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I will have couple of hours later to defend myself and state my current thoughts. But just to get this out of the way, Pocketbeetle
For the reasons stated in my post http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post122209
Ichabod Wrote:Agree with uberfish yet again. Both points are very well put. PB and Rowain don't seem to have the normal wolf
behaviour, because they are putting themselves into a 1-1 situation. If one is lynched and turns out a villager, the other will probably
be lynched next. And that wouldn't be good for the wolves.
The difference is that Rowain has put himself to this situation, but PB has been forced to it. Sehlrac also voted against Rowain, which makes me think that Rowain might be innocent.
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This is my ppost from early day2 about PB
Rowain Wrote:Dear villagers:
Looking at the current lynch count makes me sad. We are far too spread around making it very easy for the wolves.
I come here to ask you to support my idea of lynching Pocketbeetle. I have a theory about some wolves and I would like to test it.
No, I can not guarrantee that he is a wolf - I'm not an omniscient, infailable oracle but imo he is the best target we have.
You see that's how sure I was at that point. But after the ending of Day2 I'm now convinced that PB is a wolf and even more I feel confident that he is the voider.
For me it is the only reasonable explaination why the swing happened against me and not against PB.
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pocketbeetle Wrote:- You can't try and defend Rowain by saying that "he's not sure of himself".
- Then when presented with a quote of Rowain directly contradicting this, go on to say that "being certain isn't wolfish".
- When I've already argued, reasonably successfully, that anyone being 100% certain of a wolf on Day 1 frankly just isn't a villager. No villager knows for certain on Day 1, and no non-seer is 100% certain on Day 2.
I think trying to read and understand your posts is a waste of time Lewwyn...because you don't seem to understand them yourself.
Sorry.
I have no idea what goes on in Rowain's mind. I can't tell if he's convinced or if he's lying. Here's what I do know. Rowain posted that he had a theory and that if the theory was proven right by lynching you then he would have two more suspects. That sounds to me like a man who is not completely sure of his theory. After that he began to post against you even more decidedly until he finally said he was convinced. That is a progression PB. A progressing theory will have different stages of belief! I have been defending Rowain for a while now and I've been defending him while his conviction grows. It is not my fault that I cannot predict how sure or unsure he will be next time he posts. I'm simply following along like you picking up his level of conviction as he goes. This does not mean that my defense is incorrect or inconsistent, only that as the game progresses it is OUTDATED.
You have NOT argued "reasonably successful" that anyone who is 100% certain of a wolf on Day 1 isn't a villager. I'm living proof of being convinced and being wrong! And Rowain as I have pointed out was not 100% convinced on Day 1. He had suspicions and suspicions grew, and conviction grew. To say he was convinced 100% on day 1 is a fallacy and a misdirection.
I understand myself perfectly fine. And I believe that is what you fear. You're only defense seems to be discrediting anyone who attacks you. It only adds to my suspicions. Others can read my posts, understand them, disagree or agree with them, but you cannot? Somehow I don't understand them myself? I wrote the dang things and I always reread them for readability, typos and consistency. Your brushoff makes me suspect you all the more. Failure to address accusation or even acknowledge them is denial. If you are a villager, this is why you are so focused on Rowain, this is why your attack on him is biased. He has attacked you and you no longer can see him as anything other than an enemy. Either you are a wolf, or you are a bad villager! 
It's easy to say that is it not, PB? Just sort of rolls off the tongue. Seems I understand myself and you better than you do.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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cross posted with Meiz and rowain 
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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Ok, time to try and be more helpful, I guess, so I will re-read various peoples posts and try and give an opinion. Because I am not suicidal, I will start at the bottom and work up.
Bob
Yes I know he is dead, but maybe he had some theories worth looking into?
His vote against MJW seems to be based on the wierd theories he was throwing around.
There is the post about what the seer/fool should do which probably got him ate
Can't really see anything useful from him.
Cull
Post 1&2 - no content
Post 3 - Votes for MJW due to difficult to understand posts, and that he may be a WW trying to hard
Post 4 - Comments rOland's game may have changed due to burn out, follows the Novice Mayor vote with little thought. Stays on MJW, but says lynching him (cull) is ok as we can afford a few bad lynches
Post 5- just saying he can't vote near deadline
Post 6- (night 1) Suggests lynching him or Lewwyn next makes most sense
Thinks Lewwyn and Roland are suspiscous (latter based on lower posting than WW2).
Post 7 - minor defense saying he is an experienced WW player
Post 8 - Says he is good at deception
Post 9 - Again says he can't post much, and then votes Sandover due to low post count and throwaway comments
Post 10 - clarifies #9
Post 11 - Sees the Sandover vote isn't working, says Mardocs theory is a bit optimistic and switches to PB with no obvious reason
Post 12 - Says he is glad we got a WW
Right that is it, analysis time.
Has not really contributed any arguments as yet. During night 1 he said that going for Lewwyn made sense, but then promtly forgot this and went for Sandover. Jumped onto the PB wagon with no explanation.
Got the MJW vote wrong, and didn't get the Selrahc one right.
Right now I would put Cull at about 7/10 on the suspicion-ometer
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Also cross posted with Roland:
Thanks buddy! I appreciate your vote on PB as a result of perhaps better evidence, like I say I'm willing to vote on PB or Zakalwe so I will weigh the two after more people have posted.
I agree that my sort of disclaimer at the end is self-serving and self-fulfilling, but I just want people to read it and actually put some thought into what I say not simply dismiss it as coming from the "guy who always votes wrong."
That said PB is doing an admirable job of trying to make people do just that. The equivalent of a child sting his fingers in his ears and screaming "I'm not listening".
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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Jkaen Wrote:Got the MJW vote wrong, and didn't get the Selrahc one right.
Right now I would put Cull at about 7/10 on the suspicion-ometer
To be fair, wolves will have better records than villagers because they know all the "right" answers. Also, half the people who voted for MJW, voted because he was MJW. I know I did.
I do appreciate this work. I hope its not too much trouble for you when you get to me, seeing as I have almost a hundred posts in this thread. I will be interested to hear what you have to say though. Maybe I'm just vain.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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Roland Wrote:Pardon me, but that's a crock of shit. I speak from personal experience. I was 100% certain Sandover was a 'Wolf on Day 1 in WW2. I was equally suspicious of scooter - on Day 1. Likewise for Serdoa - although, ironically, that could have cost us the game, rather than helped us. The only reasons I didn't suspect Selrahc even half as much on Day 1 was because he voted to lynch Sandover, and he was the Mayor. I called him out as suspicious, but I never followed up on it because 1) I didn't think he'd sell out a fellow 'Wolf, and 2) I didn't think he'd volunteer to be the Mayor if he was a 'Wolf. In hindsight, I had pegged 3 'Wolves and a Possessed all on Day 1, three of those four people I was dead certain of their team - and I was right.
Also, I think there's nothing at all difficult to follow in Lewwyn's post. He's doing a far better job of explaining himself than you are, while you're taking the Selrahc (WW2 and WW2) and Sandover (WW2) defense - ignore it, and hope it goes away.
Sorry pocketbeetle, but I'm not buying it. You always manage to convince yourself wrongly Roland.
It's funny watching it.
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pocketbeetle Wrote:You always manage to convince yourself wrongly Roland.
It's funny watching it.
If you're comfortable with your defense, I'm comfortable with my conviction. We'll see who's right and who's wrong soon enough. I have yet to lynch a Villager this round - and in fact lynched a 'Wolf yesterday, which is more than can be said of you - so I can afford to take a risk on you.
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MNG
Post 1 - MJW lynch vote and Uberfish Mayor for no reasons
Post 2 - switch to novice for mayor on trust, and lynch to me as I was quiet and not voting with any bloc
Post 3 - Lynch to MJW based on a confusing post. Post 4 expands upon this
Post 5 (Day 2) - GES for no reasons
Post 6 - Based on a Mardoc and a GES post decides he is not sure about GES and switches to novice because he ia Mayor
Post 7 - says he likes theories against me, novice and PB
Post 8 (night 2)- says he would have voted Rowain had he been on, reconfirms this in post 10
Post 9, 11, 13, 16 - no content
Post 12 (day 3) votes for me as I 'escaped suspicion due to late swings' also suspects PB
Post 14 - a Decent meaty post detailed his thoguhts about me, mainly referencing F&I's argument. Seems to argue that Selrahcs 'protect the new ones' theory benefits the wolves, because there MAY be new wolves. tries to get others to joining lynching me
Post 15 - argues that wolves are less likely to vote in groups than villagers
Post 17 - states he is suspicous of Rowain, but more of me
Analysis
Seems to jump around votes an awful lot. His theories against me seem to be based on trying to fly under the radar and that I was happy people didnt initially target new players.
Seems to have only gone with safe votes all game, voted wrong twice so far, and I know he is voting wrong again today. Also seems most of his posts are 'i agree' even post 14 is just rehashing F&I's argument
He is actually coming out higher than I thought, so will jump him to a 8/10 suspect
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