I leave a couple of tiles unrevealed to go a bit wider, and we've got even more goodies over here! SW-SW next?
Having a close-up look at the gems and silver - the gems are on the coast, so the site between gems and wheat looks very nice. Silver has a peak to its west and with all the plains around it I hope there's some food in the fog.
(February 18th, 2018, 04:59)shallow_thought Wrote: I'm not much on C&D, but looking at those crop yield figures, most people are still working 3f tiles. Has everyone logged in and re-allocated since the border pops? Someone's working a 1f tile. Someone Exp pushing the hammers? I'm guessing the average is being rounded, so we don't get to try and do a more detailed analysis. But it does look as if we're a bit lucky with the 2f2h tile at the moment.
I logged in before most other players last turn, it looks like ten players are working a 2/2/0 tile now...
An updated sandbox with the tiles revealed so far. At turn 17, the point where we need to decide between worker-worker-settler-settler or worker-settler-worker-settler.
Simba here messed up our scouting a bit. Depending on his moves I'm thinking SE-SW or SE-E next. But corn and stone! Just as we started speculating mids in our chat.
Group 4: Strangers and Kingmakers AdrenIer, Aretas, B4ndit, Dark Savant, Donovan Zoi, Naufrager, Rusten, Superdeath
Alright, this is the high-variance group. At least I assume so as I really do not know these guys. I think at least AdrenIer has played here, but I just haven’t ended up lurking his play. Couple of other names seem familiar too. Apparently Rusten is a civ vet that mackoti recognized from back in the days so depending on how he adjusts he might be quite good. Naufrager and superdeath are supposed to be first-timers, but that does not really say anything. Many players have played quite well here in their first showing.
Anyways, some of these guys probably do at least OK and maybe even better. However, this group will probably include 1-4 players, who will just be food to better players and the location of these players might even be the biggest factor deciding this game. At least the first indications of are already there. Archery opening from Aretas seems really bad and I’m willing to bet a lot of money that the player who did not SIP is also part of this group. (Dunno if we discussed it here or in our chat, but OH noticed this earlier – I guess someone was showing up only 1 hammer in demos)
As a conclusion, even with the risk of newbies actually being really good. Please let us still have some of these guys or at least one of the weaker guys as a neighbor. In the end leaders, civs and small differences in land quality just matter that much. Meanwhile geopolitical setup and the skill of your immediate neighbor can easily decide games between equally skilled players.
I have lurked these forums for a while, but most players of that fourth group are unfamiliar for me also. But I did read through Dark Savants thread from the last pitboss and he played quite well indeed for a first timer.
So if he is next to us we are not gonna have an easy snack, as Gavagai can attest.
Our scout is still dodging lions. I'm thinking W+something or SE-S next.
A handful of people including us finished a tech. I haven't yet calculated whether it can be something else than Mining. And Aretas grew to size 2. Gotta keep the score lead and screw someone's life with warrior rush?
I'll do my opposition research in a similar fashion to Fintourist, split into groups by how I think they will perform, with comments on the player and their leader/civ combination. We'll start with the frontrunners, one of whom I expect to win the game:
Frontrunners
dtay - Genghis Khan (Agg/Imp) of Celtia (Gallic Warrior/Dun)
Dtay suffers from tall poppy syndrome. He starts most games ridiculously well and attracts unwanted attention to try and drag him down. He seems to hate building roads, which may have something to do with his fast starts but can leave him vulnerable. He's picked a warlike combo which I wouldn't like to start near.
Top five finish. Would swap combo.
Mackoti - Suleiman (Imp/Phi) of France (Musketeer/Salon)
Mack ditched Fin/Cre/Ind/Phi before taking Suleiman so I guess he wanted Imp. He's going to know how to get the most out of Phi too. France is a great civ and he's going to make some nice conquests around knights/muskets.
He lost out to tbs in pb31 (which may have been due to a dumb move on my part), so he's out for revenge and will get a top three finish. Would swap combo.
The Black Sword - Pericles (Cre/Phi) of Zulu (Impi/Ikhanda)
TBS took Pericles in the second round, does he have a plan, or did he fear getting a choice of IND leaders with a re-roll? TBS only ever fails to win when dtay stops him. He's beaten everyone in this field and doesn't have much to prove, so maybe he'll take it easy this time? Even with a long sequence of nerfs Zulu are still intimidating.
I'm expecting tbs to be first or second in this game. Hopefully second. Would swap combo.
plako - Justinian (Imp/Spi) of Inca (Quechua/Terrace)
I'd sell fintourist to get this combo. Plako has it. Plako isn't the all-conquering behemoth he once was, supposedly because he hasn't been putting so much effort in, but with a great civ and a high-skill leader (and decent neighbour luck) I expect him to engage and possibly pull off the culture victory that we were planning if we got SPI.
(February 20th, 2018, 03:15)Old Harry Wrote: I'd sell fintourist to get this combo.
You pretty much invalidated my final "opponent analysis" with this comment, but let's post it anyways..
Group X: Us
OH takes over lurker entertainment duty so I’ll conclude my stuff with introducing ourselves. Lurkers could call it soul searching, shameless bragging or something else! And apologizes to my teammates already..
Anyways, it’s only turn 8 and I think I can safely say that we have never had a stronger team entering the game. Myself, OH and THH obviously learned a lot from PB18 (if you spend 1,5 years intensely playing a game and do not learn anything – well, that would be alarming) and should come back stronger. In addition we have now Shallow Thought and Hitru joining us. Much thanks to these guys, we have never had such an active team chat discussion going on this early in the game and even better, it’s not only increased quantity, but quality as well.
Looking back at our previous mutual games, PB13 & PB18: In big picture, I can’t really take any personal credit for any specific part of our game – be it early game, late game, micro, macro, whatever. On the other hand, I’m absolutely not giving OH any personal credit either. What I mean: It’s actually pretty amazing, how we have managed to accumulate 2-3 years of combined game time with continued high-intensity team work. Always teaming up to discuss smaller and bigger decisions. And I don’t think we have ever had a single conflict (or at least OH is too polite to communicate any frustrations).
Thankfully we are not completely similar though and have different civ perversions. I expect OH to just mention at some point that he has built a spreadsheet including a GP plan for the next 50 turns. And if you’re reading this thread in the hope of seeing maps filled with arrows a.k.a evil plans to eat neighbors – I don’t think OH will let you down. Personally I enjoy a lot planning the early game after the initial opening, when things start getting microwise really complex. Say, turns 40-80. That’s kind of a sudoku on steroids for me. In addition I feel quite motivated as this period plays a hugely important role in hopefully setting us up for a competitive mid-game position, where we have multitude of options and overall fun plays ahead.
THH has been in the team from the start. While he won’t spend all of his free time spamming our team chat and discussing where can we get that extra foodhammer, I expect a wild THH to appear in the time of greatest need and provide his insights on macro decisions that really matter.
And as already stated, really glad to have the new guys in the team as well. No reason to categorize anybody when we have not even reached turn 10, but in any case Shallow Thought has already challenged us positively and added to our thinking regarding the overall game plan – part of his thinking (culture win optimization and analysis of opponent picks) is also already visible in this thread. Hitru is a civ4 vet with previous focus in deity SP and it seems that he is so far enjoying our endless micro iterations. His touch is going to be visible already in our opening. And the most amazing part: Apparently Hitru’s better half is also globally lurking this game.
Is this the first sign of cracks in our team? Are we about to implode under the weight of five years of unspoken grievance and slights, thousands of turns worth of itterated micro and the pressure of life at the top?
I'd never sell Fintourist, not even for four settled great generals at the capital.
Great analysis as always, I'm only going to differ with you on a few minor points as I do my list. But hopefully it won't just be repeating what you've already said.
I'm also really looking forward to seeing how our team micros the hell out of turns 40-100, as the options get more and more complex but those marginal gains can put us in position to make the necessary conquests to compete in a game this big. We're obviously hoping to get someone weak as a neighbour, but even a strong neighbour can be vulnerable if you time your attack right, and every extra hammer or beaker can increase that window of opportunity.
are already there. Archery opening from 
Plako isn't the all-conquering behemoth he once was, supposedly because he hasn't been putting so much effort in, but with a great civ and a high-skill leader (and decent neighbour luck) I expect him to engage and possibly pull off the culture victory that we were planning if we got SPI.
You pretty much invalidated my final "opponent analysis" with this comment, but let's post it anyways..
I'd never sell Fintourist, not even for four settled great generals at the capital.