Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Nope, I think he's talking about Rowain. Rowain's obsession with Pocketbeetle is really quite bizarre, and I can't make a bit of sense about it.

I agree. Earlier, someone posted that Rowain could still be a wolf, and I strongly agreed. But right now, I'm more sold on JKaen than Rowain. So I'm keeping my vote where it is. After all, I let myself get moved from voting for you a couple times last game, and had I had the conviction to strongly accuse you on day 4 or 5, Roland may have been spared.

So my question... at what point do I move my vote from JKaen to Rowain, or do you move your vote to JKaen?

[scooter]

So my question... at what point do I move my vote from JKaen to Rowain, or do you move your vote to JKaen?

I'm not sure honestly.... I think we'll see how things unfold tomorrow. I'd consider voting for JKaen too, as he seems to be re-playing the Irgy role from last game - the occasional post that means pretty much nothing at all.

[Roland]

In fact:

Villagers will act as a pack more often than wolves

All other things aside, we're wiser to look at players who are playing as individuals, following other individuals or groups - essentially the ones trying to fit into a pack but still not being part of the pack.

Oh irony, how I love your cruel beauty.

This is exactly how Jkaen has been acting. He's either an inexperienced 'Wolf trying to follow the leader, or an inexperienced Villager trying the same. His behavior with regards to following others' leads is in no way indicative of him being a 'Wolf any more than it is of him being a Villager! Mind you, I'm not saying we shouldn't lynch him - he's on my list for a few reasons - but we need to come up with something more concrete.

As an aside, I know that Roland must be laughing at me, because I tend to vote impulsively and don't articulate the reasons as well as I should.

You betcha! Don't let that deter you, though. Everyone is useful - it's just a matter of finding out how.

Nope, I think he's talking about Rowain. Rowain's obsession with Pocketbeetle is really quite bizarre, and I can't make a bit of sense about it. He's been extremely convinced that PB is a wolf for the entire game, but he's never actually had any real reasons... The only people who are 100% sure if someone is a villager/wolf are the wolves themselves, which is why I am voting for Rowain.

Which is exactly why he wouldn't go on a crusade to get someone lynched without any proof. Thus, it's highly probable he's a misguided Villager on a vendetta - and if you need to ask ME why I say that, look at Day 2 of WW2 (sorry Meiz). I expected better judgment from you scooter.

I'm fine with Rowain being on the block, but I won't be a bit surprised when he turns up a Villager.

[Roland]

Lynch:
3v: zakalwe ( Sandover, Lewwyn, Bruindane )
3v: Rowain ( novice, pocketbeetle, scooter )
2v: Jkaen ( fire&ice, Mr. Nice Guy )
1v: pocketbeetle ( Rowain )
1v: Meiz ( Irgy )

1. fire&ice votes Jkaen
   
2. Mr. Nice Guy votes Jkaen
   
3. Rowain votes pocketbeetle
   
4. novice votes Rowain
   
5. Sandover votes zakalwe
   
6. Lewwyn votes zakalwe
   
7. Bruindane votes zakalwe
   
8. Irgy votes Meiz
   
9. pocketbeetle votes Rowain
   
10. scooter votes Rowain
    

[Jkaen]

Oh irony, how I love your cruel beauty.

This is exactly how Jkaen has been acting. He's either an inexperienced 'Wolf trying to follow the leader, or an inexperienced Villager trying the same. His behavior with regards to following others' leads is in no way indicative of him being a 'Wolf any more than it is of him being a Villager! Mind you, I'm not saying we shouldn't lynch him - he's on my list for a few reasons - but we need to come up with something more concrete.

Thank you for the (kind of) support. I am quite willing to admit I am an inexperienced villager.

As for MNG posting F&I's accusation, how am I meant to respond to that, since he rather handily posted my defense to those accusations in the very same thread (and then ignored them)

The reason I have not posted stronger defense than I have currently is that I have not seen any clear argument against me (apart from Meiz, which I think I answered in some detail).

I have not been that aggresive, because I hav no strong ideas on werewolves yet, and unlike others I saw no benefit of going on campaigns against people from day 1 on flimsy evidence and I wanted some time to form opinions, but it seems I need to start throwing suspect names around now.

Lewwyn was the first one to catch my attention. On day 1 it seems like he was buddying up to me slightly, when attention started to drift towards me on day 2 he dumped me and seems to be linking up with 'safer' villagers

Rowain is more suspicious, I tried to give him as much time to post some decent reasoning against PB before I switched onto him. I feel that if he actually posted his reasons for suspecting PB it may drop him down my list, but right now its too suspicious. Also not being willing to switch your vote to save youself makes no sense to me (unless you are pretty certain you would be switching onto the baner)

Novice was getting up on my suspect list, but his day defining switch has knocked him off for me.

Thats the main ones off the top of my head, will re-read the thread and see if anything else jumps out (or if I find a clear accusation to defend, rather than 'trying to run under the radar' which half the villag is doing)

[Roland]

Thank you for the (kind of) support. I am quite willing to admit I am an inexperienced villager.

You're welcome. Just don't expect me to save you if there ends up being a solid reason to lynch you. I've no problems defending someone if I feel the accusations against them are unfounded, or at least misguided. Logic and reason are the best weapons we have. If we can't stand upon our reasoning without falling down, we have no way to win, in my humble opinion.

Lewwyn was the first one to catch my attention. On day 1 it seems like he was buddying up to me slightly, when attention started to drift towards me on day 2 he dumped me and seems to be linking up with 'safer' villagers

It should be noted that this is as valid a strategy for a Villager as it is for a 'Wolf. No Villager wants to be associated with a 'Wolf - even a potential one - as it incriminates them, as well. That's bad for them, and the Village. I'm not defending Lewwyn any more than I've defended you, just showing both signs of the coin.

Rowain is more suspicious, I tried to give him as much time to post some decent reasoning against PB before I switched onto him. I feel that if he actually posted his reasons for suspecting PB it may drop him down my list, but right now its too suspicious. Also not being willing to switch your vote to save youself makes no sense to me (unless you are pretty certain you would be switching onto the baner)

Rowain certainly isn't helping himself out any after yesterday, but that doesn't make him a 'Wolf. Villagers are just as, if not more, likely to go on a misguided crusade. Remember: 'Wolves need to blend in, and stay low. Drawing attention to yourself is only worthwhile if it grants you something in return - like guaranteed cover. Crusading against a 'Wolf (which only a fellow 'Wolf would know) in order to save yourself, while gaining trust from the Village, is one example - but far from the only one.

Thats the main ones off the top of my head, will re-read the thread and see if anything else jumps out (or if I find a clear accusation to defend, rather than 'trying to run under the radar' which half the villag is doing)

I think your voting pattern is clear enough reason for people to be suspicious of you, especially when you don't back it up with much reasoning. I'm not attacking you for casting votes via RP, nor even for following what others are doing. However, you voted to lynch MJW - a Villager - on Day 1. On Day 2, you threw an early vote onto Mr. Nice Guy - again, no reason given, that I can recall - before moving onto pocketbeetle (per Rowain's request, perhaps?). Then when pocketbeetle posted his grand defense / accusation, you switched right over to Rowain. You flip-flop your votes and don't post much (if anything) to explain your reasoning. You didn't vote to lynch Selrahc - a Werewolf - although that in and of itself is minimal at this point (unless you're a 'Wolf).

Frankly, I'm more inclined to lynch you than I am Rowain at this point, because although your style can apply equally well to a Villager or a 'Wolf, only a suicidal (or back-stabbing) 'Wolf would make such a bold ploy as to gun heavily for someone - especially across multiple days. Uberfish is about the only 'Wolf (during WW2) who I've seen backstab a fellow 'Wolf to gain cover, and he did it preemptively - it was planned out ahead of time, before he ever was even considered a lynch target. I'm not convinced Rowain would follow such a strategy - it's hugely risky, very costly even if you succeed, and success is no guarantee of victory in the end-game. It would be highly ironic if both pocketbeetle and Rowain are 'Wolves, but I equate those odds to winning the lottery. :neenernee Pocketbeetle comes in a little more suspicious than Rowain, if only because (ironically) his grand scheme was out of self-defense from Rowain, but I'm still far from convinced he's a 'Wolf.

I'm withholding my vote for the time being. I want to see the rest of the Village chime in - we still have some people who haven't even posted, let alone voted - but I'm formulating my target. I'm hoping today will be at least as productive as yesterday, regardless of the outcome (lynched Villager or 'Wolf). We shall see.

[Jkaen]

Ok, then will break down the reasoning on my votes. I am going to ignore if I was right or wrong, as obviously I did not know at the time:

Day 1, Vote 1: Meiz
First vote on day 1, I had nothing to go on at all, so this was pure RP

Day 1, Vote 2: MJW
I wanted my vote to actually mean something, and nobody else had gone with Meiz, so I had the choice of Cull (quiet) or MJW (loud and misguided). I decided to go with MJW thinking he would be disruptive to the village. Having a bit more experience with the game now, I think this was the wrong call as I now believe loud would have drawn more comments and been more useful.

Day 2, Vote 1: MNG
Decided that falling back on the RP vote of Meiz was a bit weak for day 2, so decided i needed some other critieria. At this point my only weak suspicion was Lewwyn, but I wanted tyo see if he continued being supportive of me. Hence I took the easy vote and went for the lowest poster, hoping it would cause him to post, or as a marker until somebody came up with an idea I could follow

Day 2, Vote 2: PB
Rowain asked for support on PB, I had assumed that he would let us know why at some point (otherwise why would we support it?) I guessed maybe part of his theory included seeing who was happy to jump onto the vote without inital reason or somesuch. However as the day went on it was clear he wanted us to vote on PB just 'because' which I was not happy with

Day 2, Vote 3: Rowain
With my vote for PB having no solid reason still, I decided it needed to change, and I need to head back and check what it was, but PBs defense post swayed my decision back towards his accuser. If Rowain is a villager, why won't he at least help us out and c=share this theory that so marks PB

Day 3, Vote 1: Rowain
Seems people think I am hiding behind RP, and its not as enjoyable as Zak or Brund so I will dump it. My view on Rowain has not changed since yesterday. I think the lynching did not reveal anything about the nature of him, so I will stick on Rowain

[Rowain]

Furthermore, it could even be argued that you're a wolf who has overplayed their hand and therefore was being discarded.

So I cast my vote early in day 2 and all is fine but at the end of day my hand is suddenly overplayed . If you were a villlager Selrahc would have been on you long time ago. Afterall my post and my asking for support does take all responsibility from everybody else. If you turn out a villager I'm lynched next day so Selrahc avoiding to vote for you but jumping on me is only explainable if you are a wolf (special one to boot) and I'm the villager

You've been repeating the same things since Day 1: "Pb is a wolf. I don't know why, but I'm really really sure, vote for him!"

And as usual a little lie mixed into it.

Blah blah blah.

I call you out on a untruth and you try to use bla blabla as argument. Really convincing

Do I read that right? You're trying to take credit for Selrahc being lynched, despite the fact you never typed a single line of text about him?

No but it was a direct reply to your theory that I obfuscate others theories. If I were obfuscating theories so much Selrahc would still be alive but you would swing.

BAD - VILLAGER - BEHAVIOUR, POSSIBLE WOLF.

Howl what you want.
But calling a wolf a wolf is not bad behaviour. It is what all villagers try to do here. Those 8 lynching MJW and those 9 lynching Selrahc did the same. The first were wrong the laters right.
I'm convinced that you are a wolf. I believe you are the voider. And you can be sure I will vote for you until one of us swings or I'm eaten.

[Roland]

I appreciate the insight into your votes.

Day 3, Vote 1: Rowain
Seems people think I am hiding behind RP, and its not as enjoyable as Zak or Brund so I will dump it. My view on Rowain has not changed since yesterday. I think the lynching did not reveal anything about the nature of him, so I will stick on Rowain

Sorry to hear you won't be continuing your RPing. For what it's worth, I personally feel anyone who's accusing you of being a 'Wolf based upon your RPing is grasping at straws because they have nothing further to go on. Not everyone's as critical as me, though. Just remember: at the end of the day, this is all just a game, and the sole intention is to have fun. If RPing makes you happy then by all means do it - forget anyone who tries to take away from that. Don't be afraid to do what you feel is right, and enjoyable.

[Lewwyn]

Long Post guys!

I'll start with Irgy:

The person that I've avoided mentioning above so as to focus on him specifically is Meiz. Here's my case:

Mayor votes, a close interaction with Selrahc. Selrahc voted for him as mayor, Meiz supported this move himself, but nothing much came of it. This could be an attempt to raise an early wolf-mayor candidate, which failed because the villagers weren't interested and the other wolves didn't want to be too suspicious. Or conversely an intentionally failed attempt to associate some mayor votes with each other to point to later with the argument that wolves wouldn't want to be mayor - this is more likely given Selrahc's experience last game. Or it could of course be innocent (for Meiz's part anyway). Wouldn't put much stock in this on its own.

Lynch votes though, Meiz is the wagon-driver. Never the first vote, but always the vote to turn it into something. Both Lewwyn and Cull on day 1. Day 2 Mardoc, which failed to get off the ground, then Selrahc for a while, but switching to novice when Selrahc started to look dangerous. Then onto Rowain when the chance arose. Despite this being a shorter paragraph than the last, this is the core of my case.

FWIW, I found him by looking for suspicious Rowain bandwagoners, then found the pattern continued to previous votes.

So, wolf, or just an innocent but fickle stirrer? His posts that I've looked at just now certainly make an effort to seem as if there's reasons for his votes every time, which belies the fact that he's jumped onto almost every wagon he's had a chance to. With the notable exception of Pocketbeetle, who he's conspicuously avoided and effectively protected. This connection won't mean much though until we know more about one or the other of them.

I like this argument and think it has merit. As I've said I think Irgy is a villager and I rather like his judgment. Now, I'm not changing my vote yet, but I will hold onto him as a suspect now.

Suspects:
PB
Zakalwe
Meiz

The problem with this list is that all three are part of the Rowain swing and I doubt there were that many wolves on the swing. I believe at most there were 3 wolves on the swing. Selrahc, PB and then either Meiz or Zakalwe. So this means that while I suspect Meiz and Zakalwe are wolves, I suspect one is a wolf and the other is a villager. I will continue to listen for other people's votes I'm quite curious to see.

I'm also greatly disturbed by the votes on Rowain. I find it highly suspicious that the votes on him continue to build even though Rowain's "crusade" against PB is actually more villager-ish than wolfish. Those people voting for Rowain continue to say that he is too sure of himself. Rowain has only said that his theory is PB is a wolf(I suppose even Void-wolf?) and that he believes his theory. That's no where near being sure. And, please, I was sure Meiz was a WW in WW2, I was sure Selrahc was the Devil, I was sure scooter was a WW until I wasn't sure. You can not use the certainty argument against Rowain.

I also direct you again to my post about the voting patterns surrounding PB:

Compare Day 1 and Day : PB is up on the block both days. Both days he ahs a reasonable amount of votes that if enough people swung could get killed. On both days there was some competition. Day 1, MJW and myself, Day 2 Novice and Selrahc. The patterns mirror themselves as the votes against me dissipated in Day 1 and turned into a huge swing towards cull. The same thing happened here on Day 2. The novice votes dissipated and a huge swing began on Rowain. What was the single constant in these two days? pocketbeetle was on the block and in danger.

Thats just the facts people the same scenario worked out on both days and PB was the constant. He was also the constant beneficiary. Can you dispute this?

GES has commented on this, but no one else has really responded to it. Currently, I am not voting for PB but I want people to recognize the way he has been getting help from late voting swings.

I am comfortable voting for Zakalwe, PB or Meiz. Currently have my vote on Zakalwe because I found his arguments after the lynch to be obtuse and obfuscating. Here is the exchange in particular that I am referring too:

Maybe I'm taking this out of context (I'm not sure I understand what the context actually is), but this sounds like a "why did nobody come to rescue me" kind of argument, which makes no sense. If you're a wolf then I'd say your comrades were most likely voting for various other candidates all along.

That's kind of the idea behind a late swing: if you were a wolf and got lynched by a sudden late swing, it's quite likely that your fellow wolves would be "left in the dust", as MNG put it, which can be a very effective way to expose them. Just look at how the remaining two wolves were suddenly exposed by Serdoa's last minute switch to lynch Scooter in WW2.

This referring to Rowain's comment regarding where were his "comrades". I took notice because A) it DID take a quote out of context and then it tried to apply some logic about catching wolves with a late swing to the current situation involving Rowain. The issue is he doesn't clarify and the whole comment comes off as negatively reflecting upon Rowain, when in fact:

Indeed, then who was exposed by Novice and Sandover's late swing? Those who were voting for Rowain, correct? Because if you use the Serdoa analogy, you are saying the wolves were actively trying to save one of their own by lynching someone else, ie: Rowain.

Here I point out that his logic and example of the Serdoa switch actually show that wolves, if you applied his logic would be Rowain voters. Looking back I can also say that the late swing TOWARDS Rowain also could be used to in the PB group since the late swing could have been ann attempt to expose those voters too, but that is a tangent of the main point here, which is Zakalwe's comment is subtly piling onto the lynch Rowain crowd using arguments that SOUND good but when applied don't actually work out the way he meant them.

He the goes on to say:

I'm not sure I follow you, Lewwyn. Are you saying my argument is invalid because it incriminates myself? I was talking of the hypothetical situation where Rowain is a wolf and we had confirmation of this (by having him lynched). In that case, we should look for wolves among those who were left in the dust. His claim that he was innocent because nobody tried to rescue him (if that was what he meant) made no sense to me.

As things actually played out, that's not what happened. Rowain's role remains unknown, and those who voted for him (including me) obviously cannot be cleared of suspicion, because we could have been trying to draw votes away from Selrahc.

I was basically just making a general comment about how late swings can be revealing.

He's basically telling us that yes he was creating a whole new scenario of what COULD have happened if Rowain was lynched as a wolf. Again he's using fictional possibilities to portray Rowain in a negative light. He then takes the argument he was using in the original post and says we can't use it because what he is proposing never actually happened. But then he doesn't acknowledge that his very argument could then be used against him now based on what actually happened.

I then said:

I was basically just making a general comment about how late swings can be revealing.

Yes, know. And I was making a specific point about what this latest lynch's late swings have revealed.

Are you being obtuse on purpose Mr. Furrypaws?

Here I point out that I'm dealing with specifics of what happened while Zakalwe is simply clouding the issue with what could have happened. Its very misleading and helps to shine a negative light on Rowain, yay!

I goad him with my last line, but after this he ignores me. This can be interpreted as either suspicious or not suspicious, your call. I choose to believe that he is ignoring me and not engaging because he is arguing from a position of weakness and has been caught in an attempt to mislead and obfuscate.

Now take this and add it to his voting history:

Day 1, votes for PB
Day 2, votes for Rowain

In neither case do we know whether he has voted to lynch a WW or a Villager. But look he's basically playing both sides of the war here, voting both ways. But more importantly is the switching:

Day 1: Sandover, Lewwyn, pocketbeetle
Day 2: Mardoc, Fire&Ice, Uberfish, Rowain

At no point does he ever vote for the same person. He continues to spread the votes, spread suspicions, He even does it in RP. Almost everyone is mention in his RP at one point or another as suspicious! Even if not everyone reads it, if people only read some of the RP posts they'll get a whiff here and there.

Also Zakalwe is decidedly different from WW1. You may all say that this is him gaining experience and trying to act differently, I say its because he has a different role. People are who they are and they play roles the way they play roles. In WW1 he had a set theory and was pretty well following it. Now you tell me because he was wrong about TT that he has given up on theories completely? That he has thrown out his thinking cap? That he is willing to be suspicious of lots of people but NOT continue to vote for them? He has been decidedly a chameleon in this game. Read his posts f you do not believe. Maybe he has been RPing and playing the game in a more "light hearted" manner, but anyone who is roleplaying to his extent is definitely taking the game seriously, but he's not laying out his suspects as aggressively as he has in the past. Again I've already addressed the "mellowed out over the TT thing" part. His village won in the end. You think he believes he did poorly and must change his character? People think I did poorly in WW2, but I do not, and we won, so I'm not changing the way I play. If you think Zakalwe has learned his lesson, you're not giving enough credit to Zakalwe's spine and stubbornness.

When Zakalwe posts to refute this and post his suspects and theories to appear more "Zakalwe" like, I urge you to consider why he hasn't done this before hand. We are already on Day 3, patterns of play have been established! If this post forces him to break from his pattern, he is simply adapting. He will likely say I have given him little room to defend himself, and I have. That's only because I suspect him and I have these reasons.

I could go on but... well its a veritable wall as it is.

PLEASE READ IT. People asked Why I trust Rowain, why I suspect PB and the reasons why I suspect Zakalwe. Here you go. I may be right I may be wrong but consider that while my theory about Roland was incorrect it was a calculated risk based on the possibilities he was a WW or a liability to the village. I only hope that I am not misreading the tea leaves this time, though I feel more confident the more I read!