WW 19 Game Thread - Mobster Mayhem - GAME OVER

[Ryan]

Zak I still prefer waiting till day 3. If we are gonna lynch based on items. Vigi is a confirmed town so is the seer.

[Qgqqqqq]

Why do you mention it?
Is it because he has the same number of posts as you

[Serdoa]

I think Waterbat is likely scum, but we want that gas can. And the rules prevent him from having it destroyed by passing it to his night kill target.

Of course, if he is scum, he simply won't pass it on. And tell that he tried but unfortunately the one he passed it on was nightkilled. The only ones to pass it on which are with enough certainty village are novice and I so it is not easy to verify that he is lieing. In the end, you might have tomorrow the same situation as today with waterbat claiming to hold the gas can. If he is scum and has this item, village won't get it ever.

(Yes, Azza could theoretically picklock it. IF Azza is village himself - which again there is no way to verify right now.)

Now that Waterbats claimed ( ) we need to put off his lynch till either a countercclaim or the preson he says hes passing to confirm it.

A counter-claim will only happen if waterbat is lieing. But lieing or telling the truth has no bearing on his alignment, so without counter-claim all we know is that he probably indeed has the gas can (or that whoever has it might have good reason not to talk about it). And the confirmation of someone he passed it to is worth nothing if it isn't novice or me, as for everyone else you do not know their alignment, so he might have passed it to a scum-buddy. But even if he passed it to a villager, it could be a potentially risky scum-move, trying to get confirmed villager-status this way, having higher chances to get into a 2-2 endgame at night, what would be enough for them to win even with the gas-can around. And waterbat certainly is one of those that can talk his way out of mostly everything so I wouldn't put such a plan past him. Especially if he fears getting lynched anyway, because losing another scum or giving the village the gas can would both be equally bad imo.

In the end, even if he passes the gas can this night AND it is received by novice or me, I would still request his lynch.

[zakalwe]

Zak I still prefer waiting till day 3. If we are gonna lynch based on items. Vigi is a confirmed town so is the seer.

Those are of course exceptions, because we know the vig shot a scum, and we know the seer is innocent via mod confirmation. But we can't know for sure how the other items were distributed.

BTW, Selrahc, MJW is not confirmed innocent. At least I don't see why he would be.

In fact, he really should have saved that shot for a better occasion, IMO. I can see why he'd want to do it as a villager, but it was also the perfect excuse for scum to cash in an extra kill.

[zakalwe]

Why do you mention it?
Is it because he has the same number of posts as you

Is this for me?

[novice]

Waterbat's story is consistent, at least, so he definitely has the gas can. He might be scum, of course, I assigned the gas can to scum earlier because it feels like a very powerful town item. Which means we want it. So I'm ok with putting waterbat off until tomorrow, he isn't at the top of my suspect list anyway. Merovech is.

[zakalwe]

Why do you mention it?
Is it because he has the same number of posts as you

Is this for me?

Ah, you're talking about Gaspar.

[waterbat]

Haha. That's what I said would happen serdoa I'll pass it and eat the lynch. Maybe the scanner will hit true and serve us up a scum D3 (reveal just before night deadline?) and buy me another day. That night the new scanner can scan me N3 and add me to the list of the confirmed.

Fake edit: removed a bunch of other fantasies that were hilarious, but could get me in trouble.

[Serdoa]

DA MATHS:
Assumption of 4 scum to start.
Assumption that the Ouija board scanned somebody innocent
Assumption that none of these people are the same (UV=WUOS for example)
13 player remaining
3 snitches, 10 mobsters.
Now to my mind, we also have cleared villagers. A substantial portion of them.
Novice, Serdoa, Unclaimed Vig(UV), MJW, Unclaimed Ouija(UO), Whoever Unclaimed Ouija Scanned(WUOS)

6 out of 10 are already cleared. Assuming they all reveal themselves, then there are 7 unsafes. Now we can kill 2 of those unsafes with the hold out pistol, so the ratio is actually 6:5 clear:unclear.

That is *just* within the bounds for the wolves to win, if the game goes in the worst possible way in terms of target selection.
(Today as day 1)
Day 1, 13-10:3 (6:7) villager lynched, pistol pass, trusted villager night killed.
Day 2, 11-8:3 (5:6) villager lynched, villager night killed by pistol, trusted villager night killed.
Day 3, 8-5:3 (4:4) Villager lynched, Only wolves remain untrusted, Trusted Villager night killed. If the villagers had another day, they would have a guaranteed wolf lynch, and a pistol night kill to accompany it... but instead
Day 4, 6-3:3 Wolf win.

But the only way for the wolves to ensure that? Make sure that not one more villager gets trusted status(or the day 3 ratio becomes 5:3, wolves only as targets). Make sure that none of the remaining vig shots hit wolf. Make sure that none of the lynches hit wolf. Make sure not to hit the gas can. If even one of those things happens, then the wolves have got a guaranteed loss on their hands.

Or not. The biggest break for the village is the pistol. If the pistol is lost, either by death or by theft, then the math breaks down, and the wolves have a slight margin, as the ratio of trusted to untrusted villagers won't dip against the wolves. What it does mean though is that from this point forth, their kills are almost locked in. They need to kill guaranteed villagers. Anybody who doesn't fall into the guaranteed six, is now completely immune to night kills unless they become claimed.

It also means that if you are one of the "anonymous cleared" and you fall under lynch threat, do not let yourself die.

Yeah. Day 1 shortly before lynch you think you have to post meta-speculation. Day 2, when we are actually in a very important phase and it would be interesting to hear the opinion of all villagers... you don't even comment on anything that happend. Instead, another meta post. Even worse, a post that states (imo again) lies. Like that MJW is a cleared villager - which he really isn't in no way.

Selrahc, are you doing that on purpose. Do you want to get lynched? I really don't get it, but if I am wrong, than please, start actually to hunt wolves, otherwise you certainly are right now my number one of the uncleared to get clarification about.

Selrahc

[zakalwe]

I'm fine with Merovech too. Not sure what the tally is, but if there's no traction on Q, I'll switch.