[SPOILERS] Lewger goes for the Bigwyn

[Bigger]

ok, after running to the corner store and thinking about it, I see two possibilities:

1. do nothing, offer him beowulf but NOT the aeneid, see what he does

2. attack his spear/chariot stack this turn. this is the last turn i will have this option, since he pillaged the roads. he has 4 chariots there defended by 2 spears and a warrior. so the plan would be to throw all 4 chariots (we have 1 that is combat1 + shock, 2 that are combat 1, and one unpromoted), hopefully killing them but at least injuring them greatly. then our 2 spears could take out a couple of chariots, making the threat on the odyssey much less. we would have the 2 injured spears, city guard 2 archer with a 10% defensive bonus, and an axe that will be healed to 4.0+ by next turn and have a 25% defensive bonus to defend against his injured axe, horse archer, the 2 remaining chariots and worker.

im actually considering the latter. ill log in and post our odds first. if it goes well, we might even get a peace treaty with no concessions. if we lose, he might not accept even the 2 cities in a treaty. although I guess i could offer it at end of turn.

[waterbat]

so you played this turn, bigger?

[Bigger]

ok. azza's praet had 70.8 odds vs our CG1 archer. we won without a scratch. thats pretty awesome.

even our shock chariot has crap odds vs. the spears. but our unpromoted chariot has a 10% retreat chance, so maybe we could injure it enough to move in later? our spears have 50% odds attacking the stack vs his spears. I wish I was enough of a math guy to calculate our overall chances here.

[Ceiliazul]

Overall stack odds is still an unsolved problem in general, though many smart people have worked on it.

But every lurker knows the answer: ATTACK!

[Bigger]

Overall stack odds is still an unsolved problem in general, and many smart people have worked on it.

But every lurker knows the answer: ATTACK!

well im pretty sure im going to at least attack with 1 unit and then evaluate from there.

not sure if i should take the spear vs. spear at 50% (the spear with less of a fortify bonus, of course) or attack our with a more expendable chariot and hope for a retreat (or just to highly injure a spear, which would be fine too).

leaning towards risking one spear.

[Sareln]

Overall stack odds is still an unsolved problem in general, though many smart people have worked on it.

But every lurker knows the answer: ATTACK!

Think of how big the solution space is.

[Lewwyn]

Still don't have real Internet to play the turn with. What if the spear attacked out? Do we get a coin flip on his spear? How far is the axe? How damaged is the axe in Beowulf?

[Bigger]

yeah it would be 50/50 with spear. he just moved this turn so no fortify bonus.

axe is in odyssey and can attack the stack, but that wouldnt be good. he'd barely have odds on a chariot and that would still leave the spears to deal with, and leave our axe exposed. the archer in the aeneid can cover him, i guess, if we want to leave the aeneid completely undefended. I don't think its worth it unless we slaughter him and that axe is just cleaning up, though.

[Lewwyn]

Unless we get amazing rolls with the chariot on spear attack I think it'd be bad. What defends if the warrior attacks out? Also what are the exact odds for the shock chariot on the spear?

[waterbat]

agreed - the archer and axe would be just clean up. bigger and i screwing around with worldbuilder, but hard to argue with Ceiliazul :}

yeah the solution space is crazy, that's why'd you just have to run X number of sims and live with what you get - the other hard part would be providing meaningful results. hmmm....