RB PBEM #10 [SPOILERS] - Meatbalz

[meatbalz]

Hmmm... TT contacted me asking what the terms of our peace agreement were. Very strange.

Turn played as planned. Great news at the end of the turn:



Not one but two irons on the island. Still need to find out 100% whether each civ gets 2 irons or we're supposed to share. Looking back on correspondence with Greece he indicated he could see one iron equidistant to TT... So it's unlikely we each get an iron island.

I will most likely send one to Serdoa if he can make it worth my while, attached to OB and a NAP of course. And I'll need to revisit the trade when he gets close to engineering. But I'm definitely considering it if it guarantees me a friend (and trading partner) and a safe border. I'm also going to try to ensure TT gets none - if I can somehow work it (and I'll need to be VERY persuasive to make it work) then on T100 Sumeria is in deep, deep sh*t. Like I said earlier, T100 NAP expiry was not chosen at random.

Demographics:


50% above average on GNP (as soon as I pick something to research)
50% above average on soldier count
~5% below average on food & production

Not bad considering I'm down a razed city. Plan is to found 3 more cities, research Monarchy just before cash runs out, revolt to OR&HR, most big cities forge->market. Chaos builds ToA.

[meatbalz]

seriously TT, what the fuck? you ask me for NAP terms, I tell you, and you violate it, no, REviolate it, the very next turn.

[pocketbeetle]

Catching up on threads, just wanted to say I laughed my ass off at this one:

Relations modifiers Sumeria:

• -1 You're dirty foreigners
  
• -1 You went several turns without contacting me
  
• +0.5 You had the balls to raze of my cities
  
• -800,000 You razed one of my cities
  

I may have to steal your 'link to one post for relations' method, I hope you don't mind!

[meatbalz]

thanks PB i'd just been wondering what this flurry of posting activity & lurker interest was, when i received this (bold added by me):

mb,

sorry for a late answer, but I had on Wednesday an appointment with my dentist and was also yesterday home due to the pain from my teeth, so was not really in the position to write emails.

Anyway, thank you for the marble. I hope my open borders are helpful as well with the Great Lighthouse? Regarding the iron, I think the best way if there are 2 sources would be to simply gift me one of those as long as we work together, don't you think? You won't need two anyway and fighting about it would be kind of odd, especially if you take into account that several civs are already "unhappy" with your Great Lighthouse powered commerce. I can as of now not go into details, but suffice to say that I was requested to close borders with you and try to find a source of metal for another civ. I won't do neither of those, even that this probably means a 2vs4 in the long run.

I feel commited to your civ and I hope you feel the same in turn with mine. I want to work with you together and I feel that our approaches on the game are different enough that we will not find reasons to fight each other. Even more, I think the best thing right now to do is to give the other one a secure border.

I am not to good with words, especially in English, but I am inclined to work out a partnership with you which can last till the end of the game from my point of view. If you would also like something along those lines, we should probably each put down what we would hope to achieve. For example for me that would be to get access to marble without having to pay or fight for it as long as you do not need it at the same time and getting access to iron as long as you have two sources. There are of course other points, also including warring with someone, but I would first like to hear your stance before I go into details.

Oh, and please, do not ask anyone about that dogpile I told you above. I want to be involved in that circle as long as possible to get as much information out of it as possible. That will make it for both of us much easier I think. Do you agree?

Kind regards,
Serdoa

this is insanity!

so let me get this straight, TT has been locked out of the iron and somebody (99% either CH or Tatan) is trying to get him metal and have him declare on me!

now, I understand I fall a bit to the "too friendly" end of the scale, but this kind of thing constantly amazes me. so far TT has:
1) razed a city for zero direct gain and made an enemy out of a neighbor right from the start of the game
2) violated a ROP agreement
3) REviolated a ROP agreement, the very next turn after he asked me to remind him of the terms
4) is now planning on, what, tearing up an NAP?

how does one person lose sight of all they could lose in the long-term in exchange for such small short-term gains???

if i'm reading the situation right, then TT has just trashed whatever small amount of credibility he had left on RB by even CONTEMPLATING this move. dude, this is not the first time i say this in this thread, but you can't just sign agreements and then tear them up as soon as they're not convenient - people just aren't going to trust you.


and do the several civs Serdoa mentioned who are unhappy (i'll dub them the "anti-GL coalition") even know we have an NAP? because I haven't told anyone yet, although I will tell Serdoa later today when I give him a full response.


well, regardless, this is a threat that needs to be responded to. i spotted a barb city on the central island last turn and was about to send 2 chariots on a galley to take it, but that may now be unwise given both TT's completely erratic behavior and the fact people are already worried about my teching. i may yet reconsider based on what AH says (more on that in a sec)


the funniest thing is - i don't know tatan and CH very well, but from what i've seen in this game and on RB, i'd place a hefty bet that it's CH - he of the MASSIVE pop & food lead - that's orchestrating this! how do people not see through this?

tatan has struck me as very clumsy in his diplo, very clumsy indeed. he is going to run into serious trouble in this game. CH on the other hand is great to work with & very smooth at diplo. i may be underestimating tatan but from what i've seen - orchestrating a dogpile and convincing an admittedly insane TT to break an NAP is probably beyond him. not so for CH.


the wild card is AH. unless he's completely pulled the wool over my eyes (and if so, masterfully done sir!!!) he's not the one behind this plan. he has sounded genuinely concerned about Sumeria in our diplo and we're in the final stages of me securing his spare iron for a few turns. he doesn't know i've settled my own iron island, but that's besides the point since i need iron NOW and won't have my own access online for several turns. Serdoa's hint that he's been approached to secure a civ some metal is indicative of the fact AH is probably not the one behind the "anti-GL plan", otherwise he'd have no problem giving his spare to TT (and again, if you've been stringing me along and read this after the game AH, you had me 100% fooled )


a lot of my thinking hinges on whether he's part of this anti-GL coalition or not. if he isn't, even if CH and TT close borders my trade route income will barely be dented. if he is, it's not the end of the world, but the loss of trade route income would total 1/turn/route for about 18 routes - not insignificant, but not insurmountable.


so here's the situation, quickly recapped:

Serdoa- friend & ally, likely until the end of the game. (and yes, i will provide a diplo-mail-dump at some point to show how it came about)
Tatan- my current read is he's CH's puppet. reading between the lines of serdoa's mail, it's clear he's in deep trouble in this game because of awful diplo.
CH- looks to be the orchestrator of a conspiracy against me, ironic since he's by far the biggest threat to win the game right now.
AH- very uncertain here. i think he's a friend & worried about TT. the next couple of turns will clarify.
TT- erratic, completely motivated by short-term self-interest, lacking foresight, overly aggressive, disregarding of agreements, and untrustworthy - that applies in this game or any other i come across him. you made your own bed, now sleep in it.

[meatbalz]

and right on cue

Hey mb,

good to see that we have the same understanding. I start with the most important stuff right here:

The idea of the plan ... well, read for yourself

"The plan is that the four of us would all agree not to sign OBs with Meatbalz, and Twinkletoes expects that he will end up at war with Meatbalz. If he can't get our support, he won't cut OBs, which limits the value of any of us doing so (and everyone, including myself, except for Tatan has signed OBs with Meatbalz: the only way this truly makes sense is if we all act together on this one).

Twinkletoes is willing to do this under two conditions:
1) The rest of us agree not to fight TT for the duration of his war with Meatbalz. I can forward any negotiations/conditions you may want to Twinkletoes, if desired.
2) Metal: To the extent possible, we would need to find a way to get him access to some; TT promises to return payment "once it is no longer needed": this should probably be clarified. I'm willing to do so if/when I get access to iron; it's amazing what a well-timed set of whips could generate in 2-3t for internal defenses before shipping it off for 10t."

Cute, isn't it? So, as I said, I do not want to agree to that. Especially as it seems for me kinda odd to dogpile you only because you got a (pretty strong on this map) wonder. As I said in my thread, they all could have got it.

Anyway. I would like to give them the feeling that I consider closing borders but simply cannot because of another trade with you. Hopefully so that they do keep me in the loop regarding the war plans of TT and also of their embargo. Is that ok with you?

Last point: Let me put down shortly what I basically would like to make sure:

- marble and iron source as explained before
- discussion about that island west of mine where you settled Field. I guess on that island should be a stone resource as well, and I would like to settle it. You would get it the same way we handle it with marble of course - should I be mistaken and there is none then I would only like to discuss before something is settled with you because of resources (but I guess that should never be a big issue anyway)

And I guess thats it. I simply assume that we will help the other out when he does need help. Not directly fighting his wars but also not simply leaning back and looking when he gets shred to pieces. I guess you know how I feel and act about an ally from my previous games here. If not or if something is unclear, simply ask

Well, I guess thats it for now. Let me know if there is something which does not work at all for you or if you have something you would hope to get what you see contradicted or were you might already think that I would not be to happy about. But basically, as long as it is not meant to screw me over, I shouldn't have much issues with it.

Kind regards,
Serdoa

CH it is.

[meatbalz]

- Diplo post on page 1 updated
- Revolt to OR, HR & Judaism done
- 8th city, Graph, founded on spot of razed 4th city
- Judaism spreads to 2 cities, both on the island between me and TT . Religious spread has been, frankly, unbelievably lucky. I have Judaism in 6 of 8 cities.
- Cities bordering Sumeria have archer/chariot pairs in them
- Rsch set to feudalism. 1 turn max gold, then assuming nobody closes borders yet, the tech will take 4T. Current rsch @ 100% is ~150 beakers/turn, and will be over 160 next turn when city9 is founded. I might not do binary to mask rsch rate.
- Top 3 cities all set to forges
- NW island is getting deforested by 3 workers
- MFG+food is awful
- Power is great
- Score is dead last

[meatbalz]

another day, another turn.

city 9 founded (Set), CH founded city 8. i'll be at 9 cities for a few turns while i grow vertically for a change.
nothing else to report, cities are growing and a flurry of builds compete in the next 5T: 3x forge, 3x granary, 1x monument
still dead last in score, which is good or i'd be in real trouble of a dogpile
demographics say: GNP is 2nd, but in reality my rsch is 1st by a wide margin
power is 1st or tied for 1st
food+mfg bouncing back and except for CH who's far ahead, i'm probably slightly better than average

[meatbalz]

i'm getting very, very nervous all of a sudden. tatan's held the turn since yesterday, no activity in the forums, i haven't heard from serdoa, and there's a suggested 5-on-1 on the cards.

nothing to do but sit back and wait, but perhaps a couple of extra archers on the E flank wouldn't go amiss until serdoa formalizes our alliance. i think serdoa's military strength is very low but you never know - if he's brought into the fold by the anti-GL coalition, he could whip a couple of chariots, tatan gifts him a couple... it'd be enough to do some damage. the good news is i have enough troops to make it tough for them to make progress, the bad news is i'd be attacked from 2 sides by 3 opponents.

well, like i said, i can only wait. hopefully this will just be misplaced paranoia since serdoa has seemed genuine.

the thing that gets me about all this - i'm last in score

[meatbalz]

A diplo update is in order. Wall upon wall of text coming.


I got this from Serdoa a couple of hours after my paranoid post

hi mb,

I realized I had not answered to this email till now. So, I'll do that:

- NAP: No issue for me, though as you probably know I do not give much on NAPs anyway. Though we probably have to talk about economic assistance. That could include trade routes and cutting those might hurt you or me more then them - well, especially you
- EP spending limit is ok with me, though we will have to up that later to regain visibility on the graphs
- island is fine with me
- iron and marble/stone as well
- sharing communication is also fine and I think also necessary if we really want to work together
- military cooperation as it seems to make sense (e.g. no one of us has to ferry troops over half of the world just because the other decided to attack somewhere - not that this should be an issue ever if we talk enough with each other)
- keeping alliance hidden is ok with me and makes sense

And I agree it is sometimes vague, thats why I put some of my understanding down. But I agree, we basically work together first and foremost with the other one. I think we are already doing that in a good way, looking at marble and info-sharing.

So, let me know if everything's well over at your side of the world and why you did not want to contact me before settling

Kind regards,
Serdoa

[COLOR="SeaGreen"]Hahaha, well the reason I didn't contact you is: I'd decided since this was going to be an unusual type of game (sub-par leaders etc) that I would do a little role-playing and basically be a bastard in negotiations, first and foremost not contacting people until they'd contacted me back. That can be a bit of an issue when you're the first one with a work boat out meeting people (e.g. Sumeria), and in fact Sumeria and I would have no contact until he declared war and razed my city, accompanied by a friendly email... easy to be friendly when you've just accomplished what you want in a war and fear retaliaton.

Anyway what made me change my stance is not the fact I settled aggressively on you... that was all part of the plan. It was TT's continued pattern of erratic & frankly stupid behaviour in other RB games. If I'm going to devote several months to a game I don't want that to be ruined because I start next to TT. This, combined with the fact I'd already been pretty friendly in negotiations elsewhere anyway, made me think the role-playing was probably not a good idea and so I contacted you.

So the answer is... I didn't contact you because I was role-playing a bastard. How'd I do? :-D

In answer to the more serious questions
1) Ok to the NAP, we'll start at turn 150 and revisit when we're, I don't know, 5 turns from T150 or something. Not an issue for me.
2) Sorry but I'm not clear on what you mean by the economic assistance part
3) Ok to EP limit
4) Ok to waiting to settle the island and I've already followed this by sending a settler that was destined there (on the W part of the island) back to my mainland to found a city there instead
5) Ok to iron, stone/marble. I'll gift you iron once I secure a second source, and will send marble & stone whenever you need, subject to our coordination on wonders beforehand
6) Ok to sharing communication. At the moment the only thing to update on is that I had asked Tatan for OB before this whole conspiracy came to light, and yesterday he sent me back one of the most transparent stalling emails you'll ever see.

"I may be willing to, but I need to discuss with my dedicated lurker Adlain, first. Sorry.

-Tatan"

7) Ok to military coordination, and I don't think crazy plans will be an issue but like you said, two heads are better than one in that regard
8) Ok to keeping the alliance hidden

For now things are fine. I have, for now, the strongest military which means I could fight off TT if he goes ape-shit. He's a big worry to me. I hope to get that iron for AH, otherwise TT could tech to HBR and give me trouble. Unless I get to Feudalism first, which will probably take a bit longer than I'd expected but should still be within the next handful of turns.

My economy is good thanks to GL and a quick currency beeline (no markets up yet though, or anywhere close). I think you'd mentioned this before but I'm honestly surprised people would gang up on my just for having one wonder, when everyone had a chance to build it and it was clear from T1 it would be key. Not sure why I need to be dogpiled just because I can prioritize better than other people. And it's not like it was cheap... I gave up a lot in the short term to build that thing, 2 settlers & 2 workers' worth. Anyway it's done now, and I'm not sure people realize that thanks to the fact there are islands, closing borders on me would hurt but not by a huge amount.

Anyway the biggest threat to win the game isn't me, it's CH. He has a massive food & population lead, on one side he has AH who's worried about TT and has a settling agreement with CH, on the other he has Tatan who has struck me so far as not great at diplo and not terribly experienced.

What else to say. Military plans of course. For now let me say that TT is a blood enemy of mine in this game and I plan to retaliate. I will play it cool on diplo with Greece/AdHoc but if he's receptive and declines to close borders/sends me iron, I will try to extract concessions from him in exchange for letting him join vs Sumeria when the time comes. It'll be many turns before this happens but that's the general thought. I'd love to hear what you have planned for Tatan.

There was something else I wanted to run by you - how long do you think it will be before you have a Great Person you'd be willing to trade? Specifically, either a Prophet or a Scientist. I'm going to take a wild stab here, let me know if I'm way off, but I'm guessing Parthenon/GLib is on the cards for you, right? And would the GA from Music have anything to do with your anti-Tatan plans :-D

Sorry for the wall of text, but hopefully this is a decent update on what's going on in Arabia - looking forward to the Russian update.

MB [/COLOR]

You certainly did will on the "being a bastard"-part Though I have neglected to settle those islands and probably crammed more cities on my starting island then everyone else did. So I had to blame partly me for it. I also would have thought that - like in PBEM7 - people would talk about settling instead of simple doing it.

Though, Tatan was worse then you in this regard. After he settled the first city on the island to my north without talking with me he sent me an email telling me that the spot is nearer to him then to me so I should not have issues (well, we already culturally crush there - over the water - so I guess my cities are pretty much right next to this spot but anyway) with him settling it. Well, I told him I have and he should ask me before he settles that island again. And as far as I can see he settled again there - without sending an email. I am pretty sure he will tell me that he never got my email or such bullshit when I ask him.

Anyway, on to your points:

- economic assistance: you wrote that the NAP would include that we would not economically assist another civ if the other one considers this civ unfriendly. But economic assistance is pretty vague. Clearly, no funding and stuff, no question. But what would be if I had trade routes with someone you consider unfriendly to your civ? Should I cut it, even if I get more income then he is with them? Even if I use that money to help you upgrade troops? So, I simply do not want that one of us considers the NAP broken because the other one did not instantly cut trade routes with some other civ. On that point: Lets add that if one of us ever thinks that the NAP was broken he will talk with the other one about it (except for cases without doubt like war declaration) instead of simply being pissed, ok?

- regarding Tatan: I was wondering if I am not included in the emails of the dogpile-group already for refusing to close borders or if simply nobody is writting anything. After your info about Tatans stalling, I would guess there is really nobody writing something. Anyway, what do I have planned for him? Well, it depends a little bit. I will put down a city on the northern island soon (2-3 turns) and wait for his reaction. At this time I should hopefully have Parthenon finished and should be able to set all my cities except for my cap to military production if necessary.

If he does not try to attack and does not increase in soldier points, I will probably beeline to some unit and try to kill him then fairly quickly with hopefully a tech advantage. We'll see. Maybe I can take the island first with HAs - it really depends on too many points right now. One being that I need to scout first and get some more idea of his territory. I guess you do not have some of his lands mapped out and could share that info?

- regarding CH: I think he found himself in a good position or was really good at diplo. Tatan expands in my direction, he has, as you say, an agreement about settling with AH. That makes it relatively easy to expand and tech away. Though I think for now we unfortunately cannot do much about it. We'll have to deal with Tatan and TT first. But if we can be successful with that, we should be in a better position then CH and AH. We only have to make sure that they are not helping our targets (which will be near impossible I fear, at least for the Tatan-case).

- regarding GP: I am not sure how long it takes till the next GP, but shouldn't be too long probably. Either Scientist or Prophet it will be I guess (if I do not get unlucky and get an Artist). If it is a scientist, I want to get my own academy going. Though if it is a prophet I would have to look into it, there might be a chance that I do not need him. You know what, let me take a look ingame, so I have a better idea what GP to expect at what turn and till then you can think about what you would want to trade for it

Guess I answered now all points, let me know if I forgot anything.

Kind regards,
Serdoa

So I have one ally, probably until the end of the game. I think Serdoa will have Parthenon up shortly, and most likely GLib. That should mean that, with a secure flank each and our strong research rates, the next few turns become critical. If I can secure my flank against TT, and he against Tatan, Serdoa and I will be in a strong position.


The thing I've had front-and-center in my mind for the last 10-15 turns is the following - Ad Hoc is the key to everything from the broader balance of power perspective. On top of that, diplo had been friendly and we were talking about an iron trade which. It had been 5 days since I'd heard from him so I chased him and the result is....

[COLOR="SeaGreen"]Ahoy matey,

it's been a couple of days so I thought I'd check back in. How are you getting on with our mutual friend? ;-) You'd asked me to let you know re: unit movement... well, nothing indicative of HBR/construction yet, but he does have a trireme sniffing around my lands now. I'm not really sure what to make of it - well, I kind of do, there's no purpose to a trireme except to use it against galleys.

I also wanted to ask you if you'd managed to meet Russia yet - the offer to arrange a meeting is still on the table if you want.

Listen, so far you've been nothing but friendly to me and I think we can work well together, and right now it looks like it's in our interest to do so. If the offer to supply me with iron is still on the table, I'm still interested. Last time I just asked what you wanted, I thought I'd maybe make the first offer to see if we're in the same ballpark.

Right now open borders with you are adding 8 gold/turn since every trade route with one of your cities is worth 3/turn versus 2/turn for a trade route between my own cities. Let's say I double it to 16/turn.

On top of that you mentioned a unit swap but I'd be happy to gift you the axe you need, and you'd get a double-promoted one thanks to AGG+barracks. As long as that axe, or any unit it's promoted to, is never used in combat or for pillaging (in general, in any hostile way) against me by either yourself or anyone you might gift it to.

Regards, BQB [/COLOR]

The answer:

Well met laddie

i think myself and my southern neighbour are starting on a slippery path which will only end one way. i've claimed the majority of the southern isle which i'm guessing is not going down too well with him at the moment and i'll have sufficent garrisons in my cities to guarantee their protection from any horse based attackers. He is also aware due to a scouting workboat of my future access to another source of Iron. he has made overtures through a third party that he was willing to do a deal for this iron and you can guess what he was going to do with it.i think me sending you iron will irritate, lol, TT so i think war becomes inevitable at this point.

i'n currently finishing a couple of Iron based builds which i should whip next turn and will then be able to offer you the iron, it will be only on a turn by turn basis for now until i get my other iron source up and running but it will be for at least 5 turns, which gives me times for Odeons,Cats and Galleys and you time for some Spears and what else you want to build. i've already had preliminary discussions with CH about keeping out of anything i do to the south with me not getting involved in anything he does to the east.... which i guess secures you a bit more as well

16GPT sounds fair, i was going to ask for 18 but would have settled for 15 so i think we were both thinking on the same lines.

i've just finished T69, so i'll whip on T70 and offer the Iron on T71.

i've now got a galley to the east of the central isle so i'm hopeful of meeting Serdoa in the next few turns.

The axe is going to my Capital as MP, i don't know if you know books by David Gemmell but one of the central characters is Druss the Legend, an axeman. if i'm defending against you with Druss in my Capital i'm going to be in so much trouble i don't hink its going to matter lol.

Map wise have you done an independent check on number of land tiles and the size of the secondary isles.

i came up with 620 and as i've said i think we have six homeland isles at 64 tiles, six secondary islands at 30 tiles and the central isle at 21 tiles. if these figures are correct that would leave 35 land tiles unaccounted. i have 3 for my Iron isle which leaves 32 and i've already mapped 18 single mountain islands, so 14 land tiles still unaccounted for which means not everyone gets a 3 tile island. if you disagree with any of the figures can you let me know.

i think working together in the forseeable future is in both our best interests.

Keep safe laddie

Ad Hoc, Battle King

Can I get a :dancing5:! The importance of this response simply cannot be underestimated. Getting Ad Hoc on my side is a massive coup. If the iron trade goes through well, I'll bring him in on my plans for Sumeria. I haven't updated Serdoa yet but will do so shortly.


What this means in a nutshell is
- on my right is a friend and ally I secured through friendly diplo once it became apparent my other neighbour was a nutcase
- on my left is said nutcase, and somebody no-one will trust because of his willingness to break a NAP (unsure whether he told anyone actually, but I'll make damn sure they find out through AH)
- my neighbour's neighbour is my friend, and my neighbour's enemy
- with Serdoa and AH not closing borders, Cyneheard & TT are unlikely to.
- that also means TT is highly unlikely to secure the metal source he needs, or the political support for an attack (might be up for debate since they could just puppet him around to stunt me)

So all my little hints to Ad Hoc have had the desired effect, and my diplo with Serdoa has also had results. My cities bordering Sumeria have
- 1 CG1 archer, 1 archer, 1 chariot
- 1 CG1 archer, 1 chariot (another archer & chariot coming shortly)

Let's see if I can weather the next 5 turns and then I'll reassess.

These next turns will be key because TT will be steaming mad and, as Ad Hoc says, with little room to expand given the N island has also been claimed. I strongly believe he will break the NAP we have.

More food for thought - I haven't replied to AH yet, but there's a clear reference to a third party getting involved in his message....


I want to make one thing clear - when the game started, I was hoping to start next to Sumeria and saw them as my ideal ally - also AGG, etc... I said as much in this thread. But TT's behaviour in this & other games quickly made it obvious that not only can he not be trusted, but that I could be putting hundreds of hours into a game only to have it ruined by him (it's arguably happened twice already at RB)... well, I'm not having that. So that sent me running to Russia's manly arms. Right now it looks like TT is screwed.

[Bobchillingworth]

Interesting update. The dark green-on-black text you're using for your conversation replies is a little difficult to read however.