GAVAGAI

[Gavagai]

So, I received this from SD. I decipher it as follows: I will not attack you; I will attack Ginger; you will not obstruct me and will close borders to Ginger; beware of the threat in the east.
Was it any other player, I would just move my army away to the eastern front with relief. But this is Superdeath who straight up lied to me about going to war with Commodore in this very game. I would not put it beneath him at all to backstab me in the most vicious way just after I clear away my defenses. He moved his main stack somewhere out of my sight though, so at least we have that.
However, this confirms my fears about the impending dogpile (well, unless he just made it all up to distract my army). Also, some of these cities are in the southeast and that somewhat confirms that Naufragar is also involved; I was somewhat unsure about it, given how flat his power was all this time (but it does not matter much, as he would jump into the dogpile anyway when he would see it unfolding).
If (if!) SD is out of the equation, I think I'll be able to deal with Amicalola one on one. He should not be able to, at the same time, advance and defend his ivory/gems city against my entire army. I think he realizes it but counts on SD's involvement and me just surrendering everything in the east (but in that case, WHY BUILD THE ARMY? idk, at this juncture, what nauf is doing makes much more sense to me). I do not see a way to communicate to him that SD is no longer on board. If I am very lucky, SD attacks Ginger before Amica pulls the trigger on me.
I'll need to think really hard about what I am going to do. I can two-turn Construction if I put everything on wealth but I hardly can afford to do it, so it, more likely, would be three turns. At least, Commodore agree to sell me silk but it would only compensate for the ivory i now receive from amica.

[Gavagai]

Btw, notice how SD has kind of thrown his allies under the bus right here in this message. And I am supposed to empty my most important city on a promise from this guy???

[Gavagai]

My border with Amica. So, this is why I do not believe he can advance into my territory: he does not have enough spears. He needs to defend Get to Heaven, Regret and his advancing stack from my 20 HAs. There is no resource for him to do it and his Axes are also very few in number. I sent him an offer of Get to Heaven in exchange for Nicolas II indicating that I will raze his city if he tries to invade me. From what I remember of our last war, he values this city very highly. I also sent him another offer (which I am not sure he'll understand) indicating that I am willing to give up Alexander III to Nauf if he agrees to switch sides (and I really am).



This is what is being built in my cities. Construction is actually in two turns: I'll complete most of these military builds next turn, switch cities to wealth and raise the slider. I am also running a food deficit in some cities to work citizens.
Oh and I figured out what SD meant in his message, I think. He wants me to close borders with Ginger because he wants to move his army through my territory. I sent him a message I am doing it in two turns (I will lose income from it, so I want to tech Construction first).

[Gavagai]

Superdeath sent me this:



Ok, Ginger and Commodore are at peace now, so the previous plan is off the table but now he wants me to attack Amicalola!? What? Why? And he still wants me to stop trading with Ginger for some reason. This last thing I am definitely not going to do now, he just wants me to antagonize the strongest civ on the map for no reason. What stone means I do not understand.
With respect to Amica, it might be that this is what is on his mind:



If he has a fleet, he can invade Amica from the north and split him with me. But I do not believe this is going to happen. It is only viable for him if I destroy Amica's army first because otherwise Amica will just march north and recapture his core. And if I destroy Amica's army, my own will be heavily damaged, so he can just attack me instead.
I sent SD that I will go to war with Amica if he also goes to war with him and sent him a countdown of 5 turns just to win time. To Amica I sent a warning about the impending invasion from the north. I strongly suspect that Amica is actually counting on SD's aid in the upcoming war. Frankly, all of it combined makes SD the absolute worst.
Amica's behavior for me is now Naufragar level perplexing. In the absolute best case scenario, if their dogpile succeeds and I completely fall apart, he is going to get this:



And if we split Nauf together, he will receive this plus one more city in the north that did not get into the picture:



Can a lurker just please tell me, speaking hypothetically and without spoilers, how the first picture could possibly represent a better world than the second one?

[Gavagai]

Btw, I still remember the old times when Commodore was considered a horrible neighbor. And look now at this game! I would trade any of this trio for Commodore so much!

[Mjmd]

Can a lurker just please tell me, speaking hypothetically and without spoilers, how the first picture could possibly represent a better world than the second one?

One thing I've found continuously and keep having to be reminded of every game is that players almost never see the game the same. 

I've really been enjoying your reporting; thank you, know you've been busy.

[Gavagai]

My hope now is that the information that SD betrayed him will finally help me to get through to Amica. If I have peace there, I can fight Nauf and SD. Otherwise idk what I am supposed to do if all three neighbors just hate my guts.

[Gavagai]

The war has started.



Very similar setup to his previous invasion. On the screen you can see his southern stack and my garrison. Northern stack is mostly a bunch of spear plus something like 2 Crossbows, 3 Vultures, and a Catapult. Notably, there are no Elephants. Amicalola also declared but he did not move anything inside my territory. Moreover, there is no 1-mover stack (except garrisons that are insufficient for offensive purposes) that can move inside my territory next turn. He actually moved his 2-mover stack away from a spot from which it could strike at Lenin, somewhere inside his territory.
I deployed my forces as follows:



1-mover stack is 1SW from Lenin, ready to parry Amica's threat or to swing west to reinforce Gorbachev (more on that in the next post). 2-mover stack is 1E from Nicolas II. You can see catapults 1SE from Lenin, there are two of them for now (and a sentry HA). Mini-stack 2NW from Alexander III is 3 Axes, 1 Chariot, 1 HA. The plan is to threaten Cistercia next turn and try to get peace for Alexander III from Nauf.

[Gavagai]

Now about the situation in the west. Superdeath DID NOT declare on me. He actually keeps his main stack (something like 25 Numidians) very deep inside his territory. He also sent me this:



"Do not worry, - he says. - My units near USA are not for Gorbachev, they are for the war with Ginger."
Well, I do not believe it at all. It is well established that SD has no honor at all and the notion of the war with Ginger is ridiculous, he will just get steamrolled. The only silver lining for me is this:



Except for an observer chariot on the eastern theater, he has no units inside my territory and no way to check defenses inside Gorbachev. If all of it were just a ploy to lure my units out of the city, it would be weird not to leave oneself an opportunity to see whether the units got lured out So SD might be truthful after all but in that case I do not understand him at all.
I forgot to take a picture of Gorbachev but by the moment SD can strike with 2movers (2 turns from now) it will have an elephant, a spear, an axe, three swords (all of it double-promoted) and a city garrison archer. On a hill behind 60 percent defenses this is formidable. I think he can push through with 25 Numids but he is going to lose most of them in the process. He needs to get his 1movers in but it will take much more time and I should be able to reinforce.

[Gavagai]

I sent white peace to Amica and peace for Alexander III to Nauf. I hope to be able to force these terms eventually: Nauf will take peace under the threat of losing a city of his own and Amica would have no reason to keep fighting after that. If I succeed I would consider it a very good result. Amica, hopefully, will notice that the only effect of his war effort was Nauf getting a city and also would now know better than to trust SD. Nauf will make his territory even more indefensible than it already is. So I hope to organize a dogpile against Nauf in the next round of fighting.