WW 36 - Horrors in Kingsport [Game Thread]

[Gaspar]

Does this mean you won't be protecting me again tonight?

[Gazglum]

Does this mean you won't be protecting me again tonight?

I am afraid that protection rights for you have been revoked Gaspar. The Fat Man shall darken your door no more.

[AdrienIer]

Don't forget to tell us who you've bodyguarded 10s before deadline in case you die so we know who might have been targeted.

[Doctor Saul]

How will you ever sleep so soundly again, Gaspar?

[Gazglum]

Don't forget to tell us who you've bodyguarded 10s before deadline in case you die so we know who might have been targeted.

I cant' actually, I'll be at the theatre from an hour before deadline. But as I said to Novice, I don't know if its a good idea, because there is no way to tell between me being killed directly and me being killed in the line of duty.

[Gaspar]

How will you ever sleep so soundly again, Gaspar?

Posts like this are better for my health than any fat man at the door, good doctor.

[Gazglum]

GAZGLUM PATENTED NIGHT-TIME POST

So I won’t be around at deadline when I would otherwise post this, so I just want to make sure we all understand that Gaspar is scum.

DAY 1
The main town point for Gaspar is that he was on Mattimeo. But he didn’t want to be.

Day 1 he avoids doing too much scum hunting by saying that we should do a lurker lynch. This is a town point, because it does leave Mattimeo open to danger. But in hindsight its less town than I thought, because he stresses that Sunrise is really his choice.

I think we pretty much have to lynch sunrise or Mattimeo if they don't have anything to say. Mattimeo's lone post was a very defensive overreaction to dtay; sunrise's collection is the opening nothing vote, a correction to the nothing vote, a very aggressive overreaction to Mattimeo and then dialing back a hair in a follow-up with a nothing question he never followed up on.

It probably isn't fair to sunrise but I actually find the dial-back makes me suspect him more - like an "oh noes I said too much" thing. Plus if he flips red it might answer a bit of the dtay question for me. Mattimeo, I can sort of see just throwing his post out and moving on. I don't think either is especially likely to contribute long term either. I guess we'll see what the next 12 hours give us.

So, lynch a lurker guys, but make it Sunrise. This makes Sunrise town, by the way, because he is scum Gaspar's mislynch choice.

The day moves on,

Still prefer Matt or sunrise over other targets. I agree with novices interpretation of Adrieniers actions, but think we'll know better after a day or two.

Mattimeo joins him on Sunrise, trying to get a bandwagon going. But Sunrise, Rowain, me and Adrien are all onto Mattimeo then, so perhaps he thinks it would start to look suspicious for Gaspar to remain on Sunrise when he has said he’s fine lynching Mattimeo too.

So Gaspar switches to Mattimeo as well, but he doesn’t want to be there so he immediately starts working to kill the lynch:

Mattimeo

Money where my mouth is.

I don't love my company, though, so previous statement statemh.

@Rowain: I don't really love most of my company. Lot of lurkers and people I fos'd.

Also don't like how easy Matt is going down.

But Gaspar stirreth the pot in vain, because everybody else is happy to stick on Mattimeo. And so even though Gaspar apparently doesn’t like it, he sticks it out quietly.

In his defence Gaspar said to Saul:

Honestly, if I am scum I know Matt is scum. Why on earth would I hedge? I'd want the full bounty of town points for that, wouldn't I?

But of course he would hedge because it’s Day 1 and he knows there is likely to be a lot of jumping before deadline. He wants to have flexibility to run with it.

And indeed at the end of the day there is a mad scramble to Zak. Clearly this includes a lot of cold-feet town (including Fenn and Q), likely a majority. Discussions in the scum thread – should they all try to swing to Zak? But now it’s too risky because of so many votes on Mattimeo, they calculate that getting a majority elsewhere isn’t likely to happen, and Mattimeo would tell them to bus him instead. Better to get town points now and then mislynch later.

So end of day they’ve lost a friend, but they can spin it by putting the focus on the Zak voters. Nightkill Zak to prove his innocence, then you get two days of tasty mislynches by going after people who voted for him.

Day 2

Gaspar can relax here because we all played badly. He puts in good scum work, chatting away. Joins Lewwyn on Fenn, prods Lewwyn, prods Dtay, scums a bit at Adrien, ‘Q feels so scummy’, ‘one of Rowain, Novice or Lewwyn is scum’, Jabbz should defend by playing. It’s like a Summer day on the river, Gaspar can just glide with the current, suspecting everybody, hunting nobody. Fun times.

He does rouse himself to take a Q stand:

For whatever it's worth, I think the case on Qg has merit and agree that he's a good scum player, there's something to his overall tone that makes him feel earnest to me though. Not enough for me to defend him but enough that I'm not not comfortable with helping him hang.

And

I don't see a compelling reason to switch my vote though. Case on Qg makes some sense but I like the feel of his posts today. I also don't trust novice, who's been driving that bus.

Which is interesting because he do his best to get Q lynched the next day.

So who DOES Gaspar go with? Jabbz! Why? ‘To keep things interesting’ at first, (ie: pressure vote), but then he never switches off, because ‘Jabbz reminds me of myself’. Good hunting Sherlock.

I'm not going to be around much tomorrow, moving sucks, I'll go with Jabbz to keep things interesting since I lack enough conviction on novice or Lewwyn to stick wtih them on low info, though I still think it fairly likely one of them is scum.

Note that this is where we have the blushing bridesmaid Gaspar begin. He will say repeatedly from this moment that one of Rowain, Novice or Lewwyn is scum, but he won’t investigate them yet because it’s just Too Hard. He needs more info Day 2.
So Gaspar skates to the end of the line Day 2 and keeps his hands clean. He talked a lot, but basically did nothing more than the rest of us.

DAY 3
Gaspar promises to rouse himself. He will ‘drive’ a bit. But what does that come down to?

Lewwyn or Novice are scum! But it’s still too hard! He still needs more info! He is unable to take a stand, even though he knows their play much better than a lot of the rest of the village who are happy to vote them or interrogate them.

So even though Novice or Lewwyn are apparently evil ringleaders, Gaspar jumps on Q when he takes off again, bringing this fresh new analysis to the table:

Yeah, okay.

Qgqqqqq

Ok, up to this point Gaspar could be town, no smoking gun, but he really scummed hard at the end of Day 3.

When I challenged Gaspar that he was coasting on his big Drive day, he said,

@Gazglum - Sorry I'm not living up to your expectations. Just not had quite the time to really drive the way I wanted. I don't think I've been hedging so much as maybe over-explaining my thoughts. When I'm sure, you'll know it.

I think I've probably been too focused on novice and Lewwyn. That's most likely scars from getting burned by Lewwyn last game I played. If it turns out he rolled scum, I want to make sure not to miss it and novice is always tough to pin a role because he's a bit enigmatic. I'm going to try and forget about them for a little while.

He’s certainly burbled away about Novice and Lewwyn, but has he voted them? No. Has he pressured them? No. Has he done anything? No. But he pretends like he has been leading this quixotic crusade against the Vets.

I tell him straight that I think he is wrong on Q, and he says the defense is ‘Pretty Compelling’, but…

We're not going to get a lynch on Lewwyn, Gazglum. Not right now, in this village. Plus I wouldn't mind getting the day plus another NK to get a better sense of what's going on with he and novice. So who else do you like enough as a target?

It’s too hard? It’s TOO HARD? Novice and Lewwyn already have votes. Novice has been a major suspect for two days, and Gaspar has SAID he think he could be scum? But now we can’t vote them because they are unlynchable.

I could possibly, POSSIBLY, still buy this as town if Gaspar then worked to get a compromise candidate. But he doesn’t. He says he agrees the case for Q being innocent is compelling, he says Day 2 that he thinks Q is ernest, but he VOTES HIM ANYWAY.

Gaspar voted to lynch a player he admitted was not a good case. He did NOT vote to lynch Novice, who he had said was ‘plausibly scum’ and a ‘likely ringleader’. And this was when the votes ended up split almost evenly between Q and Novice. So Gaspar could have switched to Novice and helped drive that home, but he didn't, because of course it was 'impossible'.

What a scumbo. What a scumbo.

Gaspar actively tried to shut down the move away from Q by saying it would be impossible to push through another candidate. He did not hunting of his own. He got his mislynch.

What is his excuse?

We're not going to get a lynch on Lewwyn, Gazglum. Not right now, in this village. Plus I wouldn't mind getting the day plus another NK to get a better sense of what's going on with he and novice. So who else do you like enough as a target?

He needs. More. Time. The same thing he has been saying since Day 2. He is the Hamlet of Scum.

Gaspar is 100% scum. Take him out tomorrow.

THE BIG PICTURE
But why would he do all this? Why not just kill off a Vet if he could? As he says:

And not for nothing but scum Gaspar would be all over a novice or Lewwyn lynch.

Indeed he would, unless one (or both) of Novice and Lewwyn are scum. This is the obvious answer – Gaspar is trying to protect his scumbuddy long enough to kill off other players who might vote Vets (Zak, Rowain). By the time he has had ‘enough time’, they will be able to bully the village into a loss.

The other possible reason is that he needed Q killed and Novice alive so he could do the 1-2 mislynch punch, as Novice pointed out himself. Mislynch Q > say ‘if Q flips town it will give us good leads’ > Mislynch Novice. Then they are probably at LyLo.

So who are his buddies? Once Gaspar flips scum tomorrow night, it will be easier to work out, but I would say definitely one of Novice or Lewwyn. My guess is Lewwyn, and that Novice is a patsy, but it could easily be Novice who was bad.

Who else? Gut feeling now, I would say Brick. 3 days, 81 posts, Brick still has done nothing for the village. I was suspicious of a Gaspar/Brick team, so I asked Brick specifically about Gaspar and got this:

Hmm, now that I think about it, I haven't really thought about Gaspar much. Today he seems to have all of the same reads as me (looking at Q, Lewwyn, and novice). I'll take a look at some of his arguments here in a little bit.

Thanks Brick. Take a stand.

Anyway, lynch Gaspar if I’m not around tomorrow. Lewwyn or Novice, whichever one of you is town better help lead that crusade.

[AdrienIer]

I like this post Gazglum, but I disagree on Lewwyn being the scumbuddy now that Q has flipped town.
He tried to rouse the village on D2 when Q was in the lead and that's not really a scum action. I'll reread Gaspar Jabbz and Brick now in case I get targeted somehow.

[AdrienIer]

In light of what Gazglum has said, here are more Gaspar thoughts.

During D2 and N2 he said this

Ultimately, I don't really like voting on voting record on D2. Get us to a point where we've got 4-5 players out of the game and its easier to make those conclusions. I think the biggest thing you can see on D2 is changes in behavior now that we have some info/history. That's why I was skeptical on dtay. That's why I am skeptical on Lewwyn (along with the other reasons already stated) though I confess that Lewwyn makes a valid point in his rebuttal.

Anyway, who dies tonight should clear the picture slightly and at least personally I'll try and drive a little more next day.

He didn't really do much yesterday though (except NOT going after Lewwyn and Novice).

Then this happens :

I didn't promise a tour de force, btw. I don't know if I have that in me anymore. I just promised I'd try and be a bit more proactive.

I probably don't have time for a full-scale reread/reassess tonight but right now I feel more certain that either novice or Lewwyn is scum. I'd like it if some of the players with let's say, less than 5 RB WW games under their belt would chime in with opinions on the two of them. I wonder if their game reads different when you don't have a long-history muddled baseline on them.

So he backpedals on really driving the day, and asks people with less than 5 RB WW games to give opinions on Lewwyn and Novice. How many people would fit that criteria ? 2 or 3 right ? Dtay, myself, maybe Jabbz IDK if he's been around for long. Yet at the minute I make a case on Lewwyn this happens

@Gazglum - Sorry I'm not living up to your expectations. Just not had quite the time to really drive the way I wanted. I don't think I've been hedging so much as maybe over-explaining my thoughts. When I'm sure, you'll know it.

I think I've probably been too focused on novice and Lewwyn. That's most likely scars from getting burned by Lewwyn last game I played. If it turns out he rolled scum, I want to make sure not to miss it and novice is always tough to pin a role because he's a bit enigmatic. I'm going to try and forget about them for a little while.

Sunrise is a fine lynch because he's not really playing but I just feel like maybe he's being propped up as a compromise candidate because we're all bored with voting for Qg and I think his lynch still gives us the most information. I dislike policy lynches in a place where we have real information but I'm not sure how much real information we have. Sunrise felt D1 scummy but since then has just felt like usual, super busy sunrise. That doesn't really mean anything. Do we want to lynch that guy or the guy half the town has thought scummy enough to vote multiple times at this point? I mean, if nothing else, if he wriggles off the hook we're just going to do this again tomorrow and I don't see how that's remotely productive.

1) he doesn't have the time (yet he's done several rereads already).
2) he's not going to go after novice or Lewwyn. What ? You asked for other opinions on the Lewwyn/Novice case, you got them and you WALK AWAY ? I just noted that Dtay also gave his opinion several times on details involving Novice and Lewwyn, even though I couldn't find a grand analysis post about them. So he got his answers. Time to lead a crusade dude, make a stand and lead the town to victory. At least make a stand and curse at the town for not following you. I'll be kind and not vote for you right at the start to give you a chance to do this.

[Jabbz]

GG Qg. I'm glad I wasn't around to be taunted by the "it almost worked" line. Pesky kids.