WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[uberfish]

Uberfish, it seems that you like misreading my words or twisting them.

Lime bitI did not imply that the run on me was manipulated by wolves either. I mentioned the runs on Sareln, Ichabod and Pindicator as well as the mini-run on me and suggested that at least one of them was being manipulated by wolves. There was no specifying of which one. So again, you have twisted my words.

firstly, saying that "at least one of these runs" is being manipulated by wolves is extremely vague. I mean, at least 1 in 4 wagons is probably going to have active wolves on it just by random chance. And as you've said that you don't like all the wagons. Whom do you think are the wolves pushing the wagons? And since you put your own wagon on the list, you are implying that it was potentially manipulated by wolves.

Orange Bit -> I doubt that even if thestick was bussed, all wolves would act the same. If they did it would be easy to find them. Some wolves will have tried to look as if they were saving him and some not if they have any sense, so that if one thread gets unravelled and a few mafia are caught, some other mafia will not get caught by it and may even gain cover by it. You're effectively saying "a mafia would never do that", which is a flimsy excuse at best.

Sure you can never say "never", but the point of a bus is to buy people cover, and putting players in the most incriminating position after the lynch makes no sense! Bussing mafia wants villagers to be exposing themselves on the alternate wagons and maybe gain a mislynch or two out of it. Not everyone would be on the bus - but a far more likely scenario would be 3 on the bus, and 2 either in an early position on the counter wagon or parked on an irrelevant target.

Ok it's possible scum might be either totally uncoordinated or running a deeper multi layered gambit than anything we've yet seen, but if your working theory is mafia bus, you should be pushing the likely bussers, not players in the worst spots on the anti-bus.

Blue bit -> Again you are twisting my words. I was not tying your actions to the Sareln lynch or saying your vote on me was as a result of that.

What I actually said was that since the sareln lead had collapsed, there was no candidate who was far ahead and plenty of noise about a few candidates. This amount of candidates with relatively similar vote counts means that it is easy for the mafia to start manipulating momentum on one of those people who is innocent to save any who aren't.

Er, you accused me in the same paragraph of being a wolf manipulating your wagon:

Thus, I am going to go back to uberfish as he's the main person advocating my lynch and I think that with the collapse of Sareln's large lead in the lynch vote, there is a lot greater scope for wolfish manipulation and has chosen me as one of those wagons to try and get moving

On Mattimeo

I voted for Mattimeo because out of all the cases at the time, his was the only one that even half convinced me and I was worried about just having one single candidate in for lynching, as there hadn't been much movement of alternative targets which normally suggests a mislynch this early imo.

Ok, if you felt thestick was a mislynch, then why would you suspect me for sticking to the belief that thestick was a mislynch later on? I mean, you don't suspect Sareln and didn't like that wagon, and Sareln and myself had the same voting profile and were being pushed by the same people.

And you didn't feel that 5 players creating a wagon on Matt out of nowhere was suspicious at all?

as to the role name thing, I don't see much flavour difference between "spy" and "watcher", but I can actually see you seeing a difference.

[pindicator]

Still catching up. I'm through post 840 and will follow this up with notes on my initial read of 770-840. But what strikes me is the mislynch attempt on me started when Sareln was in the lead. Now we've had a lot of dirt thrown around, and by a glance at that last vote count its shifted off me and on to others. But this movement looks like it was all to save Sareln

Sareln

[Rowain]

Still catching up. I'm through post 840 and will follow this up with notes on my initial read of 770-840. But what strikes me is the mislynch attempt on me started when Sareln was in the lead. Now we've had a lot of dirt thrown around, and by a glance at that last vote count its shifted off me and on to others. But this movement looks like it was all to save Sareln

Sareln

The votes that hopped on you after Sarelns post were from novice, catwalk, waterbat. So whom of those 3 do you think are scum and tried to save Sareln?

[pindicator]

There's a broader context here too. Two games ago pindicator specifically made a WTF last-minute switch to avoid getting killed by the wolves, which worked (I think it was the night you and Zak died together.) He did something similar last game which made me argue that we should eat him. And his Merovech vote fits a similar pattern.

I guess it's stupid to have my vote on someone I'm hunting scum with.

Ichabod

Guess I need a new trick I figured being away would make me an easier target too, although I certainly didn't plan to line it up with my bday

You know what really surprises me injera? Not that someone's figured my MO - but that novice of all people voted for me right after you put it out there. Him and zak were the two I was hunting scum with when I did that in WW14; I would have thought of all people in this game he would be the one to notice that I was doing the same thing as I did in WW14.

@Bigger Perhaps he didn't move to you because that would be too obvious. But his sly moving from thestick brought you into danger(it needed only another villager getting swayed by thesticks claim to get you swinging).

Afterall he was already on Mattimeo (the first attempt to save thestick) so beeing on both alternates wouldn't be the best move for wolves.
While there are other good candidates I do feel pindicator is the right choice today.

Yes, I was on Mattimeo. Good eye, Rowain! Why was I on Mattimeo? We had several people (uberfish & serdoa IIRC) saying they wanted to vote Mattimeo but they didn't think anybody would support them so they wouldn't do it. That struck me as suspicious - not that a person says they might vote, that happens a lot; but that several people were saying it. So I decided to look at Mattimeo and then gave a vote to see who would follow. I was very surprised by the amount of votes it received and how fast they came in.

Very similar to the way votes came in on me, I think.

Rowain, btw, I'm undecided on you. I remember you latching on to me in WW14, so I can understand it happening again here. But there are other people who have a very similar voting record than me in Day 1 - and if that is the main suspicion then what sets me apart from them in your eyes as the better lynch candidate?

Twinkletoes

Note for the future: Molach votes off Sareln and onto Twinkletoes. This is the moment where Sareln comes out of his clear lead and I am now tied with him with 5 votes. (He gives his explanation for voting Twinkletoes the post before, btw)

So to me here, he is voting because Marovech tried to apply pressure with 2 minutes left, not because of the switch from thestick, an event that Novice, who is now voting for Pind too I believe, also found suspicious at the time

Thank you jkaen! I'm glad somebody went back and read the altercation at the end of Day 1 intsesad of taking people's interpretations on it That is the reason; I had cold feet on thestick after his claim. Wish I hadn't, and wish I had been keeping track of the vote count.


Dammit, just got assigned a project at work. Dunno how much farther I'm going to get


Bigger for mayor. Dunno about novice now

[Tasunke]

Of those three? I know you asked the question of him, but I think its a question anyone can answer (to their own opinion).

I think I can agree that a lot of the movement away from Sareln could have been Werewolf/based. As for myself, before Uberfish's 903 post of course, I saw the momentum switching to Uber (an equal suspect of mine, at that time, due to the similarity of the cases), and so I voted for him. That was when he got 6 votes really REALLY fast.

Anyways, CLEARLY there is a wolf influence in the pile because Sareln, in fact, was the start of the pile. So if he is a wolf (which I think he is) HIS involvement alone would make it wolf-influenced. And in one way or another, Novice/Catwalk/Waterbat followed suit.

I would be willing to believe that, between Sareln's reputation before I joined (he hasn't been early mislynched SINCE I joined, if I recall), and between Novice's largely villager appearance at the beginning of Day1, combined with Gaspar's GENEROUS contributions as to Sareln's "supposed innocence" wolf-Novice was able to have enough traction to possibly swing Catwalk and Waterbat his way.

Now, assuming a village/Catwalk, Catwalk is still convinced that Novice is our "most villagerish person" at the moment. This alone could be seen as somewhat scummy, I mean, yes I am aware that I am perhaps in the minority in thinking of Novice as a wolf for this game, but still most that due think village still keep a degree of reservation. Meanwhile Catwalk ... it seems like he is willing to take Novice's innocence on 'faith'. Now, from the opposite perspective, if NOVICE is a villager, for some strange reason, then it could be an easy Catwalk/wolf move to make to pretend like he "thinks" novice is the most trusted if he simply had a cheat sheet*

*of course I do not think that Novice is innocent, nor do I think that Catwalk is a wolf, per se, BUT if Novice IS somehow proven innocent, I think that would make Catwalk look a LOT more scummy.

So my answer then, is that although Catwalk and Waterbat are not anywhere near the level of "confirmed villager" I would say that the wolf-influence of the Pindi BW would be Novice and Sareln.

[Rowain]

But there are other people who have a very similar voting record than me in Day 1 - and if that is the main suspicion then what sets me apart from them in your eyes as the better lynch candidate?

Really ??? tell me those please? Of those voting Mattimeo 3 people went to unvote (to llok what happens): You, TT and thestick (a scum). from those 2 latch onto thestick at a time the vote does seemingly not matter (=thestick is already clear in lead): you and TT and from those 1 jumps ship right before the end: you.
In short your way of voting is absolutly unique.

PS about the other 3 Mattimeo-voter: Sareln+uberfish moved to Bigger, Serdoa moved to thestick and stayed there.

Note for the future: Molach votes off Sareln and onto Twinkletoes. This is the moment where Sareln comes out of his clear lead and I am now tied with him with 5 votes. (He gives his explanation for voting Twinkletoes the post before, btw)

Yes and you know what happens right at the moment you are in leading haeadto head with Sareln? You suddenly get assistance: Jkaen jumps in and starts a lot of defending posts and the uberfish-Bw starts to roll. With astonishing speed to boot.

[uberfish]

Reading Ichabod as leaning village due to emotional responses more than anything, I read the fact that he suddenly thought I was scummy after asking him a fairly innocent question as him being in a stressed state due to being persecuted-town (I also think scum Ichabod in a tight spot would try to avoid antagonizing me, an aggressive player that had been uninvolved in the debate surrounding him up to that point)

[Rowain]

*of course I do not think that Novice is innocent, nor do I think that Catwalk is a wolf, per se, BUT if Novice IS somehow proven innocent, I think that would make Catwalk look a LOT more scummy.

So my answer then, is that although Catwalk and Waterbat are not anywhere near the level of "confirmed villager" I would say that the wolf-influence of the Pindi BW would be Novice and Sareln.

Why don't you lobby for a novice-lynch then? Apparently you are quite convinced he is a wolf.

[Tasunke]

I would like to ask of Bigger, Waterbat, Selrahc, Uberfish, and Molach to please, please switch to Sareln.

Of you, I hope, you could see the wisdom in voting Sareln at this time. As a villager he has learned how to lurk *well*. I will admit that in WW11? 12? He played a good WW game, but right now it seems that the wolves may be trying some sort of *cute* strategy or something because, other than propping Novice up for mayor, I haven't seen any clever plays yet enacted by the wolves (that I could see). Therefore, I can see how even though Sareln played a wolf well in that game, he might not be able to now. Particularly telling is with how much vigor Novice and Gaspar defended his "innocence."

What is interesting is that Sareln's argument against his lynch (or rather, his argument directly towards me at least) is that I have been simply repeating the same idea with little to no evidence. His adoption of two wolf-based BWs seems, at least to me, to at least be moderate evidence (or at least little to moderate evidence) ... but NO evidence? The fact that he would emphasize an idea that there is no evidence whatsoever (what he did) or even to simply place it on the continuous range (zero to little vs little to moderate) seems, to me, an exagerration.

Bigger, you have voted Sareln in the past, perhaps you could better explain to the other Uberfish voters as to why a Sareln lynch makes sense?

Uberfish, if you switch your vote off of Twinkletoes ... if you can take a step back and look at other targets, perhaps he will be less inclined to revenge vote you, or whatnot, and perhaps he will also be willing to vote for Sareln. If both the Uberfish and Twinkletoes pushes could return to Sareln, I would consider this village a much safer place.

Not really sure what to think about the Ichabod wagon ... but I KNOW* that we should have a good lynch with Sareln. So I would ask the Ichabod voters to reconsider Sareln.

*well, obviously I don't know, but still.

[pindicator]

Project is thankfully shorter than I feared.

Really ??? tell me those please? Of those voting Mattimeo 3 people went to unvote (to llok what happens): You, TT and thestick (a scum). from those 2 latch onto thestick at a time the vote does seemingly not matter (=thestick is already clear in lead): you and TT and from those 1 jumps ship right before the end: you.
In short your way of voting is absolutly unique.

PS about the other 3 Mattimeo-voter: Sareln+uberfish moved to Bigger, Serdoa moved to thestick and stayed there.

I said similar, not unique. Rowain, don't twist my words. You're smarter than that and it makes me think it's deliberate.

And why do you omit the people who went straight from Mattimeo to Bigger without an unvote? Why exclude them from your suspicions?

Why are you defending Sareln?