Posts: 5,157
Threads: 37
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GES
Post 1, 6, 7, 10, 12, 14, 18 - No content
Post 2 - Sandover Lynch, novice mayor based on out of game reasons
Post 3 - Minor Lewwyn suspicions
Post 4 - comment on interested to see a mayor deciding swing
Post 5 - comment on the Cull run, slight suspect of Lewwyn and Cull as wolves
Post 8 - argues baner probably tried to protect novice
Post 9 - Says his post coubnt will stay low, votes on Lewwyn who he thinks is getting ignored
Post 11 - comments about him getting voted on
Post 13 - Nobody going for his target, switches to Selrahc based on Ichabods arguments
Post 15 - Substancial post based on voting behaviours, comesw away concluding that I, Lewwyn and Cull look suspicious. He re-examines this in post 17 looking at posting times, and cant find much of a pattern
Post 16 he just highlights quotes he found interewsting, not much analysis
Analysis,
Identified some early suspects, seems to be considering them but not pushing too hard. Does seem very short on time, but clearly stating voting reasons, and not jumping to any stupid arguments.
Not jumped aroubnd at all, pretty much ignoring the bandwagons
Pretty much convinced he is just a villager with very little time
Suspect rating 2/10
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ok, doing all this posting from work. Should really actually do some, will pick up this task later
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pocketbeetle Wrote:When I've already argued, reasonably successfully, that anyone being 100% certain of a wolf on Day 1 frankly just isn't a villager. No villager knows for certain on Day 1, and no non-seer is 100% certain on Day 2.
In my experience people who think they're 100% certain of someone are almost always villagers. Not that it's a way to clear yourself exactly, but it's the paranoid villager mentality that leads to irrational certainty. Wolves just know, and can concentrate on making a case. Of course their targets are village as often as chance would dictate too.
I'm reading with interest, but not much worth adding, even though I do like the look of my own posts. I'm still waiting for a response to my Meiz vote. There seems to be a common theme that I post stuff and then everyone ignores me. An early vote from me is like the kiss of life. Although Jkaen is now on the radar, a day after I brought him up. I'm pretty sure he's village now myself, for reasons I stated earlier - it's unlikely he's both a new player and a good wolf.
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Irgy Wrote:I'm still waiting for a response to my Meiz vote. There seems to be a common theme that I post stuff and then everyone ignores me.
Don't worry, I am planning to response soon. Just have to wait that my wife leaves to gym, so I don't annoy her too much 
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Irgy Wrote:In my experience people who think they're 100% certain of someone are almost always villagers. Not that it's a way to clear yourself exactly, but it's the paranoid villager mentality that leads to irrational certainty. Wolves just know, and can concentrate on making a case. Of course their targets are village as often as chance would dictate too.
Agreed
Irgy Wrote:I'm reading with interest, but not much worth adding, even though I do like the look of my own posts. I'm still waiting for a response to my Meiz vote. There seems to be a common theme that I post stuff and then everyone ignores me. An early vote from me is like the kiss of life. Although Jkaen is now on the radar, a day after I brought him up. I'm pretty sure he's village now myself, for reasons I stated earlier - it's unlikely he's both a new player and a good wolf.
Hey now, I address everyone one of your posts. And in the case of Meiz I agree you have a good argument, but I find there to be too many wolf suspects on the Rowain train. This is why I suspect Zakalwe over Meiz. Especially since Meiz is acting a lot like he was in WW2 and I'd rather not repeat lynching him as a villager. Not saying he's a villager though. Due to your post I still suspect him, but I'm wary that this is like when Meiz shied from lynching Sandover and instead started the Sareln train on Day 1 of WW2. So I keep a watchful eye out, and instead focus on PB and Zakalwe.
Yes?
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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Meiz Wrote:Don't worry, I am planning to response soon.
Maybe it's time to hurry up a little?
Meiz.
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Irgy Wrote:I'm still waiting for a response to my Meiz vote. There seems to be a common theme that I post stuff and then everyone ignores me. An early vote from me is like the kiss of life. Although Jkaen is now on the radar, a day after I brought him up. I'm pretty sure he's village now myself, for reasons I stated earlier - it's unlikely he's both a new player and a good wolf.
I read your theory. It's not sound enough to garner my vote, personally, but that's not to say its not valuable. You raised some points - commendable. I don't feel there's enough to go on at the moment, however. You said it yourself - if pocketbeetle turns up a 'Wolf, it will incriminate Meiz more. Certainly it would push me to take a much harder look at Meiz. For now, I'm going to let him sit on the back burner (Sandover is more than happy to put pressure on him anyway).
Don't think I don't read and take into consideration your posts, Irgy. I read each one very closely, and analyze them well. I'm sure I'm not alone. I'm just not one to really speak up about it until I find something concrete enough to do so. I don't want you to think your voice goes unnoticed, however - far from it.
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I'm still not conviced that PB is guilty. Partly because he is - in my opinion - right with nearly everything he says:
- Roland is convincing himself again
- Lewwyn is being unclear in what he tries to say
- Rowain is on a personal crusade
That does not mean that PB is innocent either, but it means for me that the people voting for him are not to be trusted as well. So I am at a loss at what to do now.
So, I would first like to add the following:
Everyone is talking here about typical wolf behaviour. But interestingly everything can be typical wolf behaviour for everyone it seems. I said it in WW2 already and even that I played on Team WW there the post I made about it was written from a villager perspective. It really is driving me crazy when first Rowain states that all the wolves changed their vote to him to save PB and then Lewwyn states that it would be crazy if all wolves would change their vote to Rowain and therefore there are surely some innocents within this group.
The same pattern can be seen for several other arguments about wolfish behaviour. Thats why I don't like it.
Anyway, I am willing to cast my vote on PB, if AND only if, I am guaranteed that Lewwyn, Roland, Rowain and all the others being conviced he is a wolf will be voting for Rowain the next day if PB is found innocent.
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Lynch:
4v: Rowain ( novice, pocketbeetle, scooter, Jkaen )
3v: pocketbeetle ( Rowain, Roland, Meiz )
2v: zakalwe ( Lewwyn, Bruindane )
2v: Jkaen ( fire&ice, Mr. Nice Guy )
2v: Meiz ( Irgy, Sandover )
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pocketbeetle Wrote:You always manage to convince yourself wrongly Roland.
It's funny watching it.
Yes, it is. 
Serdoa Wrote:I'm still not conviced that PB is guilty. Partly because he is - in my opinion - right with nearly everything he says:
- Roland is convincing himself again
- Lewwyn is being unclear in what he tries to say
- Rowain is on a personal crusade
That does not mean that PB is innocent either, but it means for me that the people voting for him are not to be trusted as well.
Agree 100%.
Serdoa Wrote:Anyway, I am willing to cast my vote on PB, if AND only if, I am guaranteed that Lewwyn, Roland, Rowain and all the others being conviced he is a wolf will be voting for Rowain the next day if PB is found innocent.
I think most likely they're both innocent or both wolves.
Oh and Lewwyn: If you think you played well in WW2 that says it all about your judgement.
And Jkaen: Those post summaries are quite useful.
I have to run.
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