]Bobchillingworth[/strike], Mr Nice Guy, Cull, Jkaen, Irgy, Lewwyn

It would also make sense to work on the assumption that in a tight voting scenario, it is more likely than not that the wolves wouldn't have voted for Selrahc.

These people didn't vote for Selrahc:

Pocketbeetle, Meiz, [strike]Selrahc[/strike], zakalwe, Serdoa, JKaen, Rowain, Lewwyn, Mardoc, Fire & Ice, Cull, MNG

Who shows up on both lists:

[strike]Selrahc[/strike], Serdoa, MNG, Cull, Jkaen, Lewwyn


The only other voting that has taken place was for mayor, so I think it is interesting to look and see what these six people did in voting for mayor:

Cull, MNG, Serdoa all voted for novice, in a row. (When I say in a row, I mean based on the order of the tally list SareIn put at the end of the post).

[strike]Selrahc[/strike], Jkaen, and Lewwyn all voted for a candidate which received one vote.

I would also point out that if the order of the votes on SareIn's tally list is correct, then MNG, Cull, and Jkaen all voted for MJW in a row in a tight voting situation.

That puts MNG and Cull on both lists, and in back-to-back votes on MJW and for novice as mayor.


It definitely seems worth analyzing more deeply by some of you with much better heads for this game than me. If I get a second, I will try to look more closely into the "in a row" votes to see how closely they came together etc.

I find it interesting that Lewwyn and Cull, original suspects from Day 1 appear on the list. They were involved in a last minute vote switch where Lewwyn switched from Cull to MJW and in the process a villager got lynched.

It seems people are already pointing fingers at Jkaen today.

[Roland]

Lynch:
3v: zakalwe ( Sandover, Lewwyn )
2v: Jkaen ( fire&ice, Mr. Nice Guy )
1v: pocketbeetle ( Rowain )
1v: Rowain ( novice )

1. fire&ice votes Jkaen
   
2. Mr. Nice Guy votes Jkaen
   
3. Rowain votes pocketbeetle
   
4. novice votes Rowain
   
5. Sandover votes zakalwe
   
6. Lewwyn votes zakalwe
   
7. Bruindane votes zakalwe
   

[Irgy]

So, I still have a fair bit of text to read through in more detail. However, I've had a look at the voting records at least, which can often mean more anyway. Some general observations:
(day 2)
* The Rowain surge late in the day was decidedly suspicious.
* People swung happily from novice onto Rowain, but the Pocketbeetle voters stayed put.
* Novice, Pocketbeetle and even Selrahc's switches were understandable from a self-preservation perspective. Novice notably switched back off Rowain in the end.
* Sandover's switch to put himself officially on Selrahc and make it 9-6 instead of 8-7 is pretty dubious. So I thought I'd have a look at his justification, and that was even more dubious.
(day 1)
* Pile-ups on Lewwyn (short lived) and a late one on Cull are also a little supicious, though such things can occur naturally. There's no wolf justification for the late votes on Cull to attempt to save MJW, but there might be reasons to have brought him up in the first place.
* Both days Pocketbeetles votes were much slower moving. This highlights a qualitative difference in bandwagons. Slow moving inevitability: Selrahc, Pocketbeetle x 2, maybe MJW. Fickle and fast: Lewwyn, Cull, Rowain, Novice. The difference may be co-incidence, or it may be a specific property of the set of wolves and/or villagers we have in this game. Or a particular subset of the above - I have no doubt there's at least one wolf playing a distinctly different game from the others right now.

There's reasons to be suspicious of Pocketbeetle right now from various parts of the above. However, I'll leave that be for the moment, in the interests (again) of raising new candidates to try and sift through what's left. The person that I've avoided mentioning above so as to focus on him specifically is Meiz. Here's my case:

Mayor votes, a close interaction with Selrahc. Selrahc voted for him as mayor, Meiz supported this move himself, but nothing much came of it. This could be an attempt to raise an early wolf-mayor candidate, which failed because the villagers weren't interested and the other wolves didn't want to be too suspicious. Or conversely an intentionally failed attempt to associate some mayor votes with each other to point to later with the argument that wolves wouldn't want to be mayor - this is more likely given Selrahc's experience last game. Or it could of course be innocent (for Meiz's part anyway). Wouldn't put much stock in this on its own.

Lynch votes though, Meiz is the wagon-driver. Never the first vote, but always the vote to turn it into something. Both Lewwyn and Cull on day 1. Day 2 Mardoc, which failed to get off the ground, then Selrahc for a while, but switching to novice when Selrahc started to look dangerous. Then onto Rowain when the chance arose. Despite this being a shorter paragraph than the last, this is the core of my case.

FWIW, I found him by looking for suspicious Rowain bandwagoners, then found the pattern continued to previous votes.

So, wolf, or just an innocent but fickle stirrer? His posts that I've looked at just now certainly make an effort to seem as if there's reasons for his votes every time, which belies the fact that he's jumped onto almost every wagon he's had a chance to. With the notable exception of Pocketbeetle, who he's conspicuously avoided and effectively protected. This connection won't mean much though until we know more about one or the other of them.